Chinese Economics Thread

tygyg1111

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Trading Oil in Yuan, Would it Matter At All?​


What Would It Take for the Yuan to Dethrone the Dollar?
  1. China would have to float the yuan.
  2. End capital controls
  3. Respect property rights
  4. Have a bond market big enough (China has virtually no gov't bond market)
  5. Inspire global trust
  6. Be willing to have trade deficits
  7. Stop export mercantilism
  8. Have a currency market big enough
At a minimum, China flunks the first seven. Numbers 1, 2, 4, 6, and 7 are serious show stoppers.

Yet, every year, these stories surface. China will back the yuan with gold, China will do set up a BRIC block, China will do this or that (while this and that circulate between gold and other nonsense).

Six and seven are essentially the same point.

For all the pissing and moaning about US dollar privileges, no other country really wants to stop their export mercantilism. The two biggest players are China and Germany. Japan was once a leader in that group and squandered it.

Consumer of Last Resort

Every country wants the US consumer to remain the consumer of last resort.

Even IF that changes (someone tell me when), there are 5 critical requirements a country must meet (#s 1, 2, 4, 6- 7, 8).

The Yuan Will Not Replace the US Dollar, Nor Will It Be Backed by Commodities

Pricing Unit Is Irrelevant


Meanwhile, I assure you oil trades for euros.

Regardless, the trading currency is meaningless. It's the holding currency that matters. Currencies are fungible. It makes no difference where a swap happens.

For example, it makes no difference if Europe sells euros for dollars to buy oil, or if Saudi takes euros and one second later converts them to dollars.

A swap for yuan does not work because the yuan does not float nor is there a big Chinese bond market to challenge US treasuries.
This oil in euros idea spawned endless silliness about oil for euros being the reason for the Gulf Wars.
Next up: 8 reasons why the Steelers are the besterest football team, and why no other team comes close
 

tphuang

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Trading Oil in Yuan, Would it Matter At All?​


What Would It Take for the Yuan to Dethrone the Dollar?
  1. China would have to float the yuan.
  2. End capital controls
  3. Respect property rights
  4. Have a bond market big enough (China has virtually no gov't bond market)
  5. Inspire global trust
  6. Be willing to have trade deficits
  7. Stop export mercantilism
  8. Have a currency market big enough
At a minimum, China flunks the first seven. Numbers 1, 2, 4, 6, and 7 are serious show stoppers.

Yet, every year, these stories surface. China will back the yuan with gold, China will do set up a BRIC block, China will do this or that (while this and that circulate between gold and other nonsense).

Six and seven are essentially the same point.

For all the pissing and moaning about US dollar privileges, no other country really wants to stop their export mercantilism. The two biggest players are China and Germany. Japan was once a leader in that group and squandered it.

Consumer of Last Resort

Every country wants the US consumer to remain the consumer of last resort.

Even IF that changes (someone tell me when), there are 5 critical requirements a country must meet (#s 1, 2, 4, 6- 7, 8).

The Yuan Will Not Replace the US Dollar, Nor Will It Be Backed by Commodities

Pricing Unit Is Irrelevant


Meanwhile, I assure you oil trades for euros.

Regardless, the trading currency is meaningless. It's the holding currency that matters. Currencies are fungible. It makes no difference where a swap happens.

For example, it makes no difference if Europe sells euros for dollars to buy oil, or if Saudi takes euros and one second later converts them to dollars.

A swap for yuan does not work because the yuan does not float nor is there a big Chinese bond market to challenge US treasuries.
This oil in euros idea spawned endless silliness about oil for euros being the reason for the Gulf Wars.

I don't mind mishtalk, but he is missing the point here. China is not looking to have Yuan as the reserve currency. It is looking to create a system that it can fully control and cannot be sanctioned by the West. I'm sure even he agrees that makes sense and the West has made colossal mistake with this currency/economic warfare on Russia which has just alienated and scared all the Arab countries. Thanks to these countries, non-Western countries are looking for alternatives to US/Western dominated system so they can be coerced easily. That's the appeal of SFE, DCE, Shanghai petroleum and nat gas exchange to people in China and hopefully to nearby countries.

He also has some basic facts wrong. There is a fully floating off shore version of CNY that's cleared in HK that anyone in the west can trade. That's why China had to defend Yuan so much earlier this year. And China is significantly adding to its government bond market.

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It still has small international volume compared to US treasuries and the Gilts, but it will increase over time, especially with other Asian countries.

here is a good link to read
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They are looking to create an influential oil/gas/energy trading platform in Shanghai. They don't want to use ICE or CME.
 
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tphuang

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They don't want RMB, they like their dollar.
They liked their dollars and then the West started to confiscate properties and that got them more nervous.

More importantly, it doesn't really matter how much they like RMB. Recently, BHP or Rio Rinto made its first sale to China of iron ore in RMB. China told them that if you don't transact with us in RMB, we will buy it all from Russia. Guess what, Australian companies did what they need to do to get their sales across.

China can get cheap oil from Russia paid in RMB. It can probably force Iran into taking RMB for their oil if they really pushed. While GCC may control oil export market, they still don't want to loose their sales and influence to Iran and Russia. Basic economics.
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
They liked their dollars and then the West started to confiscate properties and that got them more nervous.

More importantly, it doesn't really matter how much they like RMB. Recently, BHP or Rio Rinto made its first sale to China of iron ore in RMB. China told them that if you don't transact with us in RMB, we will buy it all from Russia. Guess what, Australian companies did what they need to do to get their sales across.

China can get cheap oil from Russia paid in RMB. It can probably force Iran into taking RMB for their oil if they really pushed. While GCC may control oil export market, they still don't want to loose their sales and influence to Iran and Russia. Basic economics.
China has been paying in RMB for Iranian oil for a decade. Now, Russia is the second major oil producer to accept RMB. As the financial infrastructure for such sales is being established, other producing countries can conduct part of their trade in RMB as well. Nobody wants to hold a currency like the US dollar with very little property protection. It may be cheaper to transact in and hold USD, but after assets are stolen it certainly doesn't feel much cheaper anymore.

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I doubt that Saudi Arabia can afford to be the first to move away from the petrodollar officially, but a smaller country like the UAE or Kuwait or even Iraq could lead the Arab world away from the dollar
 

tonyget

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They liked their dollars and then the West started to confiscate properties and that got them more nervous.

Their asset are in dollars does not mean they have to put money in the West. They can put it in tax heaven like Panama
 

tphuang

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China has been paying in RMB for Iranian oil for a decade. Now, Russia is the second major oil producer to accept RMB. As the financial infrastructure for such sales is being established, other producing countries can conduct part of their trade in RMB as well. Nobody wants to hold a currency like the US dollar with very little property protection. It may be cheaper to transact in and hold USD, but after assets are stolen it certainly doesn't feel much cheaper anymore.

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I doubt that Saudi Arabia can afford to be the first to move away from the petrodollar officially, but a smaller country like the UAE or Kuwait or even Iraq could lead the Arab world away from the dollar
Yes, I've read that article a while back, but I'm not aware that China has been paying Iran in RMB for most of its oil. Otherwise, RMB in oil trade should be higher than what it is now. We do know that China is paying Russian in RMB or RUB for all of the hydrocarbons. That's the difference. The Russians are forcing everyone else to pay China using RMB.

The Saudis brought all of the GCC in there in order to not take all of the blow back. Let's face it, nobody in GCC likes what the West has done recently. The usage of Shanghai Petroleum and natural gas platform is designed so that the West doesn't have visibility into who is selling/buying these hydrocarbon contracts.

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A section of the Power of Siberia pipeline was put into operation this week, enabling Russian gas from Siberia to flow to China's eastern financial hub of Shanghai.


The Tai'an-Taixing section of the pipeline in China was operational on Dec. 7, according to a statement by the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange.
The Russians are definitely going to be using SHPGX.

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A number of foreign gas suppliers including Total, Mitsui & Co., Glencore, RWE and Aramco Trading have been invited to participate in the tenders.
LNG contracts has been trading on here for a while, although it's unclear how often foreign players are actually participating. as I noted earlier, Qataris have definitely used this service by now.

I think this announcement simply encourages all of GCC countries and countries around the world to more proactively use this platform.
 

vincent

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Their asset are in dollars does not mean they have to put money in the West. They can put it in tax heaven like Panama
The US can prevent all banks from dealing with sanctioned individuals. Former HK chief executive Carrie Lam can’t even get a single bank to handle her salary payments
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2023 will start the golden age of China. Economy will greatly jump up after covid. European energy crisis will bring much of industry to China. Computers are being fully indegenized. Numerous foriegn monopoly are being smashed at break neck speed, including semiconductor, airliners, finance sector. In another 5 years of scaling up China will become full spectrum competitive in every field.
That's a tall order, but hopefully it pans out. Forgot to add too that the Fed is unlikely to continue raising interest rates, so the Yuan should continue recovering to the dollar. Right now its at 6.97, compared to the earlier low of around 7.40.
 
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