Chinese Economics Thread

In4ser

Junior Member
Doing the opposite of what he says is the way forward for China: to establish a national, single payer healthcare system, and build a Medicare style public retirement pension system.
As long you mean self-funded retirement pensions, e.g. a percentage auto deducted from the paycheck into a locked retirement account.

Otherwise, it may be a bad idea as most retirement programs become Ponzi schemes, which is only feasible as long as the working-age people are stable or growing. However, China's aging demographic is inverted and would be unsustainable in China because of too many elderly and not enough younger workers. As people age, it becomes an untouchable entitlement as they represent more and more of the population despite the need to raise the retirement age.
 

Feima

Junior Member
Registered Member
As long you mean self-funded retirement pensions, e.g. a percentage auto deducted from the paycheck into a locked retirement account.

Otherwise, it may be a bad idea as most retirement programs become Ponzi schemes, which is only feasible as long as the working-age people are stable or growing. However, China's aging demographic is inverted and would be unsustainable in China because of too many elderly and not enough younger workers. As people age, it becomes an untouchable entitlement as they represent more and more of the population despite the need to raise the retirement age.

Is China's retirement scheme defined benefits? If yes that is a time bomb. China only became seriously rich in the last 20 years or so, too early IMO for the state to guarantee defined benefits retirement, especially in view of the demographic trend. A defined contributions retirement scheme with appropriate state-supported add-ons is more sustainable.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
at this pace, realistically America is on pace to become another natural resource exporter to China, since it is unwilling to export anything with technology in there. This will have devastating consequences on Boeing & other companies.

And when China is in trouble if food security someday somehow (unlikely though) ... the US would no hesitate to ban the export of the grain ... I have no doubt at all
 

xlitter

Junior Member
Registered Member
For China, boosting consumption has been as elusive as health-care reform in the United States: there has long been a consensus on the need for change but little to show for it. The main difference, however, is that China is still far below U.S. levels of GDP per capita, and relying on consumption is Beijing’s best bet to draw level. Whether it likes it or not, China faces a stark choice. It can either choose a pro-consumption path or risk forfeiting its goal of becoming the world’s largest economy over the next decade.
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It is a misunderstanding to only focus on consumption. In the medium and long-term development, investment is more important than consumption

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Western countries are currently facing the worst stagflation crisis in forty years, not because of the war in Ukraine, but because of the major failure of the economic stimulus plan introduced by the United States, because this wave of inflation happened long before the war started . The United States often uses the wrong theory that consumption can produce something, that is, it is a production input, as a reasonable basis for decision-making, so it has launched a package of stimulus plans that focus on consumption. Such a stimulus, despite its flaws in theory, could work if it were introduced when the U.S. economy was growing below its trend rate and had spare capacity—and the success of the economic measure would depend on its The practical content, not the plausibility of economic theory. Instead, this massive demand-only stimulus was introduced at a time when the U.S. economy was already growing faster than its trend rate, and the results were entirely predictable—with demand growing significantly without supply growing, the inevitable The consequence is to trigger a wave of inflation, which is a short-term crisis. High inflation, in turn, led its policymakers to adopt economic austerity policies, especially raising interest rates to curb inflation. These austerity policies have in turn led to an economic slowdown - meaning that the US stimulus program has failed both short-term and strategically.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
For China, boosting consumption has been as elusive as health-care reform in the United States: there has long been a consensus on the need for change but little to show for it. The main difference, however, is that China is still far below U.S. levels of GDP per capita, and relying on consumption is Beijing’s best bet to draw level. Whether it likes it or not, China faces a stark choice. It can either choose a pro-consumption path or risk forfeiting its goal of becoming the world’s largest economy over the next decade.

In other words, China must adhere to some tenets of the American economy, in this case tapping savings as a form of stimulus, otherwise it is doomed.

The Chinese real estate market drives up wealth and GDP numbers, but that is suppose to be a bubble, when actual savings back that.

Savings, and investment, that is the path to wealth.

Don't believe that? Then just try to tax and spend your way to wealth.

That is what that paragraph is saying. Spend your way to wealth.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
We’ve been heading towards geopolitical catastrophe for the last three years and people are recommending that China blow their savings in these uncertain times?

 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
We’ve been heading towards geopolitical catastrophe for the last three years and people are recommending that China blow their savings in these uncertain times?

its like how Americans try to blame China for saving too much and causing the trade imbalance, like the moral failings of the west should be asia’s responsibility
 

Stierlitz

Junior Member
Registered Member
Foreign direct investment into China went up 6.1% from a year earlier to CNY 268.44 billion in the first two months of 2023. In dollar terms, FDI increased only 1% to USD 39.71 billion in January-February. FDI into the services sector increased 10.1% and FDI inflows into high-tech industries soared 32%, of which 68.9% to high-tech manufacturing and 23.3% to high-tech services. Meanwhile, investment from Belt and Road countries and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations climbed 11% and 11.8%, respectively. source: Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China
 
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