Chinese Economics Thread

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Revenues of China's software and information technology (IT) service industry rose 32.4 percent year-on-year to 1.84 trillion yuan (292.23 billion U.S. dollars) in 2011, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said.

The rise was 4.4 percentage points higher than the industry's average growth rate during the 2006-2010 period, according to an MIIT report released at an ongoing forum held in the northeastern province of Heilongjiang.

The country's software exports increased 18.5 percent from a year earlier to 30.4 billion U.S. dollars last year, the report said.

The industrial scale of the country's software and information service outsourcing sector surged 39.5 percent from the pervious year to hit 383.5 billion yuan (60.9 billion U.S. dollars) in 2011, with software outsourcing exports up by 40.3 percent to 5.9 billion U.S. dollars, the report said.

The report attributed the expanding industrial scale to the economy's steady growth as well as rising demands from domestic and global markets.

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Beijing is to build a new airport, which is likely to be the world's largest in terms of passenger traffic, to the southeast of the city, China National Radio reports.

The new airport, yet to be named, is to be located on the border between Beijing and Langfang, a city in north China's Hebei province which surrounds Beijing. It will be approximately 45 kilometers from Beijing's city center; about an hour's drive.

The airport is designed to be a key international airport. It will have nine runways and is expected to direct more than 130 million passengers and 5,500,000 tones of cargo annually, replacing the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Atlanta, Georgia, the United States, to become the busiest in the world.

The new airport will also act as a hub, connecting highways, transportation roads and roads in rural areas together.

This will be the third civil airport in Beijing, following the Nanyuan Airport and the Beijing International Airport, which houses Terminal three, the largest building in the world.

When put into use, the new airport will serve Beijing, as well as the nearby Tianjin municipality and Hebei province.
 

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China's natural gas imports rose 66.7 percent year-on-year to hit 3.6 billion cubic meters in January, the country's top economic planner said.

The rapid increase has further pushed up the share of imported natural gas in the country's natural gas consumption, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on its website.

The apparent consumption of natural gas surged 20.1 percent from a year earlier to 13.7 billion cubic meters in January. The growth pace slows from last year's peak period, but still stands at high levels, the NDRC said.

The rise in consumption was mainly caused by high power demands for winter heating and chemical fertilizer production, said the NDRC.

Meanwhile, the natural gas output increased by 2.4 percent year-on-year to 9.8 billion cubic meters in January, the NDRC said.

Natural gas reserves fell in January due to the lower-than-expected natural gas consumption in north China, especially in Beijing, and an increased output by the Shaanxi-to-Beijing natural gas pipelines.

The gas storage group of Dagang, a reserve designed to meet the high winter heating demand in north China, stocked 410 million cubic meters of natural gas in January, down by 200 million cubic meters from a year earlier. The reserve was owned by the country's oil giant PetroChina.

Shaanxi-to-Beijing natural gas pipelines consist of three pipelines. The latest line came on stream in January 2011, following the launch of the first line in October 1997 and the second in July 2005.

China's natural gas imports rose to 17 billion cubic meters in 2010, accounting for 16 percent of the country's total consumption, official data showed.

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China's crude oil output slid 2.3 percent year-on-year in January to 17.08 million tonnes
as the New Year holiday reduced workdays, the country's top economic planner said.

The country's imports of crude oil reached 22.85 million tonnes last month, nearly flat compared with that of last year, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on its website.

The country produced 22.18 million tonnes of refined oil, up 4 percent from one year ago. Its apparent consumption of refined oil hit 19.44 million tonnes, with the averaged daily consumption in January down 5.7 percent from the previous month.

The figures were affected by an earlier Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, which fell in January this year and cut four workdays off the month compared with January of 2011, according to the NDRC. The Lunar New Year holiday fell in February in 2011.
 

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China's central bank may cut the interest rate in the second and third quarters this year, as the economies in the EU and US slow down further while domestic inflation pressure gradually eases, economists said on Saturday.

According to research co-sponsored by Xiamen University and the National University of Singapore, China's monetary policy is very likely to see an adjustment in the first half of 2012.

"We expect the People's Bank of China to cut the interest rate twice in the second and third quarters, by 25 basis points each time," said Chen Kang, professor of economics at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

After those two cuts, China's benchmark interest rate will drop from the current 6.56 percent to 6.06 percent.

The central bank said on Feb 18 that it will cut the reserve requirement ratio, or the proportion of money that lenders must set aside as reserve, by 50 basis points effective Feb 24. It followed a cut in the reserve requirement in December by 50 basis points, which was the first since December 2008.

"As the external demand weakens, the renminbi further appreciates and the domestic economy slows down, we believe the inflation pressure will gradually ease this year," said Li Wenfu, a professor with Xiamen University.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the Consumer Price Index, a main gauge of inflation, stood at 4.5 percent year-on-year in January. It rose 5.4 percent in 2011 from a year earlier, the bureau said.

"Based on our research, China's CPI will fall to 3.33 percent in 2012, down 2.18 percentage points from 2011, which provides leeway for the central bank to loosen its monetary policy as the economy further slows down," Li added.

Zhang Ping, deputy head of the economic research institution of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the CPI will fall further in February, probably below 3.5 percent.

"With a meaningful rebound for domestic demand not in sight, external weakness is starting to bite, adding more downside risks to growth," said Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China and the co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC, urging the central bank to further loosen its policies after it cut the RRR for banks for the first time this year.

Due to last year's surging inflation, China's real interest rates have been negative for the past 23 months. China's CPI reached a 37-month high of 6.5 percent in July 2011.

"Given China's negative real interest rate, there should be a cut in the loan interest rate but no more in the deposit interest rate," said Zhang Shuguang, an economist with the Unirule Institute of Economics.
 

Equation

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Revenues of China's software and information technology (IT) service industry rose 32.4 percent year-on-year to 1.84 trillion yuan (292.23 billion U.S. dollars) in 2011, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said.

The rise was 4.4 percentage points higher than the industry's average growth rate during the 2006-2010 period, according to an MIIT report released at an ongoing forum held in the northeastern province of Heilongjiang.

The country's software exports increased 18.5 percent from a year earlier to 30.4 billion U.S. dollars last year, the report said.

The industrial scale of the country's software and information service outsourcing sector surged 39.5 percent from the pervious year to hit 383.5 billion yuan (60.9 billion U.S. dollars) in 2011, with software outsourcing exports up by 40.3 percent to 5.9 billion U.S. dollars, the report said.

The report attributed the expanding industrial scale to the economy's steady growth as well as rising demands from domestic and global markets.

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Beijing is to build a new airport, which is likely to be the world's largest in terms of passenger traffic, to the southeast of the city, China National Radio reports.

The new airport, yet to be named, is to be located on the border between Beijing and Langfang, a city in north China's Hebei province which surrounds Beijing. It will be approximately 45 kilometers from Beijing's city center; about an hour's drive.

The airport is designed to be a key international airport. It will have nine runways and is expected to direct more than 130 million passengers and 5,500,000 tones of cargo annually, replacing the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Atlanta, Georgia, the United States, to become the busiest in the world.

The new airport will also act as a hub, connecting highways, transportation roads and roads in rural areas together.

This will be the third civil airport in Beijing, following the Nanyuan Airport and the Beijing International Airport, which houses Terminal three, the largest building in the world.

When put into use, the new airport will serve Beijing, as well as the nearby Tianjin municipality and Hebei province.


I've never been to Atlanta before, but I remembered my flight stopped over at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Atlanta, Georgia on my way to Boston. It is busy and pact from every single terminal. It has one of the most diverse restaurants and shops I've seen in any American airports so far. Denver International airport perhaps has the most beautiful interior space of all in the US IMO.
 

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Chairman Mao Zedong’s Red Flag limousine is making a comeback after a $280 million overhaul, seeking to regain its standing as the ride of Chinese leaders from Volkswagen AG’s Audi.

China FAW Group Corp., which built the first Hongqi -- as the brand is known in Chinese -- for Mao in 1958, received state approval this month to make the C131, reviving the Red Flag’s production after it was discontinued in 2010. The sedan will be the official car for minister-level officials,
according to the Communist Party’s official People’s Daily website.

The endorsement may give FAW an edge in selling cars to the government, which researcher Ipsos estimates spends about $16 billion a year as China’s biggest buyer of vehicles. That’s a threat to Audi, which counts China as its biggest market. Its sedans account for an estimated 30 percent of the fleet used by public servants.

“The move is an indication that the government supports the homegrown auto industry,” said Klaus Paur, Shanghai-based head of auto research at Ipsos. “Audi has a long history as provider of government cars. Therefore, a substantial reduction of foreign brand purchases would impact Audi the most.”

China’s first carmaker plans to invest 1.98 billion yuan ($280 million) on the Red Flag and produce 30,000 C131s next year, according to the closely held carmaker. The Hongqi is part of ambitions by FAW -- which makes vehicles with General Motors Co., VW and Toyota Motor Corp. -- to double its own-brand vehicle sales to more than 2 million units by 2015.

Following Mao

Chinese leaders followed the late Mao in embracing the Red Flag. President Hu Jintao stood in an open-topped Hongqi parade car during China’s National Day celebrations, as did Jiang Zemin and the late Deng Xiaoping. U.S. President Richard Nixon rode in one during his 1972 trip to China.

Then the global oil shocks hit and FAW was ordered in 1981 to stop producing Red Flag sedans because of its high fuel consumption. Attempts to revive the brand -- including buying a platform from Nissan Motor Co. in 1982 and revamping the vehicle three times from 1987 to 1990 -- failed, leading FAW to discontinue production two years ago.

The last model, based on a Toyota platform, sold from 334,800 yuan, enough to buy a Mercedes C-class sedan or an Audi Q5 sport-utility vehicle, according to Sina.com prices.

‘Crowded’ Market


China’s elite defected toward foreign brands as FAW was unable to deliver cars that could compete in fuel efficiency, reliability and styling, said Zhang Xin, a Beijing-based analyst at Guotai Securities. That hasn’t changed, he said.

“It will be tough for FAW to revamp the brand now given that the market is already way too crowded,” said Zhang. “They may have to sacrifice profit for sales.”

The government owns FAW and its purchases may help turn around the iconic brand, the People’s Daily reported this month.

“Red Flag still has a reputation in China, mostly the one of the traditional limousines of the leaders,” said Erik van Ingen Schenau, a car historian and author of “Hongqi: A History of the Limousine.” “Without selling to the state, the C131 won’t be a success.”

Under current rules, ministers can use domestic or foreign cars as long as they have engines no bigger than 2.5 liters and cost no more than 380,000 yuan, while vice ministers are restricted to 280,000 yuan. Cars can be replaced every eight years.

Home Advantage


Count Dong Yang, deputy head of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, among those saying the government should help its own.

“State leaders in many countries ride their home-brand vehicles and I think our own officials should do so as well,” said Dong, who’s involved in drafting the government vehicle procurement list that’s in the final approval stage.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology last week issued a preliminary list of this year's official-vehicle purchases, which excluded all foreign brands.

Chinese government officials didn’t respond to faxed queries. Liu Lina, a spokeswoman with FAW Group’s publicly traded unit, declined to comment on the report or provide details of the C131.

Foreign carmakers stand to lose the most from a Red Flag revival. Overseas brands accounted for about 80 percent of the official pool, according to Zhang at Guotai Junan. In the broader market, they account for 7 of every 10 cars sold in the country, which overtook the U.S. in 2009 to become the world’s largest vehicle market, according to data from CAAM.

‘Small Part’


Audi said it would be able to overcome any loss in government sales. Direct sales to the government represent only a “small part” of Audi’s business in China because more than 90 percent of its customers are private buyers and the rest is dominated by fleet sales to companies, said Martin Kuehl, a Beijing-based spokesman for the automaker.

The automaker remains “a very attractive partner for the customers in China, including the administration,” he said. About half of Volkswagen’s earnings come from China, according to estimates by Max Warburton at Sanford C. Bernstein in London.

Still, the Ministry of Supervision estimates the state operated a fleet of at least 5.2 million vehicles as of November 2007 -- more than the total number of cars sold in Japan last year. Ministries and related agencies spent about 100 billion yuan on official cars a year, according to Paur at Ipsos.

FAW isn’t the only Chinese automaker reviving brands.

SAIC Motor Corp., the country’s biggest automaker, has included the Shanghai brand in its product plans, the company said in an e-mailed response, without giving additional details. Generally used for lower-ranked bureaucrats who didn’t merit a Red Flag, production of the brand was suspended in 1991 after SAIC started making Santana cars with Volkswagen.

In the end, nostalgia and government support for homegrown brands can only do so much, said Cao He, an analyst with China Minzu Securities Co. in Beijing.

“The bottom line is that the Red Flag and other home- designed cars need to be good enough,” Cao said.
 

A.Man

Major
China’s Billionaire Congress Makes Capitol Hill Look Poor

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The richest 70 members of China’s legislature added more to their wealth last year than the combined net worth of all 535 members of the U.S. Congress, the president and his Cabinet, and the nine Supreme Court justices.

The net worth of the 70 richest delegates in China’s National People’s Congress, which opens its annual session on March 5, rose to 565.8 billion yuan ($89.8 billion) in 2011, a gain of $11.5 billion from 2010, according to figures from the Hurun Report, which tracks the country’s wealthy. That compares to the $7.5 billion net worth of all 660 top officials in the three branches of the U.S. government.

The income gain by NPC members reflects the imbalances in economic growth in China, where per capita annual income in 2010 was $2,425, less than in Belarus and a fraction of the $37,527 in the U.S. The disparity points to the challenges that China’s new generation of leaders, to be named this year, faces in countering a rise in social unrest fueled by illegal land grabs and corruption.

“It is extraordinary to see this degree of a marriage of wealth and politics,” said Kenneth Lieberthal, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at Washington’s Brookings Institution. “It certainly lends vivid texture to the widespread complaints in China about an extreme inequality of wealth in the country now.”

Most Powerful

The National People’s Congress, whose annual meeting will run for a week and a half, is legally the highest governmental body in China. While the legislature, with about 3,000 members, is often derided as a rubberstamp parliament, its members are some of China’s most powerful politicians and executives, wielding power in their home provinces and weighing in on proposals such as whether to impose a nationwide property tax.

“The NPC is not exactly what you would call a center of power, but being on it certainly gets you deeply engaged in the political system,” Lieberthal said.

Hurun, a Shanghai-based publisher of magazines targeted at the Chinese luxury consumer, uses publicly available information such as corporate filings to compile its annual list of the richest people in China. It then cross-checks that data with the government’s list of NPC members.

Zong Qinghou, chairman of beverage-maker Hangzhou Wahaha Group (HWGZ) and China’s second-richest person, with a family fortune of 68 billion yuan, is a member. So is Wu Yajun, chairwoman of Beijing-based Longfor Properties (LHREZ) Co. She has family wealth of 42 billion yuan, according to the Hurun Report.

Jiang’s Pushing

Former President Jiang Zemin pushed for the inclusion of wealthy private entrepreneurs into the Communist Party a decade ago. Now they have regular access to top party leaders who are also NPC members.

The third-richest person in the NPC, auto-parts magnate Lu Guanqiu, traveled with Vice President Xi Jinping to the U.S. during his official visit this month, attending a meeting with Vice President Joseph Biden and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner in Washington on Feb. 14.

“The rich in China have strong incentive to become ‘within system’ due to the relative weakness in the rule of law and of property rights,” Victor Shih, a professor at Evanston, Illinois-based Northwestern University who studies Chinese politics and finance, wrote in an e-mail. Being a member of the NPC “means that one’s commercial or political rival cannot easily throw one in jail or confiscate one’s property.”

Richest Woman

Wu, who is China’s richest woman, doesn’t give media interviews, her spokeswoman said. Lu wasn’t available for an interview, his spokesman said. Zong wouldn’t comment on the makeup of the NPC because that’s a matter determined by the central government, Wahaha spokesman Shan Qining said in a phone interview.

Many of the NPC’s richest members, including Longfor’s Wu, are executives in real estate, a sector that has spurred protests and contributed to the rising wealth gap between city dwellers and farmers.

A land grab by a property developer in Wukan, a fishing town in southern China’s Guangdong province, sparked protests in December that resulted in the expulsion of its Communist Party leaders. Premier Wen Jiabao has pledged to crack down on such land grabs and work to ease wealth disparities.

China’s top political leaders, including President Hu Jintao and Wen, don’t disclose their personal finances or those of their families.

Chinese private executives such as Zong and Lu have built their fortunes on the back of economic growth that has averaged 10.1 percent in the last 30 years. The U.S. economy expanded by 1.6 percent in the last three months of 2011.

Out Of Poverty

Regular Chinese have also benefited from the growth of China’s economy, which surpassed Japan as the world’s second biggest in 2010. Since introducing free-market policies, China has lifted 300 million of its 1.3 billion citizens out of poverty, according to the United Nations.

Annual growth of per capita GDP in China was 9.8 percent at the end of 2010. Per capita GDP has more than doubled since 2000, according to the World Bank.

The wealth gap between legislatures holds with statistically comparable samples. The richest 2 percent of the NPC -- 60 people -- had an average wealth of $1.44 billion per person. The richest 2 percent of Congress -- 11 members -- had an average wealth of $323 million.

The U.S. figures come from a downloadable database on the website of the Washington-based Center for Responsive Politics. The U.S. figures are inflated because the database includes members of Congress who were retired or defeated in the 2010 elections as well as their replacements.

Issa’s Wealth

The wealth of members of Congress did increase at a higher rate than that of their Chinese peers in the most recent disclosures as U.S. equity markets outperformed China’s. The average wealth of the richest 2 percent of Congress rose 22 percent in 2010 from 2009. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index rose 12.8 percent in 2010.

The wealth of the top 2 percent of NPC delegates rose 13 percent in the 2011 Hurun list following a 14.3 percent fall in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index in 2010 and a further 21.7 percent drop last year. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 20 percent in 2011 and the Shenzhen Composite fell 33 percent in the same period.

The wealthiest member of the U.S. Congress is Representative Darrell Issa, the California Republican who had a maximum wealth of $700.9 million in 2010, according to the center. If he were in China’s NPC, he would be ranked 40th. Per capita income in China is about one-sixth the U.S. level when adjusted for differences in purchasing power.

‘Cozy Relationship’

Financial disclosure forms ask lawmakers and other top U.S. officials to list the value of their individual assets in ranges, such as $1,001 to $15,000 or $1,000,001 to $5,000,000. Bloomberg News used the maximum range of wealth on the U.S. disclosures to compare with the Chinese NPC.

Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman and chief researcher for the Hurun Report, estimates that for every Chinese billionaire the company discovers for its list, there is another one it misses, meaning the gap between the wealth of China’s NPC and the U.S. Congress may be greater still.

“The prevalence of billionaires in the NPC shows the cozy relationship between the wealthy and the Communist Party,” said Bruce Jacobs, a professor of Asian languages and studies at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. “In all levels of the system there seem to be local officials in cahoots with entrepreneurs, enriching themselves, and this has led to a lot of the demonstrations.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Forsythe in Beijing at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Peter Hirschberg at [email protected]
 

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Sino-German joint venture Beijing-Benz Automotive Co Ltd plans a five-fold hike in production capacity with more new models to meet growing demand in China's luxury car market.

The tie-up between Daimler AG and Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Corp plans to raise production capacity to as high as 420,000 units by 2015 from 80,000 last year, according to Fu Qian, the joint venture's executive vice-president for sales and marketing.

Fu said the company will introduce one new Mercedes-Benz model every year until 2015.

The joint venture will then have seven models including some with Mercedes front-wheel drive architecture, he added.

The venture now assembles Mercedes E-Class and C-Class sedans as well as the GLK mid-sized SUV. The GLK will hit the market in the first half of this year, going head-to-head with the Audi Q5.

Last year, the company sold 93,000 E-Class and C-Class cars, a surge of 86 percent from 2010. The figure is higher than its total 2011 target of 80,000 units.

Sources from the joint venture said it expects to sell 120,000 cars this year.

Beijing-Benz is also building an engine plant in the capital city to produce three types of engines - two four-cylinders and one six-cylinder.

The engine plant scheduled to begin operations in the middle of next year will have the capacity to make up to 250,000 engines in its first phase, which will be raised to 500,000 units in 2015.

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The year 1978 was historic for China as it began opening up to the outside world. It was also in that year when Caterpillar, the world's largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, opened its first office in the Chinese capital Beijing.

But even those people, who made this brave and wise decision for Caterpillar, couldn't have imagined that 30 year later China would boast the world's biggest market for machinery equipment, or that China would become Caterpillar's second most important market, only after its home country, the United States.


Group President Richard Lavin, who joined Caterpillar in 1984, told Xinhua in a recent interview in Hong Kong that the reason Caterpillar entered in 1978 was because they had recognized China would be a very significant market.

Before that, in 1975, Caterpillar had made its first sale of 38 pipe layers to China through Hong Kong companies. It was among the first batch of U.S. manufacturers to enter the Chinese mainland market.

And today, the Chinese market is important simply because of its size. If Caterpillar wants to be the global industry leader in infrastructure equipment, it has to be leader in China, Lavin said.

"It's the size of the market that prompts us to make the level of investment we made in China over the past five years and we plan to make over the next five years."

He declined to disclose the proportion of Caterpillar's revenue in China to its global revenue and the market share of its major products in China.

"But I can tell you that China represents a growing percentage of Caterpillar's global sales revenue.... We've dramatically increased our total machine manufacturing capacity inside China over the past five years. And we plan to more than double our capacity over the next five years."

Lavin said Caterpillar's position in China is much stronger now than it was five or six years ago. So far, Caterpillar has invested a total of two billion U.S. dollars in China.

Currently, Caterpillar has 17 manufacturing facilities and 9 new facilities under construction in China, most of which will be put into operation soon. It also has four R&D centers and three logistics and parts centers. In total, the American company employs more than 10,000 people across China.

In the last three decades, thanks to industrialization and urbanization, China has emerged into the world's largest market for machinery equipment. The nation's 12th Five-Year Program (2011- 2015) predicted that the industry will continue to grow steadily in the next few years.

Despite sluggish global economy, Caterpillar's total revenue in 2011 soared 41 percent year on year to more than 60 billion U.S. dollars, the highest increase since 1947. Last year's profits jumped 83 percent from a year earlier to nearly 5 billion U.S. dollars. In 2011, Asia-Pacific market generated 15 billion U.S. dollars in revenue, accounting for nearly one quarter of Caterpillar's global revenue.

In the last quarter of 2011, Caterpillar's global revenue hit record high of 17.2 billion U.S. dollars, up 35 percent from a year earlier. Of it, revenue in Asia Pacific market jumped 50 percent, and China accounted for a quarter of Asia Pacific's total sales.

Over the years, Caterpillar has become more focused on China. In 2005, it listed the Chinese market as one of the seven factors to achieve the company's vision for 2020. One year later, under the leadership of Lavin, Caterpillar moved its Asia Pacific headquarters from the Japanese capital Tokyo to Beijing.

In early January of 2011, Lavin himself relocated his office from the headquarters in Peoria of Illinois to Hong Kong, which illustrated Caterpillar's attitude towards China and India.

Caterpillar also drew wide attention by issuing two batches of renminbi-denominated bonds in Hong Kong -- one in November of 2010 worth 1 billion yuan (159 million U.S. dollars) and the other in July of 2011 worth 2.3 billion yuan (365 million U.S. dollars).

It is the second multinational to issue renminbi bonds, dubbed "dim sum" bonds in Hong Kong, after McDonald's.

"They've been very good issues for us. It has been a very constructive part of total financing plan. And going forward, as we look at financing needs in China, those bond issues will be alternatives," Lavin said.

"The sole objective for us issuing RMB-denominated bonds was to access a good competitive source of funding our chain operations," he said, when asked on comments saying that such bond issuances were more of a political gesture, aiming to please the Chinese government.

Lavin said he was very bullish on China, and believed the Chinese economy was going to continue growing in a very robust rate over the next 5 years. And the machinery equipment industry would also grow at a very robust way over the next 5 years.

For 2012, he expected the Chinese economy to expand by about 8. 5 percent, and the machinery equipment industry to grow by 10 percent from 2011.

China's growth is good news for global economy and means there are opportunities for other countries, he said. For instance, increasing infrastructure development means that commodity demand around the world will continue to be strong, which is good not only for the economies that have mining industry, but also for companies like Caterpillar who sell equipment.

Lavin also said Caterpillar's success in China is really the product of focusing on the needs of the customers.

"We invest a lot of time and effort in understanding exactly what the customers need and understanding how we can serve those needs, whether it's through machinery, engines, components, part support and part availability," he added.
 

montyp165

Senior Member
The Bloomberg article seems iffy regarding the 2010 per capita GDP for the PRC, seeing how even the lowest nominal per capita GDP values for 2010 listed by wiki's sources show a value of $4400.
 

escobar

Brigadier
The Bloomberg article seems iffy regarding the 2010 per capita GDP for the PRC, seeing how even the lowest nominal per capita GDP values for 2010 listed by wiki's sources show a value of $4400.

the 2011 per capita GDP reach US$5,449.71

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Mao Lianying makes 15,000 yuan a month pre-tax as a Beijing department store accounting manager, but doesn't consider herself a high wage earner.

"Prices keep rising but I haven't had a pay rise for at least two years,", says Mao. "My friends and colleagues all feel the inflation pressure."

Even her boss, who makes 500,000 yuan a year, does not feel like a rich man. "He works like a horse to save for his son's education," Mao says.

The accounting manager is perplexed over recent reports that Beijing's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has reached the level of some wealthy nations. "Why do we always have to think twice before we foot the bill?" Mao wonders.

Last year, Beijing's per capita GDP stood at 80,394 yuan (12,447 U.S. dollars), which the municipal statistical bureau said was close to the levels of developed countries.The Chinese capital is now a member of the World Bank's "high-income" economies, a category for countries with per capita gross national income (GNI) over 12,276 U.S. dollars.


"Despite the slight differences in GNI and GDP calculations, Beijing has met the World Bank's criteria for a high-income economy," according to Yu Xiuqin, deputy chief of Beijing's statistical bureau.

Beijingers' disposable income, however, falls far behind its GDP volume.

Last year, Beijing's urban residents reported 32,903 yuan in per capita disposable income, about 40 percent of the per capita GDP.

"The percentage is apparently too low -- at least 10 percent lower than many developed countries," says Wang Jianmao, professor of economics at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai.

Despite last year's personal income tax cut that reduced China's total number of taxpayers by 60 million, the country's annual tax revenue grew by 22.6 percent in 2011, surpassing its GDP growth by 9.2 percent.

Wang explains China's tax revenue growth has topped GDP growth for 15 consecutive years since 1997, saying "Corporate and personal income taxes, in particular, grew much faster than GDP."

Many Beijingers complain they are "underpaid," given low income levels and an inadequate social security system, according to a report on Beijing's social and economic indices of 2011, published on the website of the Capital University of Economics and Business.


The report found Beijingers' "happiness index" -- which measures the quality of life and personal contentment rather than economic growth -- was 72.28 last year, slightly lower than 2010. The paper blamed comparatively low income as one of the major reasons for the decline.

Meanwhile, another report on Chinese women's quality of life listed price hikes, unaffordable homes and low income as the three major issues of concern for urban women.

"Income level is undoubtedly an important criteria to judge a person's quality of life, though there are many other means to evaluate one's happiness," says Wang Tianlong, an associate researcher with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

Wang sees China's attempts to bolster economic development as essential in improving people's livelihoods. "But we do need to improve the public sectors, provide better medical services and education, and enable different social groups to share in the fruits of the overall economic growth," the researcher suggests.

The gaps between Beijing's bulging GDP volume and that of the underdeveloped central and western regions, and between rich and poor individuals, are also noteworthy, adds Wang.

Instead of being blindfolded by Beijing's growth rate, China should take such gaps and imbalances into account while mapping out future growth patterns, he says.
 

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The World Bank on Monday urged China to revamp its financial system in a decisive, comprehensive and coordinated manner to counter risks facing the nation over the next 20 years.

Reforms should follow a properly sequenced roadmap, and priority should be given to liberalizing interest rates according to market principles, the bank said in a joint report with the Development Research Center of the State Council, or China's cabinet.

"Central to the report's findings is the need for China to modernize its domestic financial base and move to a public financial system - at all levels of government - that's transparent and accountable, overseen by fewer but stronger institutions, to help fund a changing economic, environmental and social agenda," said Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank.

"The reform agenda, with a stronger and more flexible financial sector, the promotion of innovation and green growth as drivers of development, can lead to opportunities for creating new jobs and additional productivity within China as well as new opportunities for foreign firms."

Reforms should include commercializing the banking system, gradually removing interest rate controls, deepening the capital market and further developing strong, independent regulatory bodies to support the integration of China's financial sector with the global financial system,
the report said.

Guo Tianyong, director of the Banking Research Center at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said the demand for more liberalized interest rates and a market-based financial system was urgent.

"The current rules have generated great risks, as they led to abnormal phenomena such as excessively high profits in the banking sector, an outflow of deposits from lenders and a surge in private financing across the country," Guo said.

He said that as long as some preparatory work, such as establishing a deposit insurance system, is carried out, interest rate reform can start at any time.

Media reports said earlier this month that the People's Bank of China, the central bank, had finished drafting deposit insurance rules and would announce the establishment of the system before phasing in detailed policies.

Lu Zhengwei, the chief economist at the Industrial Bank Co Ltd, said Chinese lenders haven't yet prepared for liberalized interest rates, which are expected to widen performance gaps among banks and push some weak players to the edge of failure.

"It may not be a good time for China to loosen the reins, because at present the overall demand for capital is still extremely high while growth in deposits lags the GDP growth rate, which means once interest rates are liberalized, the risks lenders face will be huge," said Sun Maohui, a professor of finance at Shanghai Normal University.

Having a market-based financial system is a necessity for China if it wants to float the yuan globally, because free flows of foreign capital must be based on the precondition of a free and fair financial market for both domestic and foreign players, said Chen Daofu, policy research chief of the Financial Research Institute at the Development Research Center.

Acceptance of the yuan as a major global reserve currency will depend on the pace and success of financial sector reforms and the opening of China's external capital accounts, said the World Bank.

China's growing weight in world trade, the size of its economy and its role as the world's largest creditor have made the internationalization of the yuan "inevitable", it said.

The report makes the case for the government to redefine its role - to focus more on systems, rules and laws - to boost efficient production, promote competition and reduce risks.


The bank also recommends redefining the roles of State-owned enterprises and breaking up monopolies in certain industries, diversifying ownership, lowering entry barriers to private firms, and easing access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises
 
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