Eh, do you live in some kind of parallel universe? Literally nothing of that is true, lol. China is having talks with Saudi Arabia to buy their petroleum with Yuan, not Ruble. Moreover, Ruble will probably go to the 90-100 RUB per USD range by the end of the year when Central Bank starts lifting the current restrictions (limits on transfer and ownership of USD, pushing exporters to sell 80% of their USD revenue, stopping foreign capital from leaving, etc.). They already lifted the 12% fee which led to RUB instantly going to around 80 per USD from 72-73. No one is going to hold meaningful Ruble reserves for now because of volatility.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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If you are following the Chinese social media, it is obvious that neither the government nor the people care about economic growth right now. Prioritizing lives over money was not empty rhetoric. It is really what China collectively thinks. Money can be made later. And I am still not convinced not locking down is good for the economy either. The rest of the world has not been doing good.
Just check out the currency charts, all of them are collapsing since the seizure except the dollar, which is pegged to the Yuan. Putin is a genius, he left just enough reserve for them to seize to kill their own currencies. This will be talked about in all the history books as the greatest move in human history.
The West has lost the war, forever.
Once the Yuan is repegged to the Ruble, it's over.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
The dollar is unique in so many other ways than having the Yuan peg. Its greatest power ad resilience lies in it being the world reserve currency. Don't underestimate it; don't imagine its demise due to hope. An economic weapon as powerful as the dollar took WWII to forge, and it just might take WWIII to break if we need to go there. What's certain is that it's going to be a very long and very hard battle to dethrone the US economy and the dollar dominance and that battle has only begun.
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The only currency which has the chance to replace the Dollar is the Yuan. The Euro might have been a close second but they just committed suicide by proving they aren't an independent economy. For the Yuan to replace the Dollar, China needs to increase the amount of settlements done in Yuan and make the Yuan something ordinary people worldwide can use to buy goods and services. And probably eventually make their own investment platform, i.e. stocks, bonds, etc. Right now it isn't there. Not by a long shot.
Ruble has chance to become one of the major traded currencies like people hold Yen or Pound now. If Russia's EAEU grows perhaps almost as big as Euro trade. But right now it clearly isn't there.
Ruble has chance to become one of the major traded currencies like people hold Yen or Pound now. If Russia's EAEU grows perhaps almost as big as Euro trade. But right now it clearly isn't there.
There is probably a shit ton of US based debt in the world so for like the next 10~30 years there will always be a demand for US dollars to pay off those debts.
I really kinda doubt this was some 5D chess move by Putin, from what I could gather he has since 2014 been moving US dollar foreign reserves to EU euros, but well that got seized as well.
With that said, while I don't think Putin has been playing 5D chess, I do think he has been quick to realize what the various moves meant, and therefore was able to quickly react to them (like basically making the ruble into a petroruble), which I think has resulted in people thinking he has been playing 5D chess (when in reality he's been good at exploiting his opponents mistake, although he kinda got cornered in the first place).
it is not just trading size but relationships among elites and cultural openness. where do you think most Arab elites spend there vacation and have second homes?. than there is confidence on education/ health/food. the bigger think is reliability of engineering in production of energy/ aviation and aviation routes. population is sparse and distance in desert are long. strong performance for airconditioning in hot weather. than there is spine needed to print the illegal part in eyes of international community.
its very long way to go before one currency become a stored of wealth. diversification will happen but it will be widely distributed among countries.
Freezing and seizing Russian assets was a huge mistake on the West's part which made the whole Ukraine campaign (that is objectively not going well) more successful than it otherwise would be. Now developing countries and countries like Saudi Arabia are seriously looking into diversifying away from the West as the latter proved (once again) that their "rule of law" narrative is bullshit and they could steal your stuff at a whim if you disobey them. I think Switzerland will be particularly hard hit by the diversification - they made a huge mistake by succumbing to pressure. The myth of Swiss banking was already dying (with Swiss succumbing to the US pressure of basically waiving the banking secrecy) but now it is officially dead - there is literally zero reason to hold your wealth in Swiss banks now, you might as well just store them in American or other European banks.
Neither of the things you've said prove that OPEC is ditching other currencies for Ruble, lol. What kind of demagogical bullshit is that? Ruble won't become the reserve currency, you can screenshot this and revisit in a few years. If you think otherwise, then you don't understand how the economics work - USD became so influential because the US was the largest economy in the 20th century by a large margin and the number one trading nation. Trading in dollars allowed you to buy American goods and services, get access to their real estate and stock markets, effectively work with American companies (most of which were at the forefront in many industries) and huge American consumer market, etc. This was further strengthened by the petrodollar and general commodity market moving to the USD which made trading in dollars even more attractive.
China checks a lot of the things listed above and they have been expanding influence in large commodity exporter (African, Middle Eastern, Central Asian countries + Russia which now has not many choices) countries. The recent moves to re-orient trade in SEA to local currencies, digital Yuan, talks with Saudis about buying oil in Yuans, etc. indicate that the Chinese government is indeed interested in expanding the Yuan's role in the global financial system. These actions directly confront your narrative that China prefers Ruble over Yuans (lol).
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you are missing important point. when US became dominant. Arab population was barely 80 million. now it will be over 400m. that make Grain imports play much more important role than what happened couple decades ago. It Russia that set price of energy by being member of OPEC+.