No need. China won't lose, so better to stay in the future 2030 getting depressed seeing a successful China getting stronger by the day
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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The forecasts for this year are a bit bizarre. China is expected to reach 123.2tn RMB/20.3tn USD this year, but that implies an exchange rate of 6.08! The RMB has never been that strong this year, although it will probably appreciate beyond that by 2027.
In the long term, this should be reflected in exchange rates. The dollar will lose value against the RMB
Not necessarily. The total volume of currency exchanged between USD and RMB is a trivial fraction of the size of the Chinese economy. The exchange rate is much more a gauge of sentiment than it is any accurate reflection of underlying economic realities.
supercat
Major
What do you mean? China's GDP is already more than at least 15% larger than America's in PPP terms. PPP is the more meaningful measure of the size of a country's GDP than the nominal terms, according to IMF and CIA. China will grow faster than the U.S. in 2022 (despite the disruption of the zero-COVID policy), 2x faster in 2023, and 4x faster in 2024. China's growth will probably also outpace US' from 2025 to 2030. If you add yuan appreciation/dollar depreciation, it will be almost certain that China's nominal GDP will be larger than America's. The only question is, how much larger?
BTW, China is unlikely to be caught in the "middle-income trap":
So that means that you won't need to be back until 2030, right?
Well, see you then and wish you a good health, because I could already imagine what 8 more years of cope would do to you.
@escobar I seriously question the overall effectiveness and influence of CPTPP without a single large anchoring economic power (think of a mall without anchor stores). RECP has already contributed to the China's historical $1 trillion trade surplus and economic developement in SEA. What tangible economic results has CPTPP shown? From Canada, I have not seen any noticeable investments from any of the CPTPP nations, nor vice versa.
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Australia following EU and running back to Beijing to beg for forgiveness in 3,2,1
If 93% of US GDP in 2027, that would mean a GDP gap of 7%. Assuming Chinese GDP outgrows US by only 3% each year results in an overtake by 2030, and outgrowing by 2% each year results in overtake by 2031?
What surprises me more is how much EU has fallen behind both US and China. I can now see EU per capita GDP falling to 50% of America/Japan/South Korea, something unimaginable even 5 years ago.
the sad part is that taiwan uses its money made in china to support other hostile nations and keep sucking us's co@k !!
Why is China still doing bussiness with it ?
Why does the US keep on doing business with China? They need to. You can’t replace Taiwanese semiconductor yet.