Chinese Economics Thread

PiSigma

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infant formula market is very competitive now in China. Abbott Laboratories is exiting the Chinese market.

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Didnt Simillac have all those quality issues earlier this year where they had all kinds of bacteria found in the formula? I remember it killed several babies in the US. So a company like that leaving is good news.
 

tphuang

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They do a lot of volume, but it's very hard for international investors to get involved. I spoke with a colleague yesterday about Shanghai Petroleum and natural gas exchange and it's one that's really hard to also get involved into. I was also told that it's different from trading oil & ng on Shanghai Futures Exchange.

The key is getting more traffic through HK connect. They have a bond connect on top of the stock connect for the onshore stuff.
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Looks like the connect really opened in July. This is like a big step for them to open up their domestic financial market.
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The caution is that derivative product gets ultra complicated and out of control really quickly. In America, the derivative market has basically taken over financial market.

But overall, it seems like they are opening up their financial market. They are realizing that they have to do that in order to get more people to use RMB and invest in China and such. This is quite important if you want more controls to use Yuan and CIPS.
 

In4ser

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I’m worried about the precedence, granted I’ve used options myself but I’ve also know someone who bankrupted himself on derivative instruments. Better to keep that speculation for international investors in HK stock exchange and investment for the domestic stock markets. Growth is always tied with risk. The more growth, the greater the risk. The pursuit of high growth and risk aversion is what lead to the financialization of the West.
 

gadgetcool5

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FairAndUnbiased

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The thing is what will America do?

Russia is a country with UK like economy. If China today wanted to seize all UK international assets within reasonable reach, it could do so. It would cause an uproar and many countries wouldn't approve, but it'd be no different than what happened between US and Russia.

China on the other hand is the world's largest economy. Dollars have value largely because China is ok with dealing using them.

Much of China's dollars are stored in itself or allied countries. Even if some stooge in the white house says these dollars are invalid, these dollars still exist and can be used.

Another is the issue of debt. US has massive amounts of assets in China. If US defaults using war as an excuse, China can just seize their assets. If China needs to extract a pound of flesh from America to pay back the debt, the stuff is already there, inside the mainland, on HK, Taiwan, wherever, ripe for the taking.

The paradox of reserve currency is that the current arrangement lets America borrow China's geopolitical power. But at the same time, China needs to develop the export goods market to improve the nation.

I'm no economist but the way I see it, the ideal situation for China is to avoid contesting dollar reserve currency but get a yuan resource monopoly. Then when Chinese brands comprehensively dominate most of the global market and only after US has been guided to a soft landing like how Gorby landed the USSR, then discussions about a shared Yuan and dollar global reserve will be made, after Chinese companies picked up the scraps of what's left from US former national champions using devalued dollars.
Actually, all USD even held in China, as long as it isn't cash, must be transacted through the New York Fed. All "US dollars" world wide is actually "US's dollars" ultimately.
 
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