Chinese Economics Thread

[Tyler]

Much of the "growth" is money printing and does not apply to the real economy.

They are now tapering and bitcoin is crumbling.

 

[BoraTas]

Much of the "growth" is money printing and does not apply to the real economy.

Despite the 4% contraction in 2020 and printing $10 trillions the US couldn't outgrew China in 2021. Do you remember all those triumphalist articles from February 2021? We all knew they were fairytales.

 

[gelgoog]

The fact Biden cannot approve his infrastructure plan even while he still has a majority is telling. Trump's infrastructure plan was also rejected if you would remember. The US political class seems to have totally lost the ball and believe their own kool aid. i.e. that government is evil and government spending (unless when used for the US military machine) is evil.

So all the money printing will be used in the best case to pay the COVID-19 stay at home people or in the worst case to further inflate US property prices and capital assets like stocks or cause inflation on actual goods. Resulting in no material benefit for US society or industry.

Compare this with China which is focused on fighting the monopolies which were creeping up and is focusing the creative forces in their economic sector to tackle the issues of how to insulate the Chinese economy from external shocks. With things like investments into the semiconductor sector (to reduce US linked import dependency) and electric cars (to reduce dependency on oil imports).

 

[gelgoog]

He had to cut it and it remains to be seen how much will be actually built. If the California HSR is any indication...

 

[victoon]

"In the 1930s, Germany was going to dominate Europe, if not the world. In the 1960s and the 1980s, the Soviet Union – which had already stolen a march on the US in space technology – and later Japan, which was the rising economic force on the planet, would within 10 to 20 years overtake America to become the dominant economic and technological power."

"Yet, China’s growth spurt is now over, and the huge disparity in GDP growth has been eliminated. In the last few quarters, China’s GDP has been growing at half the rate of the US. Although that discrepancy is probably unsustainable, America’s estimated $7tn GDP margin over China in 2021 means that comparable rates of GDP growth in the future will sustain and even widen the margin. A Japanese thinktank has recently extended the date when it expects China to overtake the US, from 2029 to 2033. Deferrals like this are now a feature, and there will be more."

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I normally don't even read articles of this level. but ok, it's late and I am bored. it doesn't even warrant a rebuttal. But just for fun, the guy is a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre!!! A China expert. and yet he would make a mistake in an article on the economies like this: "This article was amended on 29 December 2021 because an earlier version cited “America’s $9tn GDP margin over China”. In fact the figure is estimated to be $7tn."

of course, just churning out papers. who cares about checking for errors?

 

[LesAdieux]

"In the 1930s, Germany was going to dominate Europe, if not the world. In the 1960s and the 1980s, the Soviet Union – which had already stolen a march on the US in space technology – and later Japan, which was the rising economic force on the planet, would within 10 to 20 years overtake America to become the dominant economic and technological power."

"Yet, China’s growth spurt is now over, and the huge disparity in GDP growth has been eliminated. In the last few quarters, China’s GDP has been growing at half the rate of the US. Although that discrepancy is probably unsustainable, America’s estimated $7tn GDP margin over China in 2021 means that comparable rates of GDP growth in the future will sustain and even widen the margin. A Japanese thinktank has recently extended the date when it expects China to overtake the US, from 2029 to 2033. Deferrals like this are now a feature, and there will be more."

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oh man, you keep quoting quacks and spin. The US GDP has grown 5.7% in the first three quarters; China's was 9.8%. China will release its GDP in 10 days time, the US one week after that. China's GDP for 2021 should be around 17.5~17.7 trillion, your 7 trillion gap won't live long.

 

[xypher]

oh man, you keep quoting quacks and spin. The US GDP has grown 5.7% in the first three quarters; China's was 9.8%. China will release its GDP in 10 days time, the US one week after that. China's GDP for 2021 should be around 17.5~17.7 trillion, your 7 trillion gap won't live long.

True, and let's not forget that the US GDP also contracted 3.5% last year while Chinese GDP actually grew.

 

[broadsword]

True, and let's not forget that the US GDP also contracted 3.5% last year while Chinese GDP actually grew.

Sleepy knew, but he/she just wanted to troll. Or maybe, too dumb to know.

 

[Suetham]

oh man, you keep quoting quacks and spin. The US GDP has grown 5.7% in the first three quarters; China's was 9.8%. China will release its GDP in 10 days time, the US one week after that. China's GDP for 2021 should be around 17.5~17.7 trillion, your 7 trillion gap won't live long.

The last time I viewed Chinese and American GDP in early December 2021, the US was at a GDP of $22.9 trillion, China was at a GDP of $16.8 trillion, that's not including Hong Kong, Macau and also does not include Taiwan, which would be a total of US$17.5 trillion. If we put China's GDP at $16.8 trillion, the difference is $6.1 trillion. If we put China's GDP at $17.5 trillion, the difference is $5.4 trillion. In no comparison is there the $7 trillion difference it claims to have.

 

[hullopilllw]

"In the 1930s, Germany was going to dominate Europe, if not the world. In the 1960s and the 1980s, the Soviet Union – which had already stolen a march on the US in space technology – and later Japan, which was the rising economic force on the planet, would within 10 to 20 years overtake America to become the dominant economic and technological power."

"Yet, China’s growth spurt is now over, and the huge disparity in GDP growth has been eliminated. In the last few quarters, China’s GDP has been growing at half the rate of the US. Although that discrepancy is probably unsustainable, America’s estimated $7tn GDP margin over China in 2021 means that comparable rates of GDP growth in the future will sustain and even widen the margin. A Japanese thinktank has recently extended the date when it expects China to overtake the US, from 2029 to 2033. Deferrals like this are now a feature, and there will be more."

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Superpowers compare manufacturing gdp.

Because in event of armed conflicts, your financial and service sectors can produce nothing of value.

Cheers.