So you are saying the government is doing their best to get price up again, but not as high as before. The market is not very responsive so far.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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I mean, there's plenty of articles about how provincial governments have been caught falsifying economic data.
But I also found this...
"However, the NBS is aware of the tendency for provincial officials to overstate GDP, and the bureau makes corrections for this behavior. In 1994, the country introduced census surveys to bypass lower-tier statistical departments and check the quality of the data collection. Four years later, the NBS took action against data falsification by issuing a reform that allowed for statistical breaks in provincial numbers to relieve past exaggeration. In 2015, the NBS reported national GDP of $10.4 trillion, which was about 7 percent less than the sum of the provincial numbers."
I think its a good thing China is cracking down on such data falsification.
How is this any different than similar phenomena elsewhere, but without the national level corrections, understated inflation data, or the copium about China's GDP being 30% smaller than stated "because satellites" as if China did not have satellites?
I think you're misunderstanding what I'm saying. I'm saying that my initial premise was wrong, because although there is economic data falsification at the local level, at the national level that seems to have been accounted for, thereby unaffecting the GDP growth.
We should examine GDP truthfulness for every major economy, as it is very rare that a major economy claims unprecedented growth while simultaneously experiencing a collapse in average lifespan, birth rate and labor participation.
China is a very complicated economy that's probably hard to assess the exact GDP, especially when provincial gov't are incentivized to report high numbers. It happens quite often in America too, so I don't think we need to be sinister like the mainstream media about any numbers out of China.
I read somewhere that the NBS doesn't count stuff like rent payments and education costs as GDP in contrast to the US which counts everything, is this true? Is it possible that the NBS is actually understating China's GDP?
Nice breakdown of China's export market delta from Dec 2021 to Dec 2022. Keep in mind there was a big drop overall, so the increased exports to ASEAN countries, Africa and oil rich countries like Saudi/Iran/Russia are interesting.
I think there has been some greater confidence in Chinese stock market so far in January. People at Davos were quite relieved to see a more opened Chinese economy. In this example, you are seeing foreign money flowing in. It's unclear how much of this is western funds vs oil rich countries. 90 billion RMB is not a lot, but the trend is what matters here.
I think there has been some greater confidence in Chinese stock market so far in January. People at Davos were quite relieved to see a more opened Chinese economy. In this example, you are seeing foreign money flowing in. It's unclear how much of this is western funds vs oil rich countries. 90 billion RMB is not a lot, but the trend is what matters here.
FYI it’s more a reference of how bad 22 was vs other years. I’ll get excited when we hit 400bln
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