Chinese Economics Thread

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
If 93% of US GDP in 2027, that would mean a GDP gap of 7%. Assuming Chinese GDP outgrows US by only 3% each year results in an overtake by 2030, and outgrowing by 2% each year results in overtake by 2031?

What surprises me more is how much EU has fallen behind both US and China. I can now see EU per capita GDP falling to 50% of America/Japan/South Korea, something unimaginable even 5 years ago.
Europe has a lot of dead weight (eastern Europe). Demograpically its in a much worse position than America, less births and migration. It's not a surprise they've had no growth for 15 years.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The EU economy has not taken advantage of the new economic models and was instead basically further colonized by US corporate giants as a result of their complacency. A lot of the cheaper products and basic industry were also replaced with Chinese products. Add to this now Europe nerfing itself by cutting itself off Russian energy and resources and it is a recipe for failure. Europe is headed the same way as Japan I think.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
The EU economy has not taken advantage of the new economic models and was instead basically further colonized by US corporate giants as a result of their complacency. A lot of the cheaper products and basic industry were also replaced with Chinese products. Add to this now Europe nerfing itself by cutting itself off Russian energy and resources and it is a recipe for failure. Europe is headed the same way as Japan I think.

Japan is highly homogenous ethnically and enjoys very low violent crime rates. I don’t think Europe has that going for them when the tough gets going.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Nominal GDP matters because foreign companies selling into your market don't care what they can buy with the revenue in your currency, they only care about how much they earn in their own currency. So if the RMB appreciates, the Chinese consumer market will be even more attractive for international exporters and commodities will be cheaper for China. Nominal GDP also determines how much you can borrow in foreign currencies and how much your money is worth when visiting a foreign country.

So nominal GDP describes an important reality. That's why there's so much prestige that comes with being the largest economy by nominal GDP. PPP is useful to compare relative quality of life, nominal compares relative international power.

Of course if you care about how that economic power translates into military power, industrial production is much more important. And volume is more important than dollar value. China is already the largest industrial power the world has ever seen. China produces more steel than the rest of the world combined. That's why they had to switch from calling western countries "industrial economies" to so called "advanced" economies. Because China has more industry than all G7 countries combined
Except it does not compare international power unless you're talking about the small portion of international exports and so on. Which would be of some interest if a country is very export driven, such as Germany for example. Again, these prices can constantly fluctuate based on inflation in different economies.

It is not just military power that brings prestige but also how economic power translates into general purchasable goods. Economy is a measure of the nation's power and ability for their people to thrive by expanding goods, if your model cannot show the level of economic activity correctly, any "prestige" assigned to it is just random coping, not actual prestige. IIRC even the CIA factbook records based on adjusted gdp with nominal being a footnote.

If nations worked like companies, theoretically, every American could go over to China and then buy out the country because of how appreciated the USD is. That is the on paper advantage of nominal gdp. But nations don't work like companies. If a lot of Americans go over to China and massively spend, it will just change the supply and demand, rapidly devalue the dollar vs the RMB. Besides, most of China isn't for sale internationally. There are national security concerns etc.

So yeah, a fun little exercise of hypotheticals but god awful at actually describing reality. And when looking ahead, it is better to look at the real world than at hypotheticals.
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
Except it does not compare international power unless you're talking about the small portion of international exports and so on. Which would be of some interest if a country is very export driven, such as Germany for example. Again, these prices can constantly fluctuate based on inflation in different economies.

It is not just military power that brings prestige but also how economic power translates into general purchasable goods. Economy is a measure of the nation's power and ability for their people to thrive by expanding goods, if your model cannot show the level of economic activity correctly, any "prestige" assigned to it is just random coping, not actual prestige. IIRC even the CIA factbook records based on adjusted gdp with nominal being a footnote.

If nations worked like companies, theoretically, every American could go over to China and then buy out the country because of how appreciated the USD is. That is the on paper advantage of nominal gdp. But nations don't work like companies. If a lot of Americans go over to China and massively spend, it will just change the supply and demand, rapidly devalue the dollar vs the RMB. Besides, most of China isn't for sale internationally. There are national security concerns etc.

So yeah, a fun little exercise of hypotheticals but god awful at actually describing reality. And when looking ahead, it is better to look at the real world than at hypotheticals.
You may be right, but nobody paid attention when China passed US ppp GDP, everybody will pay attention when China passes US nominal GDP
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
You may be right, but nobody paid attention when China passed US ppp GDP, everybody will pay attention when China passes US nominal GDP
Fairly sure the way both nations plan their economies, the moment of syzygy was immensely important, but mainly to government economists.

Other nations also paid attention, mostly ones whose fate is intertwined with Asia. For example SK's attitude has changed and Japan is far less openly aggressive. And whatever OPEC is doing.

Despite not being the global reserve currency, it seems that China is the number 1 economic influencer nowadays, whether you are the British, Saudis, Russians or in South America, and they are treated that way.

So, reality whether domestic or foreign lines up with what is projected by China's actual gdp and not the downwards adjusted one due to RMB depreciation.

What US itself claims, it will keep doing whatever it wants. I don't think any official American documents claim they are the largest economy ever since China passed them. Perhaps the occasional chest thumping nationalist speech makes this claim, because they don't need to base policy on stuff like that.

Instead, Americans talk about being "the best market" "the largest community of free markets" and so on. The best and the "free" are cool terms because they are subjective.

Americans will keep claiming they are the "best" now just like they've done ever since China passed them and for the foreseeable future. Nothing will really change that.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Won't they just divert attention from that as well to GDP per capita instead
There are many pointless ways to count stuff that doesn't reflect real life and nobody important cares about.

One can count the number of cars. The numbers of televisions perhaps. Amount of meat consumption or calorie intake? Or maybe amount of insurances sold?

None of these methods will give a picture of what the national power of a country is, which is why we even bother to measure economy at all in the first place.
 

Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
The EU economy has not taken advantage of the new economic models and was instead basically further colonized by US corporate giants as a result of their complacency. A lot of the cheaper products and basic industry were also replaced with Chinese products. Add to this now Europe nerfing itself by cutting itself off Russian energy and resources and it is a recipe for failure. Europe is headed the same way as Japan I think.
Add the 10,000 little giants being cultivated and they will pick whatever will be left of the EU.
 
Top