Chinese Economics Thread

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China to strengthen supervision of state-owned assets
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2008-10-23 20:35:56 Print

BEIJING, Oct. 23 (Xinhua) -- China's top legislators on Thursday met for a third time to discuss a newly-revised draft law designed to improve supervision and management of state assets in both financial and non-financial businesses.

It prescribed state-owned assets in both financial and non-financial sectors should be put under supervision. It didn't include state-owned administrative and resource assets.

The draft law of enterprise state-owned assets was submitted to the fifth session of the Standing Committee of the 11th National People's Congress for a third reading.

Li Shuguang, a China University of Political Science and Law professor and a member of the draft team, said it was a big step forward to cover state-owned financial assets in the paper.

Currently, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is responsible for watching over146 state-owned business giants. State-owned financial institutions such as banks are under the supervision of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank.

It added an article highlighting the role of employee representation in improving the democratic management of business.
 

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China seen overtaking Germany as top exporter in '08
Fri Oct 24, 2008 9:46am EDT


By Rene Wagner

BERLIN, Oct 24 (Reuters) - China will overtake Germany to become the world's biggest exporter of goods this year, earlier than previously expected, the DIHK German chambers of industry and commerce said on Friday.

Germany has held the top spot since 2003, but the DIHK said the rise in the value of the dollar against the euro would help China to take over this year, rather than in 2009 as expected previously.

Continued...
 
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Beijing Bust?
Gordon G. Chang 10.24.08, 12:01 AM ET

On Monday, Beijing announced third quarter GDP growth: 9%, down from 10.1% in the second quarter and 10.6% in the first. The double-digit numbers from the earlier periods represent a slowdown from last year, when Beijing racked up an astounding 11.9% increase. The National Bureau of Statistics, in releasing the Q3 number, blamed the global financial crisis for the lowest increase in five years.

Is this China's century? Many analysts think so because of spectacular economic growth, which, according to official statistics, has averaged 9.8% since Deng Xiaoping assumed power at the end of 1978. Yet the Chinese economy looks headed for turbulence. A worldwide recession is just one of the unfavorable trends working against it. The other two--the economy is at the end of a decade-long expansion and the post-Olympic letdown is making itself felt--will help ensure that this will be a long and deep downturn.

Already there are signs of severe economic stress. Declining U.S. consumer sentiment has led to this year's closure of 10,000 factories in China's export powerhouse, the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong province. Another 20,000 in that area are expected to go out of business by the end of this year.

Last week, the Delta witnessed the first failure of a large manufacturer, resulting in 4,000 idled workers taking to the streets to demand back pay. Another large factory closed its doors this week. Declining prospects for the export sector are probably the primary reason why the Politburo, in late July, switched from fighting still-worrisome inflation to boosting growth with both fiscal and monetary measures.

The assumption in Beijing is that, with a small number of adjustments and a large amount of spending, the country can buy its way out of crisis. Former Premier Zhu Rongji did just that beginning in 1998 when he famously warned of a "collapse." Zhu pulled the economy out of the doldrums and triggered another round of fast growth, which has lasted until recent months.

There are, however, major factors working against his successor, the less-aggressive Wen Jiabao. Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, the economy has become dependent on foreign markets. At present, a staggering 38% of the Chinese economy is attributable to exports. The over-reliance on foreign markets could hit China especially hard in coming months. Stephen Green of Standard Chartered thinks export growth could fall to zero next year and even turn negative.

To prevent that from happening, Beijing this week unveiled measures to help industry, such as a new value-added tax rebate, but the program will undoubtedly prove ineffective. The issue is not that Chinese goods are too expensive; the problem is that foreign consumers are not consuming.

And neither are China's. Consumption as a percentage of the Chinese economy has been declining recently, falling from about 60% of the economy in the 1978 to 2002 period, to about 35% today. Authoritarian states can do many things, but they cannot force people to shop. And that is especially true of China, which has almost no social safety net and few public services. Worse, Chinese consumers are bound to become even more cautious now that property prices are tumbling all along the country's coast, and stock prices have lost almost two-thirds of their value this year.

When I was in China in June and July, it seemed just about everyone expected a sharp slowdown. The country's academics have been predicting a 2009 recession for at least three years, and now it appears recessionary psychology has seeped into the business community. A well-known fund manager in Beijing told me that he and all his colleagues expected a "very bad" downturn and that most everyone he knew was selling assets to eliminate exposure. Now, we are seeing these pessimistic expectations reflected in national output figures.

UBS (nyse: UBS - news - people ) expects 8% growth next year, but that seems optimistic, given all the downward-pointing trends. The essential problem for the Chinese government is that the economy is now hostage to events beyond its borders. This decade, Beijing's technocrats could have taken steps to reorient the economy away from exports and toward consumer spending, but did little. Soon, they could be forced to take drastic measures in a deteriorating economic environment.

The coming slowdown looks like it will hit China especially hard. The country's exuberant growth has created dislocations, such as questionable bank loans, unfunded social welfare obligations, a degraded environment and rampant corruption. These problems have not posed serious threats up to now, because continual increases in economic output have tended to mask them.

Yet, as China turns from boom to bust, they will inevitably emerge. When that happens, much of what we think we know about the Chinese economy--and China itself--could become obsolete.
 
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U.S. warns China's growth will slow
Duncan Mavin, Financial Post Published: Wednesday, October 22, 2008

A senior U.S. Treasury Department official has delivered a dire warning for China's policymakers saying the country's "extraordinary economic growth" may "no longer be tenable in the face of a global economic slowdown."

"[China's] current growth model has created growing internal and external imbalances that need to be addressed," said David McCormick, under secretary of international affairs at the Treasury, who was speaking in Hong Kong Wednesday.

Earlier this week, China delivered its weakest set of economic data in five years, escalating fears the Asian giant cannot escape the global downturn. On Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing said gross domestic product grew by 9.0% in the third quarter of 2008, down from 10.1% in the previous quarter. China's growth rate has slowed for five quarters in a row as the country's manufacturers have seen export-driven demand plummet as buyers in developed nations stop spending.

Mr. McCormick said China must replace exports with strong domestic demand to achieve "both macroeconomic stability and sustained economic growth in the face of negative external shocks."

Beijing has already responded to the slowdown with a series of emergency policy measures.

"China's government agencies [have] wasted no time in rolling out a batch of stimulus programs to revive the slowing Chinese economy," said Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu. China has announced it will step up investment in infrastructure, and said it will restore tax rebates to labour intensive industries to support struggling exporters. The government is likely also considering measures to cut stamp duty, ease credit tightening in the property sector, and cut domestic fuel prices, said the Merrill Lynch economist.

China's GDP growth is still anticipated to outstrip that of just about any other major economy over the next two years. But there are undoubtedly signs the country is hurting from problems in the rest of the world, and Beijing's emergency measures have come too late for some. Guangdong province - China's manufacturing heartland - has already seen a number of high-profile factory closures, including three factories owned by the world's biggest toymaker, Smart Union Group, which makes toys for Mattel and Hasbro. The closures, many of them at factories that relied heavily on exports to the U.S., have led to strikes, sit-ins and other unrest among the workforce. Up to 20,000 Guangdong factories owned by Hong Kong businesses alone are expected to close by the end of this year, according to some estimates.

Mr. McCormick said he hopes to see the U.S. economy trend upwards in the latter half of 2009, but it is still "very difficult to forecast" the duration of the global economic slump. "We are very much in the eye of the storm," he added.

He said the crisis has drawn an "unprecedented" level of cooperation between policymakers in Washington and Beijing, but also warned of the dangers of "protectionist tendencies springing up in the U.S., in China and around the world." He also called for the Chinese government to allow market-based pricing to take priority on interest rates and exchange rates. The influential Treasury Department official - who previously ran a software company with offices in China and Hong Kong - acknowledged the U.S. has been "humbled" by the financial crisis, but he urged Beijing not to "mistakenly abandon the pursuit of financial sector innovation."
 

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China to invest in rail network as stimulus measure: report
BEIJING, Oct 25 (AFP) Oct 25, 2008
China will invest nearly 300 billion dollars in its overburdened rail system as a stimulus measure aimed at blunting the impact of the global financial crisis, state press said on Saturday.

The investment is part of plans to extend the country's railway network from the current roughly 78,000 miles to nearly 100,000 miles by 2010, Shanghai's Oriental Morning Post reported.

The Beijing News quoted a rail official as saying that, while the network needed extending, the massive investment of 292 billion dollars was also intended to help lift the nation's economy as it suffers amid the global woes.

"New rail investment will become a shining light in efforts to push forward economic growth," railway ministry spokesman Wang Yongping was quoted saying.

China's economy recorded its slowest growth in five years at 9.0 percent in the third quarter of 2008.

The situation has looked increasingly dire in recent days with export-dependent factories closing and laying off thousands of workers, with warnings from industry heads of much worse to come.

The China Daily newspaper said the rail investment plan had been approved by the State Council.

About 1.2 trillion yuan (about 170 billion dollars) had already been allocated, it said.

The paper quoted a government policy advisor saying the plan was similar to China's successful strategy for warding off the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s.

"In 1997, we dealt with the Asian financial crisis by stimulating domestic economic growth through investment in the construction of highways," policy advisor Zheng Xinli was quoted as saying.

"This time the money will go to improving the rail network."

China's railway network is one of the most extensive in the world, but has come under pressure as the nation's economy has boomed, giving millions more the opportunity to travel.

Among them, more than 200 million migrant workers are estimated to have left their homes in the countryside for work in urban or coastal areas.

The vulnerability of the rail network was laid bare last winter, when fierce snowstorms crippled China's transport systems, stranding millions of passengers trying to return to their homes during the peak Chinese New Year travel period.
 

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By Yoko Nishikawa

BEIJING (Reuters) - Leaders from Japan and China agreed on Friday to set up a hotline to deepen trust and ties between Asia's two biggest economies and vowed to work together to help the global efforts to curb the financial crisis.

In bilateral meetings ahead of the two-day Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) of 27 EU member states and 16 Asian countries, Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao agreed with Japan's outspoken nationalist prime minister that they will promote strategic and mutually beneficial ties.

"Expanding relations between Japan and China will lead to global stability and prosperity," Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso said in a speech at a ceremony to celebrate the 30th anniversary of a Japan-China peace and friendship treaty.

"I think we can have more confidence in the potential power of the Japan-China relationship and cooperation."

Aso, seen as an outspoken nationalist, and Chinese leaders agreed to set up a hotline between Tokyo and Beijing, where many still harbor resentment over Japan's invasion and occupation of parts of China from 1931 to 1945.

China replaced the United States as Japan's top trade partner in 2007, with two-way trade totaling $236.6 billion, and the two export powers' efforts could be crucial to steadying the world economy.

At the bilateral meetings, leaders from the two neighbors agreed to cooperate on strategies to tackle the financial crisis at a planned summit of global leaders to be held in Washington on November 15.

"The financial system crisis in the United States and Europe is now crossing borders and affecting real economies in other countries," Aso said.

"We will have a G20 summit meeting in Washington and now we have the ASEM summit meeting with European countries, so we discussed the need for both countries to hold hands and work together," Aso told reporters.

Aso came into office with a reputation as an outspoken nationalist, especially wary of China's growing military and economic clout. That has raised fears that under him bilateral relations could deteriorate after a period of warming.

Aso sought to soften his hawkish image and stressed that the two nations were indispensable partners, noting that Japan's trade with China was now 50 times that of 30 years ago.

The Japanese leader, who took office last month after his predecessor abruptly quit, has also in the past offended Seoul with remarks that appeared to try to whitewash Japan's often brutal 1910-1945 colonization of the Korean peninsula.

Relations with South Korea soured in July after Japan said it would write about a longstanding island dispute in school teaching guides, prompting Seoul to recall its ambassador.

Seoul was reported to have rejected Tokyo's proposal to hold a leaders' summit of Japan, China and South Korea in anger over Japan's renewed territorial claims over the islands.

But at Friday's bilateral talk, Aso and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak focused on how to overcome the global financial crisis through bilateral and regional cooperation and stayed away from politically sensitive issues like disagreements over history and the disputed islands, officials from both countries said.

To fight against the worldwide crisis and discuss issues involving North Korea's nuclear program, Lee and Chinese leaders supported Aso's proposal to hold a trilateral summit meeting in Japan by the end of this year, they added.

"Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso invited President Lee Myung-bak to a summit of South Korea, China and Japan to be held in Fukuoka in mid-December," South Korean presidential spokesman Lee Dong-gwan told Korean reporters at a briefing, adding that Lee had accepted the invitation.
 

Engineer

Major
China's most popular politician Wen Jiabao, the prime minister, has become a target for Communist party hardliners and could be forced from office, according to an influential magazine in Hong Kong... Kaifang said in its analysis. “The party needs to find a scapegoat.”

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So-so-faction is fighting with so-so-faction and so-so is going to get purged is the hall mark of Falun Gong writing style. If you do a bit of investigation, you will actually find that Kaifang shares the exact same mail address as Hong Kong's Epoch Times. :roll:
 

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Both countries have been going around some time advocating a new non dollar denominated world currency.
 
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Greenpeace: China's coal use cost it $248 billion
BEIJING

China's reliance on cheap coal to fuel its economy cost a hidden $248 billion last year through damage to the environment, strain on the health care system and manipulation of the commodity's price, according to a report released Monday by Greenpeace.

Coal accounts for more than 70 percent of China's energy use, helping to buttress the country's double-digit economic growth. But as demand for electricity has soared, supplies of coal have been strained -- and the government's role in keeping prices low has become more expensive.

Coal-fired power plants and smelters have also polluted China's water and air, resulted in massive loss of life in accidents, and contributed to endemic respiratory problems from coal dust and other particulates.

"Nobody has calculated the costs," said Han Xiaoping, senior vice president of Beijing Falcon Pioneer Technology Co., an energy consultancy. "We are shouldering the costs and the whole world is shouldering the costs."

The damages associated with use of coal cost the country 1.7 trillion yuan ($248 billion) last year, or the equivalent of 7.1 percent of China's gross domestic product, according to the report, conducted in collaboration with the Energy Foundation and the conservation group WWF.

Economists and other experts arrived at their figures by calculating, for example, the lost income from those sickened by coal pollution and the cost of their care.

They also took into account coal's role in climate change, which has led to the loss of farmland through desertification and made water for irrigation more scarce. China is the world's biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, produced from coal combustion among other pollutants.

"Recognizing the true cost of coal would create incentives to developing cleaner, sustainable energy sources," said Yang Ailun, climate and energy campaign manager at Greenpeace.

"The government should introduce an effective price signal (price set by the market) for coal, which would ensure a massive improvement in energy efficiency," she said.

Phones at the National Development and Reform Commission, which handles economic policy, rang unanswered after hours on Monday. This summer, the government raised prices for coal from 840 to 860 yuan ($123 to $125) per ton at China's three main markets to ensure supply.

If all the costs associated with coal use were reflected in its price, the commodity would cost 23 percent more, the study said. China's GDP would likely fall by less than a percent if coal's price rose to that level, it concluded.

Chinese miners already pay a heavy price for the use of coal, the report noted. China's coal mines are the world's deadliest, with numerous fires, floods and other disasters killing an average of 13 miners a day.

The death rate of Chinese miners per million tons of coal extracted is 70 times higher than for their American counterparts. Many accidents occur in small mines with low safety standards or in mines operated illegally.

The report urged China to phase in taxes on energy use and emissions, ease price controls on coal and create insurance funds for those harmed by mining accidents.

A fair price for coal would make sure it is being used more efficiently and increase the competitiveness of China's companies, but also spur development in renewable energy sources, the 63-page report said.

"The government of China has the opportunity to make a real improvement to the environment by reforming the current coal pricing system," it said.

Han said the report might help to bring such issues to public attention.

If the they knew how damaging coal was, "the Chinese people will be shocked, and if they are shocked, they will take some action," he said.
 
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