broadsword
Brigadier
I think it does.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
I think it does.
Some recent statistical data from NBS
In that case, in you guys' opinion, what are the best guesstimate for the actual, real size of economies of major countries in the world today? Especially for China and the US?
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Comparing the Chinese and US economies wrt size is a fool's errand since structurally they are fundamentally different. Using the US dollar as the basis of comparison is also riddled with flaws, originally it kind of made sense as international trade was conducted in USD but since China embarked on large scale currency swaps with central banks of its key trading partners it breaks direct correlation.
The Chinese are concerned with economic growth calculated in its own currency and the distribution of the wealth generated by said growth.
The US is concerned with dressing up its economy to look like the belle of the ball (botox, silicone the whole nine yards!) because its become a giant pyramid scheme that needs constant fresh injection of funds to buy its debt to keep afloat!
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder
I don't think it matters.
It matters, as it is important, just not that important.
China is a big place. To count everything, and make sure everything is right, that is a big task, for no real end it seems.
What I would like to say, is something else, which is directly related to this question of how big is the Chinese economy, and it is a story that is vastly under-reported.
China very soon, if growth rates continue which it should, will become a high income country.
That would mean China stayed in the middle income ranks for about 20 plus years, which was the amount of time the Asian Tigers stayed at that income level.
Imagine that. In fact, for those of us who are older, and remember our first impressions of China, to say China will be a high income country is a total shock, but that is well deserved accomplishment, and full marks to China and the Chinese people.
Not only that, but China reaching high income status as a nation, was done in the face of hostile powers who were more technologically advanced.
When Japan, South Korea, Singapore rose up the ranks, the Americans and to a lesser extent the Europeans, accommodated the tech industry of the Asian Tigers. The established powers did not like it, but they eventually accommodated the rise of the technological powers of the Asian Tigers.
China was different. The US government war against Huawei 5G should dispelled any notion that China will be treated like the Asian Tigers, that Chinese tech will be accommodated. Instead, it was to be suppressed.
The CCP said, "Fuck you guys." And China will press on and still become a high income nation.
China has size, China has friends. China has the tech. The economy is still growing better than anybody. No wonder China is moving on up, into the what is considered to be high income country.
I think it is basically true. The major cities on the east, people tend to live 1st world lifestyles. That is so different than just 2 or 3 generations ago. It is so different now.
China, as a high income country, a country of 1.4 billion, that is going to change the world. Hitch your wagon to that, it China will drag you along.
Plus the fact, with the RCEP and the One Belt One Road initiative, at this point, it kind of boggles the mind what is possible.
Should be good.
Okay, a few weeks ago, was reading about this stuff, China becoming a high income nation, and it raised a few questions in my mind.
Anyways, I forgot most of those articles, but I think I saved the links somewhere.
This article was probably among the most important one. The guy who wrote it is a professor and used to be a leader of a country!
Must be good shit here.
Anyways, I forgot most of those articles, but I think I saved the links somewhere.
This article was probably among the most important one. The guy who wrote it is a professor and used to be a leader of a country!
Must be good shit here.
supercat
Major
While China's real estate bubble popped, the investment in fixed-assets (infrastructure, machinery, and equipment) grew.
The high-tech manufacturing sector did well.
The high-tech manufacturing sector did well.
If you compare energy production:
China: 8.5 million GWh
America: 4.3 million GWh
3rd and 4th place India and Russia are dramatically less than USA at just around 1 million GWh.
Auto sales by country:
China: 21 million
America: 14 million
But this might be a bit skewed due to how important cars are in America, for example many poor ppl in USA will rather have a car than a home, because they can sleep in the car.
Official GDP numbers (in USD adjusted for inflation) are:
China: 30 trillion
USA: 25 trillion
India: 11 trillion
So actually looking at consumption markers, US economy is not overrated, because it really has a healthy lead on number 3. Its broadly China that is underrated.
I can't really explain why China has an abberant gdp vs consumption/output stat. One part might be that elites own a much smaller share of the economy, but that alone shouldn't cause what should be an almost 100% lead over number 2 to shrink to a mere 20% lead.
But economy isn't my strong suite and someone who is way better at this could maybe explain it.
GDP figures are highly distorted because of the USD reserve currency status. As such they are not accurate indicators for size and strength of the economy.
Look at how the US "gained" a few trillions in GDP this year from just printing money and inflating. Is their economy better off or more productive? No
There is no "most accurate" metric. You simply have to use your judgement by combining some metrics together, like GDP PPP, technological complexity, resources, electricity production etc
Look at how the US "gained" a few trillions in GDP this year from just printing money and inflating. Is their economy better off or more productive? No
There is no "most accurate" metric. You simply have to use your judgement by combining some metrics together, like GDP PPP, technological complexity, resources, electricity production etc
If I've understood it correctly as long as you adjust gdp based on inflationary costs, stuff like printing currency will not show up.