Chinese Economics Thread

[Overbom]

I don't know if the leadership has learned anything other than reacting in the most egregious fashion whenever a crisis occurs. The leadership on the provincial, municipal levels have given me a very negative impression which could only be worse from the people that are on the ground living under the incompetent leaders.

Which begs the question, why is there a tendency that these appointed leaders can't seem or has so far failed in being pro-active with their duties in terms of pandemic mitigation control, employing effective, and efficient communication to the public they serve ensuring a more trusting relationship between the state and the public. Transparency in terms of where the mistakes are made, why they were made, and what steps are being made to rectify the issues. Anger, disappointment, frustrations would inevitably happened despite best efforts whenever a crisis happens anywhere in the world let alone in China but the trick should be that holding yourself accountable by expecting public outrage as part, and parcel of being a leader or wanting to lead any public institution.

I get the sense that these Chinese regional or municipal leadership cadres have let their materialistic ambitions get in the way of fulfilling their duties responsibly or maybe they don't have the necessary tools to tackle such problems with respect to handling the pandemic. If that's to be the case, shouldn't all the big regional leaders hold meetings or review the processes of their municipal leaders to ascertain what are the existing deficiencies within the system that can potentially disrupt or harm the public life if and when any crisis (health, natural disasters) occurs. That way the relevant authorities can gain not just valuable insights but also put in place not just recommendations but actually shore up all possible contingencies to limit any potential damage from worst case scenarios.

I sure hope that the PLA isn't this incompetent, and that their leaders are not pencil pushers without any ounce of character because that would spell the end for the party as we know it if and when the fight against Taiwan and the U.S. turned into a massive defeat due to defective training, defective equipments, and leaders being appointed through patronage rather than Supreme competence. All these meritocracy spiel would be just reduced to irrelevance.

If too many bad things are happening at the provincial municipal level, it might mean that the problem is systemic.

Personally I would like to see more centralisation. You cannot expect every municipality to have the required expertise to formulate their own covid policies/counter-measures.

Power should be taken off from local governments and then given to the central gov.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

I don't know if the leadership has learned anything other than reacting in the most egregious fashion whenever a crisis occurs. The leadership on the provincial, municipal levels have given me a very negative impression which could only be worse from the people that are on the ground living under the incompetent leaders.

Which begs the question, why is there a tendency that these appointed leaders can't seem or has so far failed in being pro-active with their duties in terms of pandemic mitigation control, employing effective, and efficient communication to the public they serve ensuring a more trusting relationship between the state and the public. Transparency in terms of where the mistakes are made, why they were made, and what steps are being made to rectify the issues. Anger, disappointment, frustrations would inevitably happened despite best efforts whenever a crisis happens anywhere in the world let alone in China but the trick should be that holding yourself accountable by expecting public outrage as part, and parcel of being a leader or wanting to lead any public institution.

I get the sense that these Chinese regional or municipal leadership cadres have let their materialistic ambitions get in the way of fulfilling their duties responsibly or maybe they don't have the necessary tools to tackle such problems with respect to handling the pandemic. If that's to be the case, shouldn't all the big regional leaders hold meetings or review the processes of their municipal leaders to ascertain what are the existing deficiencies within the system that can potentially disrupt or harm the public life if and when any crisis (health, natural disasters) occurs. That way the relevant authorities can gain not just valuable insights but also put in place not just recommendations but actually shore up all possible contingencies to limit any potential damage from worst case scenarios.

I sure hope that the PLA isn't this incompetent, and that their leaders are not pencil pushers without any ounce of character because that would spell the end for the party as we know it if and when the fight against Taiwan and the U.S. turned into a massive defeat due to defective training, defective equipments, and leaders being appointed through patronage rather than Supreme competence. All these meritocracy spiel would be just reduced to irrelevance.

Eh lots of different cities and provinces have done better than Shanghai though.

Has there also been fuckups and problems other places? Yes, but the focus should be on whether or not those problems get fixed, and if similar problems like it can be stopped from happening in other places.

 

[Coalescence]

I don't know if the leadership has learned anything other than reacting in the most egregious fashion whenever a crisis occurs. The leadership on the provincial, municipal levels have given me a very negative impression which could only be worse from the people that are on the ground living under the incompetent leaders.

Which begs the question, why is there a tendency that these appointed leaders can't seem or has so far failed in being pro-active with their duties in terms of pandemic mitigation control, employing effective, and efficient communication to the public they serve ensuring a more trusting relationship between the state and the public. Transparency in terms of where the mistakes are made, why they were made, and what steps are being made to rectify the issues. Anger, disappointment, frustrations would inevitably happened despite best efforts whenever a crisis happens anywhere in the world let alone in China but the trick should be that holding yourself accountable by expecting public outrage as part, and parcel of being a leader or wanting to lead any public institution.

I get the sense that these Chinese regional or municipal leadership cadres have let their materialistic ambitions get in the way of fulfilling their duties responsibly or maybe they don't have the necessary tools to tackle such problems with respect to handling the pandemic. If that's to be the case, shouldn't all the big regional leaders hold meetings or review the processes of their municipal leaders to ascertain what are the existing deficiencies within the system that can potentially disrupt or harm the public life if and when any crisis (health, natural disasters) occurs. That way the relevant authorities can gain not just valuable insights but also put in place not just recommendations but actually shore up all possible contingencies to limit any potential damage from worst case scenarios.

I sure hope that the PLA isn't this incompetent, and that their leaders are not pencil pushers without any ounce of character because that would spell the end for the party as we know it if and when the fight against Taiwan and the U.S. turned into a massive defeat due to defective training, defective equipments, and leaders being appointed through patronage rather than Supreme competence. All these meritocracy spiel would be just reduced to irrelevance.

There's some truth to local governments being more incompetent and self-serving. One time when I was in China, my uncle remarked that the local government are corrupt and useless, investing government funds into projects that are not useful to the common folks. But I wouldn't say every province is incompetent and corrupt, other provinces seem to be handling it well, like Shenzhen for example where they had like a 2 week partial lockdown and managed to get the cases down.

In Shanghai and Xi'an's case, its from neglecting testing and hiding cases, where they let their cases soar to a point that its harder to do targeted lockdown and are forced to do a full lockdown.

As for the PLA, the case is a lot more different, as there are many checks and balances like equipment inspections, military exercises and testing done to expose those flaws early and before they carry out the real thing. The incompetence from the local government are only shown after the situation have become apparent, and there wasn't any test for their pandemic or lockdown preparedness. I do want the central government to setup a task force to evaluate and help with establishing and improving each province's preparedness.

 

[Overbom]

and testing done to expose those flaws early and before they carry out the real thing. The incompetence from the local government are only shown after the situation have become apparent, and there wasn't any test for their pandemic or lockdown preparedness

Now that you mentioned testing, you gave me the idea of the gov setting up an AI-training simulation which would screen bureaucrats and politicians if they want to get promoted.

It would be based on machine learning and present the candidate with random scenarios and test how would he respond. He should be allowed to have his team with him for policy advice. After each round, depending on various metrics, the AI/superiors would give a score on how well each candidate acted. This could very well go for a few days up to a week.

For anyone with <60% score, he would be disqualified.

Scenarios could include, health crisis, economic downturn, corruption, social management etc. They would initially be given some vague guidelines by the top leadership generated by the AI, and then the candidates would be tested to see how well they could solve the issues according to the guidelines

 

[Coalescence]

Now that you mentioned testing, you gave me the idea of the gov setting up an AI-training simulation which would screen bureaucrats and politicians if they want to get promoted.

It would be based on machine learning and present the candidate with random scenarios and test how would he respond. He should be allowed to have his team with him for policy advice. After each round, depending on various metrics, the AI/superiors would give a score on how well each candidate acted. This could very well go for a few days up to a week.

For anyone with <60% score, he would be disqualified.

Scenarios could include, health crisis, economic downturn, corruption, social management etc. They would initially be given some vague guidelines by the top leadership generated by the AI, and then the candidates would be tested to see how well they could solve the issues according to the guidelines

A video game but more sophisticated and advanced, with the goal of training the player to becoming a proper government official. This idea would allow for mass screening of potential candidates and impart the next generation the experience and competence of the previous folks.

An alternative would be having them play Stellaris with mods going against 10 hostile civilization surrounding their starting home system to test their micro-managing skills, jk

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

If too many bad things are happening at the provincial municipal level, it might mean that the problem is systemic.

Personally I would like to see more centralisation. You cannot expect every municipality to have the required expertise to formulate their own covid policies/counter-measures.

Power should be taken off from local governments and then given to the central gov.

But the central government isn't attuned to the local conditions and needs so I don't think that a one size fit all approach is the way to go either. There must be a mechanism that ensures even encourages leaders that accomplish their tasks despite of the rules not because of it. Perhaps there's an inherent defect in the system where certain actions or measures aren't taken by the appointed leaders out of concern, fear that their efforts even if successful will not be rewarded but rather will be punished for deviating from the approved text, plans etc...which if true leads to the disastrous results we're witnessing in China and discourages innovative thinking, thinkers, and a can do attitude from most leaders vying for top spots within the CPC.

The system should be able to give it's members especially people in the position of responsibilities leeway in tackling problems unique to the conditions of their respective Area of Responsibility (AOR). The policies shouldn't be dogmatic or even too rigid to the point of becoming incapacitated or paralyzed in times of great upheaval like the pandemic. Leaders afraid of their own shadow becomes blind, deaf, and mute when taking the necessary actions because all they could care to think about is self-preservation nothing more which in the process actually brings harm not only to themselves but to the region they serve, and ultimately to the party

 

[KYli]

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[Overbom]

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China’s economic growth likely suffered in the first quarter as a result of heavy-handed restrictions used to contain the highly contagious Omicron variant, with the initial costs expected to be reflected in economic data out next week.

With leading indicators pointing to significant downward pressure on the economy, Beijing has deployed teams of bureaucrats across the country to gather on-the-ground feedback on economic performance and business grievances.

The current economic situation could be a defining moment for China and the government must respond with swift policy adjustments, according to some observers

“There is clearly already significant disruption to the economy, with more to come before this drama ends,” Ernan Cui, an analyst with Gavekal Dragonomics, wrote in a note last week.
Gavekal said only 13 of China’s top 100 cities have not imposed any public-health restrictions, while 73 cities – accounting for 53 per cent of the national GDP – have limits on movement and activity.

“The extremely widespread Covid restrictions beyond Shanghai, and the risk-averse attitude of both central and local government officials, suggest that the economic impact of the various lockdowns will not ease in a matter of days or even weeks,” Cui said.

“Greater policy support is already on the way,” he said. “And China has the advantage of strong social mobilisation capabilities, which is what many Western countries lack.”

 

[Overbom]

In 5 hours, Import/Export (YoY) (March) data are going to be released for China. I expect that given the worldwide high PPI and CPI inflation, we are going to have double-digit increase for trade

 

[SanWenYu]

A video game but more sophisticated and advanced, with the goal of training the player to becoming a proper government official. This idea would allow for mass screening of potential candidates and impart the next generation the experience and competence of the previous folks.

An alternative would be having them play Stellaris with mods going against 10 hostile civilization surrounding their starting home system to test their micro-managing skills, jk

The game should be developed and published by the Central Party School aka 中央党校.