Dropping Zero covid is going to be a
supremely complicated task. I can't emphasize how hard it is going to be. It's most likely a full reopening will only start in 2023. There is a huge list of very complicated things the party will need to do to avoid future mass COVID casualties, just based on my surface level analysis:
1.
Stockpile a huge amount of therapeutics, particularly the Pfizer COVID pill. Its a safe bet that there will be runs on stockpiles too considering
, and the reaction to the now 2 ( as of 5/15/2022) toddler deaths in Taiwan, the party is going to have to distribute these meds equitably while also taking into considering which cities/villages/provinces need a higher supply due to poor medical facilities
2.
A massive expansion of the medical system. The hospitalization rate in the US currently sits at 4/10,000 but has gone as high as 33/10,000 at worst. Assuming the average rate in China will be 10/10,000, COVID combined with Flu, and other incidents (car crash etc) would easily overwhelm the majority of hospital's in China especially considering some provinces only have 2 beds per 1000 residents. Living with COVID will require an entire rethink of Hospital capacity planning. COVID being not as seasonal and more severe, will mean every year you could see 2-4 major outbreaks. Roughly guessing, I think China will need as many as 8 hospital beds per 1000 residents with at least 5% being full care ICU's. This would mean a doubling of the medical system basically. A massive influx of medical students will be needed and medical schools will need to expand. A new accelerated medical license aimed directly at care for people with respiratory diseases maybe prudent.
3.
Expanded worker protections to include time off due to COVID. As mentioned in the previous point, COVID being not as seasonal and more severe, will mean every year you could see 2-4 major outbreaks. This will mean that workers will need more sick time to prevent further spreading of the disease to the entire workplace and 2. as COVID can cause heart inflammation, and symptoms can hit suddenly without warning, working with COVID raises the chance of sudden death a small but unignorable amount. Forcing people to work while having COVID needs to be punished heavily. This time off should also include an extended recovery period for those suffering long COVID.
4.
Massively boosting vaccine production. Every person will need either 1 booster a year or a new 2 dose regimen every 2 years or so based on the COVID mutation pattern so far. This obviously means someone needs to make them. Massive vaccination drives will need to occur regularly and health authorities will need to keep a close eye on any new variants. China will probably also have to cover a significant proportion of the global south as well.
5.
Build a comprehensive national cold chain. I doubt China will continue to solely rely on inactivated virus vaccines for much longer especially with multiple MRNA candidates already in the final phases of testing. While able to achieve better protection they are much harder to transport. The Party is somehow going to have to build ultra cold storage that is accessible to every remote village, town and city in the PRC. Even if you hit 10+ million administrated doses a day, its going to take several months to vaccinate everyone and doses only last about 2 weeks to a month at freezer temps.
6.
New regulations for workers working with and around animals. Spillback should be a huge concern, infecting animal populations with COVID can lead to deadly potential mutations and new variants that evade vaccines. Workers that have COVID need to be vigorously separated from the animals they work with. There is a reason why Denmark culled its entire mink population of 3.6 million when it detected COVID cases in them, and China needs to do the same for its farmed animals. This means preparing for sudden food supply chain shocks and regularly testing animal populations nationally.
There are like 4 others I can think of but I am lazy and don't want to type. Either way just opening up with zero preparation is
very very very negligent. And each one of the tasks I wrote are like more than most governments do in a year. There is no possibility of returning to the pre-pandemic version of things unless somehow every country adopts a China level zero-covid policy for 1-3 months. This is going to fundamentally change how we live and everyone should know that.
. It seems like the real fight is on now. No matter how difficult it is, challenges are to be conquered. Such is life.