Chinese Economics Thread

[Feima]

Of course, I agree. I am not suggesting killing the real estate sector and I am not an economist, however I can give an example from my country. When you have gains through stocks like dividends you have around 30% tax on earnings while selling a house with profit is 22% on earnings. As a result there many more speculating in real estate than in the stock market.

That's not the main reason. The main reason is leverage: You don't pay in full when buying property, you get to use borrowed money. You pay in full buying stocks. By using leverage, the return on your actual invested capital is higher.

Of course it is also possible to buy stocks using leverage. But most markets have some regulatory control over letting retail investors trade in financial instruments using leverage, whereas buying property on leverage is a routine, normalized thing.

 

[56860]

Whenever this comes up, there are only two questions to ask:
1. What is the number of deaths from COVID that will occur if "XYZ" method of "opening up" occurs?
2. What is the level of sociopolitical instability that will occur due to the above number of deaths from COVID?

If the level of sociopolitical instability is one that the central government deems too risky, then the safest option is going to be to choose a slower and more cautious way of opening up.


Slightly better economic performance is always going to be outweighed in importance by sociopolitical stability of the nation.

I would argue number infected with long covid as a more important measure than number of deaths.

We also need to define economic performance. Economic performance in the short term - no doubt letting it rip would prove superior. But in doing so you are also severely damaging your stock of human capital because hundreds of millions will come down with long covid. So is it better in the long run? I'm not sure.

 

[Feima]

Outside of Western style of "letting it rip" and Zero Covid lockdowns, is there a middle ground way/ways?

And what are the reasons why health experts from Singapore or Taiwan decided to relax their covid policies? Their healthcare systems aren't that much better than China's.

Taiwan's Covid policy was cover-ups, lies and political grandstanding both locally and internationally all the way.

For Singapore, I think the main driver is economic.

 

[KYli]

70% of the US population is vaccinated but death rates for vaccinated people is ~5-6x less than unvaccinated people.

You are moving the goalpost. There is never a dispute over vaccinated has lower chance of deaths. I said that more deaths are now vaccinated but you said I am wrong. I am asking you to prove me wrong.

Yes, vaccine mandates are more coercieve than lockdowns. Makes sense lol

Chinese laws say otherwise. Not that the Chinese government couldn't force them to vaccinate by persuasion and restriction but it decides not to do so and adhere to the law at the very beginning of pandemic.

Literally the same case fatality as the flu

No, the US has 220,000 covid deaths this year so far.

China did not shut down.

China did shut down schools.

20% was in fact true and even now, the unemployment rate is higher than it ever has been.

20% is no longer the case. Right now, it is 18.7%. I never dispute that the youth unemployment is high. I am saying this data has been distorted and manipulated by MSM.

Should we then compare against youth unemployment in Korea, Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan?

It means the stock market went up and older people retired from the workforce and that the labor market has recovered so much that even hospitality has hiring difficulties. Productivity is a residual of the growth in labor hours compared to the growth in incomes; obviously, when the labor market is doing strong and hours at low productivity segments like restaurants and hotels are hiring like crazy, that would increase working hours substantially without much income growth.

Why South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. These countries only exit covid restrictions recently and have not totally lifted all restrictions yet. why not all those Western countries that are experienced hyperinflation at the moment.

Not really, over 1 millions elderly have died due to covid and millions of others are too sick to work. They are not retiring early due to better financial circumstance. They were forced to retire because they are either death or too sick.

Statistics suggest otherwise. As sick leave and long covid preventing people from working and lower the productivity rate.

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• Around 16 million working-age Americans (those aged 18 to 65) have long Covid today.
• Of those, 2 to 4 million are out of work due to long Covid.
• The annual cost of those lost wages alone is around $170 billion a year (and potentially as high as $230 billion).

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

You are moving the goalpost. There is never a dispute over vaccinated has lower chance of deaths. I said that more deaths are now vaccinated but you said I am wrong. I am asking you to prove me wrong.

Chinese laws say otherwise. Not that the Chinese government couldn't force them to vaccinate by persuasion and restriction but it decides not to do so and adhere to the law at the very beginning of pandemic.

No, the US has 220,000 covid deaths this year so far.

China did shut down schools.

20% is no longer the case. Right now, it is 18.7%. I never dispute that the youth unemployment is high. I am saying this data has been distorted and manipulated by MSM.

Why South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. These countries only exit covid restrictions recently and have not totally lifted all restrictions yet. why not all those Western countries that are experienced hyperinflation at the moment.

Not really, over 1 millions elderly have died due to covid and millions of others are too sick to work. They are not retiring early due to better financial circumstance. They were forced to retire because they are either death or too sick.

Statistics suggest otherwise. As sick leave and long covid preventing people from working and lower the productivity rate.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

• Around 16 million working-age Americans (those aged 18 to 65) have long Covid today.
• Of those, 2 to 4 million are out of work due to long Covid.
• The annual cost of those lost wages alone is around $170 billion a year (and potentially as high as $230 billion).

Don't bother arguing with that yet again lovely fella. He's no different than a flat earther believers that adhere to that yet idiotic and nonsensical unscientific crack pot theory.

Seriously, why do folks like the one we're going back and forth with tries to insist that China must do X,Y,Z, as if they have any credibility and leg to stand on. China got to where it's at for adhering to seeking truths from facts contrary to what their ideological doctrinaires a.k.a. Western supremacists insist otherwise

 

[hhuang41]

You are moving the goalpost. There is never a dispute over vaccinated has lower chance of deaths. I said that more deaths are now vaccinated but you said I am wrong. I am asking you to prove me wrong.

Nah; the data would imply that 30% of the population with a 5x probability of dying would be the majority as to 70% with 0.2x chance of dying

Chinese laws say otherwise. Not that the Chinese government couldn't force them to vaccinate by persuasion and restriction but it decides not to do so and adhere to the law at the very beginning of pandemic.

Laws can be changed (as they relate to vaccine mandates). The fact that China has lockdowns but no vaccine mandates is truly weird. Lockdowns, if anything, are a massive violation of due process which is guranteed under China's Constitution.

No, the US has 220,000 covid deaths this year so far.

China did shut down schools.

But not businesses

20% is no longer the case. Right now, it is 18.7%. I never dispute that the youth unemployment is high. I am saying this data has been distorted and manipulated by MSM.

It's being manipulated when they copy+paste what the National Bureau of Statistics

Why South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. These countries only exit covid restrictions recently and have not totally lifted all restrictions yet. why not all those Western countries that are experienced hyperinflation at the moment.

Indeed, it shows that there are ways to have not murder the economy and limit COVID mortality and it shows that at high levels of vaccination, COVID and the flu are one and the same.

Not really, over 1 millions elderly have died due to covid and millions of others are too sick to work. They are not retiring early due to better financial circumstance. They were forced to retire because they are either death or too sick.

Statistics suggest otherwise. As sick leave and long covid preventing people from working and lower the productivity rate.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

• Around 16 million working-age Americans (those aged 18 to 65) have long Covid today.
• Of those, 2 to 4 million are out of work due to long Covid.
• The annual cost of those lost wages alone is around $170 billion a year (and potentially as high as $230 billion).

The United States prime-age labor force participation rate has never been higher; identification of having a disability on the Census Current Population Survey is the same as it was pre-COVID and lower productivity employees entering the labor force (such as manual labor, by the mechanics of how the BLS calculates productivity, pushes productivity down).

 

[Minm]

70% of the US population is vaccinated but death rates for vaccinated people is ~5-6x less than unvaccinated people.

Yes, vaccine mandates are more coercieve than lockdowns. Makes sense lol

Literally the same case fatality as the flu

China did not shut down.

20% was in fact true and even now, the unemployment rate is higher than it ever has been.

Should we then compare against youth unemployment in Korea, Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan?

It means the stock market went up and older people retired from the workforce and that the labor market has recovered so much that even hospitality has hiring difficulties. Productivity is a residual of the growth in labor hours compared to the growth in incomes; obviously, when the labor market is doing strong and hours at low productivity segments like restaurants and hotels are hiring like crazy, that would increase working hours substantially without much income growth.

We all know that zero covid has its costs and has to end at some point. But if you were in charge of that decision, how and when would you open up?

The autumn and winter wave are coming soon and we don't know what new variant will emerge this winter.

The careful, safe strategy is to observe how the virus will behave in the rest of the world over the first winter without lockdowns. If all goes well then China can follow that path and give everyone a booster and then open up slowly next year. But if this winter will be the next disaster for the west, then zero covid would have been proved right.

 

[hhuang41]

Don't bother arguing with that yet again lovely fella. He's no different than a flat earther believers that adhere to that yet idiotic and nonsensical unscientific crack pot theory.

Seriously, why do folks like the one we're going back and forth with tries to insist that China must do X,Y,Z, as if they have any credibility and leg to stand on. China got to where it's at for adhering to seeking truths from facts contrary to what their ideological doctrinaires a.k.a. Western supremacists insist otherwise

China's overarching goal for centuries, which goes on to this day, has been to catch up and surpass the West. It's implicit as well in discussions on China that the West has advantages China does not have (or else the fear of sanctions and the grumbling about export controls); yet whenever you even slightly suggest learning from the West and adopting the policies they implemented to be successful, everyone loses it.

 

[KYli]

Nah; the data would imply that 30% of the population with a 5x probability of dying would be the majority as to 70% with 0.2x chance of dying

Do you read what I said? I said that vaccinated people are now making up over 50% of deaths. Prove me wrong with data.

Laws can be changed (as they relate to vaccine mandates). The fact that China has lockdowns but no vaccine mandates is truly weird. Lockdowns, if anything, are a massive violation of due process which is guranteed under China's Constitution.

Can you not say something that you don't know? China has laws for lockdowns for infectious diseases. It is within the government authority. Don't talk nonsense.

But not businesses

Because it is not as bad as covid. Just look up how many localized lockdowns that China has implemented over the years for infectious diseases.

It's being manipulated when they copy+paste what the National Bureau of Statistics

Playing dumb and ignorant. I am not going to waste my time.

Indeed, it shows that there are ways to have not murder the economy and limit COVID mortality and it shows that at high levels of vaccination, COVID and the flu are one and the same.

Right, Japan hospitals are overwhelmed. Mortality is rising. Deaths can't be buried. Patients are turn away. Economy is in bad shape. That is what you call better way. BTW, Yen is tanking and Bank of Japan is doing everything in its power to keep bond rate at 0.25%.

The United States prime-age labor force participation rate has never been higher; identification of having a disability on the Census Current Population Survey is the same as it was pre-COVID and lower productivity employees entering the labor force (such as manual labor, by the mechanics of how the BLS calculates productivity, pushes productivity down).

Moving the goalpost again. Fact: labor participation rate is 1% lower than 2020. Fact: 4 millions out of work due to long covid. Fact: over 1 million deaths due to covid and still average 400 deaths per day due to covid. Fact: sick leave has become a major problem for employers due to covid. Fact: US is experiencing hyperinflation at the moment and covid is a major factor.

I am not going to waste my time with you if you don't refute me with solid data and statistics. All major economies are in bad shape at the moment even after they abandon covid restrictions. You have no where to hide from this fact.

 

[hhuang41]

We all know that zero covid has its costs and has to end at some point. But if you were in charge of that decision, how and when would you open up?

Vaccine mandates, mask mandates as well as surveillance to notify people if they've been and/or are entering in infected areas - if they want to self-quarantine, they can take that option. If they are scared, they can avoid those locations. Everyone else can continue living like normal.

The careful, safe strategy is to observe how the virus will behave in the rest of the world over the first winter without lockdowns. If all goes well then China can follow that path and give everyone a booster and then open up slowly next year. But if this winter will be the next disaster for the west, then zero covid would have been proved right.

That's certainly fair. Will have to give that some thought.