Chinese Economics Thread

Equation

Lieutenant General
Erik Townsend: Expect a US Price Shock as Black Swans Come Home to Roost

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!






"We live in interesting times" ;)

---------- Post added at 10:08 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:06 AM ----------

Erik Townsend: Expect a US Price Shock as Black Swans Come Home to Roost

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!




"We live in interesting times" ;)


I don't think the US is going with the QE-3 anytime soon because the Obama administration had learned that the last two didn't work out quite well. It's an interesting article never the less, thanks for posting.
 

escobar

Brigadier
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


China has made the first annual reduction in its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds in a decade. Experts are viewing the move as a sign that the country is accelerating the move away from dollar assets in search of more diversified investment channels.

According to the latest monthly figures from the U.S. Treasury Department, China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds dropped for a fifth consecutive month in Dec to 1.15 trillion U.S. dollars.


The number was an update of a figure released in February, after the U.S. department adjusted its method of collecting data on foreign holdings of U.S. government bonds, a move aimed at obtaining more information about the use of proxies buying and holding U.S. securities.

As a result, China's June holdings of U.S. Treasury securities have been amended to 1.31 trillion dollars instead of 1.17 trillion dollars. The figure at the end of 2011 was 51 billion dollars higher than the previous calculation.

According to the revised data, China cut its holdings of U.S. debt by 8.2 billion dollars in 2011 compared with the previous year. It was the first time that the country had reduced its yearly holdings since 2001.

The country remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. treasuries, but analysts suggest that China's 3.2 trillion dollars in foreign-exchange reserves means that the country is beginning to rapidly diversify its portfolio of foreign currencies.

Senior Chinese officials, including the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, have repeatedly emphasized the importance of diversification of China's foreign-exchange reserves to minimize the negative impact of fluctuations in the international financial markets.

The latest figure "clearly indicates China's intention not to put all its eggs in one basket", said Lu Feng, director of Peking University's China Macroeconomic Research Center, according to quotes in the Wall Street Journal.

"The Chinese government has reiterated that it will be actively involved in supporting the troubled euro area. With China's holdings of U.S. debt declining, plans for Europe may be already in progress," said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia-Pacific economist with Mizuho Securities Co Ltd.

The reduction of dollar assets coupled with the ambitions in the eurozone can be interpreted as an important step by Chinese foreign-exchange regulators to promote the diversification of reserves, Shen said.

China has many reasons to reduce its exposure to the U.S. dollar, such as low yields and the monetary-easing measures adopted by the U.S. government, which could lead to inflation that could erode the value of those holdings, said Wei Liang, a researcher with the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.


The increasing volume of outbound investment may also have indirectly affected the amount of money invested in U.S. debt, Wei said.

"U.S. debt has been a safe haven for capital amid the global economic crisis, but as we see growth come back on track, investors may pull out in favor of other investment channels," he said.
 

escobar

Brigadier
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


China's centrally administered state-owned enterprises plan to invest over 80 billion yuan (US$12.7 billion) in Tibet Autonomous Region during the 2011-2015 period,
according to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC).

As of the end of last year, central SOEs had invested 40 billion yuan in Tibet projects relating to electricity, water conservation, telecommunication, energy, mining and tourism, with project contracts in the region valued at more than 24 billion yuan.

SASAC has urged these enterprises to step up support for the region and play a bigger role in facilitating its development, as well as work to preserve the region's environment in the process.

China's centrally administered SOEs reported net profits of 917.33 billion yuan in 2011, up 6.4 percent year-on-year, according to official data.
 

escobar

Brigadier
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



China will promptly formulate a master plan for reforming the income distribution system in a bid to narrow the widening income gap, according to a government work report distributed to the media Monday morning.

The government will strive to raise the proportion of individual income in national income, and raise the proportion of remuneration in the primary distribution, says the report to be delivered by Premier Wen Jiabao in the opening meeting of the Fifth Session of the National People's Congress, China's parliament.

"We will quickly reverse the trend of a widening income gap
," reads the report.

The government will take further steps to adjust taxes for high-income groups, strictly standardize supervision of pay and bonuses for senior management in state-owned enterprises and financial institutions, it says.

The proportion of middle-income groups will be expanded, and the incomes of low-income groups will be raised, the report says.
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
I don't think the US is going with the QE-3 anytime soon because the Obama administration had learned that the last two didn't work out quite well. It's an interesting article never the less, thanks for posting.

Yup,with oil at over $100 per barrel & US gas prices at/near record, Bernanke will have to be very stupid, or brave, to do QE3.
 

Norfolk

Junior Member
VIP Professional
Ya start a thread, go away for a few years, and well...:coffee:

Good catch, escobar.;)

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, By Zhou Xin and Kevin Yao, Reuters, 5 May, 2012:

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao cut his nation's 2012 growth target to an eight-year low of 7.5 percent and made boosting consumer demand the year's first priority as Beijing looks to wean the economy off its reliance on external demand and foreign capital.

More at the link.

Not exactly good news, but then half a world away some people'd kill (so to speak) to have this kind of bad news...
 

escobar

Brigadier
Ya start a thread, go away for a few years, and well...:coffee:

Good catch, escobar.;)

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, By Zhou Xin and Kevin Yao, Reuters, 5 May, 2012:



More at the link.

Not exactly good news, but then half a world away some people'd kill (so to speak) to have this kind of bad news...

welcome back :p

---------- Post added at 04:32 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:27 AM ----------

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Nigeria's central bank has added the equivalent of $500 million in Chinese yuan to its reserves and plans to buy seven times that amount, in a shift that underscores booming commerce between China and the African continent.

The bank will gradually increase its yuan holdings to 10% of its $35 billion in reserves
, Central Bank of Nigeria Gov. Sanusi Lamido Sanusi said in an interview.

Over the past six months Nigeria has converted 1.4% of its reserves to Chinese currency, largely by selling euros and buying yuan on offshore markets in Hong Kong, Mr. Sanusi said. He said he plans to increase that amount by selling much of the bank's euro holdings and buying more yuan directly from the People's Bank of China.

Nigeria is courting China as a customer for its vast oil reserves, and Beijing recently invested in Nigeria-based rice processing plants and airport development projects
, Mr. Sanusi said.

"As those kind of relationships improve, holding yuan would be very important," Mr. Sanusi said. He added that U.S. dollars would continue to make up the bulk of the bank's reserves.

Other African countries aren't likely to follow Nigeria's lead until China's currency—still not freely convertible—is more readily available on the open market, economists say.

"It is likely that we will see interest from the oil producers with larger external reserves first," said Razia Khan, head of Africa research for Standard Chartered Bank in London. "I am guessing it is a trend that will become far more important than it is currently, especially if China takes steps towards currency convertibility as has been hinted by 2015."

Ms. Khan said South Africa might also consider converting a portion of its reserves to yuan because China is it's largest single-nation trade partner.

Daniel Mminele, a deputy governor of South Africa's reserve bank, said the bank's reserves are dominated by dollars, euros and British pounds, and that the strategy is regularly adjusted according to criteria including South Africa's trading patterns.

"Any such review would include the role to be played by the Chinese yuan, given the growing trade links between South Africa and China," Mr. Mminele said.

Mr. Sanusi, Nigeria's central bank governor, said trade in yuan through the Hong Kong market was already liquid enough to protect the bank's investment. As Nigeria's government embarks on an ambitious plan to slash fuel subsidies and revamp Nigeria's dilapidated power grid and roadways, Mr. Sanusi said he didn't want to wait to diversify the bank's holdings.

"At the moment you've got huge global imbalances, huge surpluses in Asia. It is reasonable that countries should look into the possibility of tapping into those markets," Mr. Sanusi said. "We cannot afford to delay the infrastructure investments that we're doing."
 

paintgun

Senior Member

"We will quickly reverse the trend of a widening income gap
," reads the report.

The government will take further steps to adjust taxes for high-income groups, strictly standardize supervision of pay and bonuses for senior management in state-owned enterprises and financial institutions, it says.

The proportion of middle-income groups will be expanded, and the incomes of low-income groups will be raised, the report says.

interesting, wonder what rich mainlanders (some of my distant relatives as well) who have profited from all these years have got to say about this

hope the government does not do anything too drastic

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, By Zhou Xin and Kevin Yao, Reuters, 5 May, 2012:

Not exactly good news, but then half a world away some people'd kill (so to speak) to have this kind of bad news...

good news actually, the decision makers do acknowledge that relentless growth spur will eventually be bad for economic and political landscape in China, and decide to slow it down instead of blindingly chasing growth, which sounds like they do listen to their economic/technical team

just like gym goers know they need some ripping after bulking up :p
 
Top