Chinese Economics Thread

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Its a toss up. From my casual understanding, I don't think POS 2 is strictly needed because by the time it gets done (2030?) China would be going full throttle with renewables.

And for backup, coal plants are going to be used. Russia IMO needs to come up with a lucrative offer for China to accept it.

Don't forget this news:
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in an energy scarce world which is what we're headed towards, refining the gas to chemicals like ethylene is an option that China will have that any country that is forced to burn their petrochemical feedstock will not have.
 

YVHunter

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The financial sector in China is severely underdeveloped (capital markets and risk management) which causes massive piles of savings to pile up without good investments: this causes a lack of unicorns/startups and firm size from a lack of good equity structures to invest in, a persistent credit crunch as securitized products, structured debt products and corporate bond markets don't exist to be able to effectively manage the risk of loans to corporates and real estate bubbles since its one asset class that investors in China can simultaneously use as a house.
are you just here to post reddit tier "analysis" or what?
 

Biscuits

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China should get some low level immigration officer to reply that he should apply for his visa via the normal procedures
Let him in and then arrest him to investigate his complicity in American forced labor sold to unwitting Chinese customers.

Surely this senator is part of a state where penal labor is legal? What are the ethnic makeup of the prisoners? On what charges where they incarcerated? Is there a difference between what incarcenates a non white inmate and a white one? How about a defendant connected with the American government and a defendant that's not? Accepting labor from the illegally incarcerated would not be allowed by China's laws. So these questions all need to be asked to Mr. Smith.

If he can deliver satisfactory answers, his state can be considered free from forced labor and he can be released and visit as many prisons in China he likes, using the same channels as other prison visitors.
 

henrik

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Considering the events of last year this piece of data comes at no surprise. But 15 new unicorns compared to the US's 179 for 2022 is still a pretty damning number and does explain why the youth unemployment data for the 1st quarter has been equally bleak despite the economic rebound. One can only hope this year will see a change in fortunes so that the recovery can have a more solid footing.

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Big technology companies are the source of capital. But the suppression of big technology companies like alibaba and tencent, had discouraged new investments into new startups.
 

USTBasisRollCarry

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No thanks to your financial “innovations”. Only retards would follow your path of self-destruction.
What innovation is "path of self-destruction"? China is moving towards the US - be it with the development of asset-backed debt instruments, China Government Bond futures, a registration-based system for stocks, defined contribution tax-advantaged retirement accounts, a substantial repo market from banks and insurance companies, the use of insurance company asset managers to spur the development of a corporate bond market, the growth of structured products such as CLOs and CDOs and the growth of alternative investment mechanisms such as private equity and venture capital, etc, etc.

All of these newer financial instruments are able to intermediate better between savers and households/corporates in need of credit for all investors at every level of risk while simultaneously, moving the risk off of financial sector balance sheets and to household balance sheets where it is less risky. It is much more efficient for the economy for savings to be used in funding corporate investment than it is for cash just to be sitting at a central bank earning interest
 

tphuang

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I have to say the quality of this thread is really going down. This is a Chinese economics thread. Let's stay on topic rather than talking about how much you don't like random twitter takes. There are enough low quality threads on this forum that we don't need another one here.
 

tphuang

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I posted my thoughts on the incredibly competitive nature of Chines local market with respect to energy storage system

I didn't fully spell it out there, but realistically this has replicated in many other sectors. So, ESS will be dominated by China worldwide completely like solar has. And since people don't think about it that much, there hasn't been much alarm raised, even though it's a hugely important industry in the move toward renewables.

I do think green hydrogen is the next here. Competition in China will be too tough and only allow the strongest to survive.

in terms of other areas, I think Chinese electric 2-wheelers are going to become even more dominant. Same with new energy commercial vehicles (which don't attract as much attention as passenger vehicles).

And the one that will probably scare Western countries the most is mature process semiconductors.
 

tphuang

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another big news here. China & Brazil are getting more economically integrated. And the best part is when Chinese e-commerce & tech giants become embedded in the local culture like Shein and Alibaba might achieve. And hopefully Huawei with their ICT products and cloud data centers.

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so this is great. 100k jobs and mature local office. Should strengthen their position in all of south america

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came right after Brazil scrapped the tax proposal that would've hurt them

Jack Ma is also visiting Brazil to expedite Alibaba expansion
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right after Cainiao partnered up w/ Brazil Post for local logistics infrastructure
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Looks like Brazil has accepted Chinese tech/e-commerce giants market presence in return for them opening large local operations. Seems like a win-win situation

Quite important for companies like Shein & Alibaba to do well in Latam & other global south countries given the political heat on Chinese tech firms in America. I see more moves like this & HW in Saudi Arabia where Chinese tech firms relocate and base more of their global operation in "friendly" countries with large growth potential
 

USTBasisRollCarry

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are you just here to post reddit tier "analysis" or what?
The role of the financial sector is important to startup formation since startups, being the capital light and risky industries that they are, will inherently be excluded from the most traditional finance -> a loan made by a bank collateralized by business capital that is held on the bank balance sheet
 

tphuang

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What innovation is "path of self-destruction"? China is moving towards the US - be it with the development of asset-backed debt instruments, China Government Bond futures, a registration-based system for stocks, defined contribution tax-advantaged retirement accounts, a substantial repo market from banks and insurance companies, the use of insurance company asset managers to spur the development of a corporate bond market, the growth of structured products such as CLOs and CDOs and the growth of alternative investment mechanisms such as private equity and venture capital, etc, etc.

All of these newer financial instruments are able to intermediate better between savers and households/corporates in need of credit for all investors at every level of risk while simultaneously, moving the risk off of financial sector balance sheets and to household balance sheets where it is less risky. It is much more efficient for the economy for savings to be used in funding corporate investment than it is for cash just to be sitting at a central bank earning interest
some of that stuff is useful and others are not. it would be a really stupid idea for china to copy what Wall Street has created. and i say this as someone who has worked here for over 15 years.

The role of the financial sector is important to startup formation since startups, being the capital light and risky industries that they are, will inherently be excluded from the most traditional finance -> a loan made by a bank collateralized by business capital that is held on the bank balance sheet
Yet, Chinese startups have functioned in its own financial structure for 30 years and developed many successful companies. And the Chinese financial system hasn't yet seen the same level of meltdown we've seen in Western one in 2008 and again now.
 
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