Chinese Economics Thread

ansy1968

Brigadier
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WTO anti-dumping disputes typically take 10 to 20 years to settle, China can wait this long, but the Aussie 4-yr election cycle can't!

There might be some back-channel chat ever since Albo (their new prime minister) came to power, despite the need to superficially maintain being tough on China.
@Strangelove bro remember what I say about Trump doing a Nixon? well the Australian are the initiators and big brother will follow suit, so China should be magnanimous cause the US are watching. Now I surely get criticism BUT hear me out, China is not ready to confront the Collective West even IF the Russian lend a hand and how do you define victory any way? For me China should bear the insult until 2025, it's only 3 years from now, that is the inflection point. Right now China is being help by the incompetency of western leaders and the Ukraine War, the gap had shrunk massively and comrade Joe is doing a great job, all she had to do is buckle down and work hard to overcome those vulnerabilities. For China, victory is being acknowledge as a PEER Competitor, having it gave you respect and you have the power to reclaimed Taiwan without fighting as you negotiate with the Americans directly. It may sound fantastic BUT we're getting close to it, thus the panic by DPP, Japan and the Neocons.
 

Bellum_Romanum

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China is in no danger of losing its supply chain supremacy to India or Vietnam
  • For all the talk of foreign firms leaving China over the Covid-19 pandemic and global uncertainty, examples of wholesale departures are hard to find
  • China’s advantages in quality, cost, timeliness and security will keep its central role in global supply chains in place for a long time to come


Subramanian Swamy on suicide watch list please

This whole India-Vietnam alliance is a joke please
But what I don't understand is why would any businesses who wants to make money, especially profit from China and the Chinese market would then move out its supposed facilities into countries like India, Vietnam only for their said products to be then sold back into China?

This sort of strategy would work if China isn't one of the largest market or in some cases the biggest source of revenues for a lot of western companies.

A lot of the so-called news, analysis from these experts have been colored and dumbed down by politics and ideological western nonsense that most people that are already in the dark about these sort of issues becomes even more dumber and gullible being fed these atrocious illogical nonsense.

I mean, I am not an economist but any person with any sense of geopolitical understanding would conclude that much of the reasons why Vietnam is an attractive destination for businesses is it's close proximity to China and the fact that ASEAN region was and is still pegged by most analysts to have a growing robust economy (pre-Ukraine analysis) which is more than what was projected from the economic growth in EU, U.S. which means business opportunity to make money. Not to mention the region offers political, social, and cultural stability in relative comparison to other continents like Africa, the Middle East that have large size population.

China prospering allows secondary, tertiary effects on other countries around her periphery and the fact that its able to tap on it's surplus to essentially build and rebuild a lot of the infrastructures around the world have transformed what was once a mere possibility for ASEAN countries economic growth to materialize that's now being realized.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
That's pretty sound logic - if you believe in a zero-sum world. I think China will continue to increase market share but there is a cost/effiency trade-off the more you try to do everything at once. Just because everything can be done domestically, doesn't mean it will unless there is a political imperative to do so (e.g. chips).

Well, we can see China is fine with low-value manufacturing leaving. In terms of medium and high value economic activities, the Chinese domestic market alone will support an industry which will be competitive against foreign competitors.

And remember that there is a large surplus of investment capital, low-skilled workers and highly skilled personnel. So they will likely take a lot of market share in the next 10 years before wages/costs start becoming too high.
 

gadgetcool5

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(Bloomberg) -- TikTok’s admission that some China-based workers have access to data on US users provided fresh ammunition to a Republican member of the Federal Communications Commission who is trying to get the video-sharing service dropped from major app stores.


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I don't get it. These people are complete and utter fools if this is true. Compliance has to be #1 at TikTok. The data must be strictly segregated or else it leaves TikTok's enemies an excuse to push for a ban or forced sale of the app.
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Remember that we already see low-value manufacturing leaving China because China is becoming expensive.
Which is a good thing. A country that's stuck on textiles isn't climbing the prosperity ladder.

Let's imagine a world (around 2035) where China has grown to twice the size of the US. Today, China is about 30% larger.

China is not larger by the metric that matters - nominal GDP. The CCP itself doesn't use PPP when they are writing economic reports. If they don't use PPP, why should we? Whether China will pass the US or not is an open question. I think they have a decent shot but they won't become 2X USA's GDP by 2035.

We should see a further deindustrialisation in the West (particularly in Germany and Japan).

I disagree. Remember that as China climbs the income ladder, their needs to import expensive stuff also increases in tandem. China will certaily export more machinery than they import, but it's a complimentary issue. There will always be niche cases in every industry where it makes sense to import a specialised piece of equipment than do it all yourself from scratch. As long as China become much bigger, it doesn't necessarily imply deindustrialisation for Germany. Even if China's share of imports decreases, in absolute nominal terms it will continue to rise.

A growing pie is good for everyone. I just reject the zero-sum theories.
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
remember that there is a large surplus of investment capital, low-skilled workers and highly skilled personnel.

China no longer has an abundance of low-skilled workers. China's workforce has been declining since about 2014 and the new workers who are replacing the old ones are much more skilled.

This is a demographic profile of a high-income country, which China will become very soon.

So they will likely take a lot of market share in the next 10 years before wages/costs start becoming too high.

China will continue to gain market share even once wages rise to high levels. Why do you think Germany is so competitive in manufacturing despite having high wages? Productivity matters more. Trying to compete on low wages is a fool's errand.
 

getready

Senior Member
WTO anti-dumping disputes typically take 10 to 20 years to settle, China can wait this long, but the Aussie 4-yr election cycle can't!

There might be some back-channel chat ever since Albo (their new prime minister) came to power, despite the need to superficially maintain being tough on China.
Aus have been going around the world saying China is a dangerous force. Penny wong whirlwind trip to pacific nations competing for influence against china maybe treated indifferently by Chinese leadership but albo going to NATO and joining in their crusade against china and expansion into Asia isn't gonna go down well with Chinese leadership.

The frosty relationship will be here to stay unless there's a change in aus foreign policy. But we already know they are americas bitch.
 

xypher

Senior Member
Registered Member
Aus have been going around the world saying China is a dangerous force. Penny wong whirlwind trip to pacific nations competing for influence against china maybe treated indifferently by Chinese leadership but albo going to NATO and joining in their crusade against china and expansion into Asia isn't gonna go down well with Chinese leadership.

The frosty relationship will be here to stay unless there's a change in aus foreign policy. But we already know they are americas bitch.
Exactly, and I don't think China is in any urgency to talk with Australia. I think the tariffs and trade bans on Australia should be increased, not removed. Kick them while their daddy cannot do anything due to internal instability, rising inflation, and looming recession.

Btw, maybe China should take an idea out of the West's playbook and impose a price cap on Australian iron ore? They won't be able to find another country that consumes as much ore as China, either sell at that price or close the mines. Meanwhile, steadily increase imports of ore from Brazil, Russia, and African nations while slowly lowering the price cap for Australia.
 
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