Chinese Economics Thread

escobar

Brigadier
Chinese middle class expands


As they enter the Chinese market, multinational firms have not only changed the industrial landscape but also nurtured a growing Chinese middle class with new products in industries ranging from investment and banking to education, entertainment and grocery stores. As an Economics Professor with Peking University, Xiao Zhuoji pointed out back in 2001, the five to ten years after China’s accession to the WTO would give rise to a strengthened consumer segment, the middle class with growing disposable income.

The first impression of price-conscious Chinese consumers had toward WTO was its potential to bring lower prices to the Mainland. According to a study of China Prices Information Center on a comparison between the pricing of 64 products in the Mainland and overseas, by May 2000, there wee 42 types of important products priced higher than international average and 34% lower than international average. Many imported goods are now more similar to the international ones in terms of prices.

Shanghai, for example, has seen a rapid increase in the volume of imported fruit and vegetables. “There was limited number of imported goods in our supermarket five years ago,” says Sun Ming with Lianhua Supermarket Shanghai office. “Now we have around 4,000 imported items on our inventory list.”

The supermarket is only one of the many examples showing how the influx of imported goods helps shape a new consumer trend, more internationalized consumer techniques such as accepting more bank cards and membership cards. The introduction of Western holiday’s including Valentine’s Day, Christmas, Father’s Day and Mother’s Day has resulted in more commerce during these times of year.

Many luxury brands accelerate their expansion to China as soon as the country opened up its retail sector. A recent report released by TNS said that Chinese middle class has a growing interest in luxury items. Many of them believe luxuries are the symbols of success, position and good taste, with more than 50% of survey respondents saying they plan to buy “affordable” luxuries. At present, nearly all the luxuries manufacturers, foreign or local, are aiming at the high-end market, with millionaires and richest of the rich as their major customers, who make up less than 0.02% of the Chinese population.

While China consumed 11% of the world’s luxury items in 2004, it has become the second biggest auto consumer in the world. Many auto brands place more emphasis on smaller market segment to better improve their positions in the market. Foreign brands, including Volkswagen and Ford, as well as Chinese brands such as Geely and Chery have launched new models that are targeted specifically at the middle class after conducting extensive market research on Chinese consumer behavior and habits.

In the field of financial investing, many commercial banks and financial institutions, both foreign-funded and local, have established financial planning and wealth management entities to tap the growing Chinese wealth. The general manager of wealth management center at Everbright Bank Zhang Xuyang says in addition to one-to-one professional financial consulting services, the bank also provides advisory services on insurance, securities, foreign currency and fund to meet the growing demands for fund management.
 

Maggern

Junior Member
Interesting, I went to the IMF page with the stats. They predicted a Chinese economy of 6988 billion USD in 2011. The Chinese stats now released, however, converted into current USD prices show a Chinese economy of 7471 billion USD in 2011. That's almost IMF's estimate for 2012 (7744 bn USD).

Of course, the reason for underestimation is partially attributed to yuan appreciation, inflation etc as much as other reasons.
 
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Maggern

Junior Member
OK, let me be antagonistic and play with the stats here. If we accept the IMF's estimate for the US economy in 2011 as good, here is something fun:

China's economy in 2010 was at 5878 bn USD. The US economy that year was 14526 bn USD.

China's economy in 2011 was at 7471 bn USD. The US economy is estimated to be at 15064 bn USD.

Thus, in 2010 the US economy was 2,47 times as big as the Chinese one. In 2011, the ratio had shrunk to 2,02.

I'd say that's not just a considerable jump, but it's a dramatic jump. Of course this is based on preliminary numbers and estimates, but wow....whoever said China wouldn't come close to the US until 2040?
 
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paintgun

Senior Member
OK, let me be antagonistic and play with the stats here. If we accept the IMF's estimate for the US economy in 2011 as good, here is something fun:

China's economy in 2010 was at 5878 bn USD. The US economy that year was 14526 bn USD.

China's economy in 2011 was at 7471 bn USD. The US economy is estimated to be at 15064 bn USD.

Thus, in 2010 the US economy was 2,47 times as big as the Chinese one. In 2011, the ratio had shrunk to 2,02.

I'd say that's not just a considerable jump, but it's a dramatic jump. Of course this is based on preliminary numbers and estimates, but wow....whoever said China wouldn't come close to the US until 2040?

2,47 to 2,02 is interesting
2040, 2027, 2018, 2015 keep revising it people

i say China PPP overtake US in 2012
smileys-smoking-146777.gif
 

Quickie

Colonel
Interesting, I went to the IMF page with the stats. They predicted a Chinese economy of 6988 billion USD in 2011. The Chinese stats now released, however, converted into current USD prices show a Chinese economy of 7471 billion USD in 2011. That's almost IMF's estimate for 2012 (7744 bn USD).

Of course, the reason for underestimation is partially attributed to yuan appreciation, inflation etc as much as other reasons.

converted into current USD prices show a Chinese economy of 7471 billion USD in 2011. That's almost IMF's estimate for 2012 (7744 bn USD).

Current as in the average 2011 USD/Yuan rate?

Of course, the reason for underestimation is partially attributed to yuan appreciation, inflation etc as much as other reasons.

They probably took into account the above in their calculation but still it seems like they always underestimate those as well.
 

Maggern

Junior Member
Current as in the average 2011 USD/Yuan rate?



They probably took into account the above in their calculation but still it seems like they always underestimate those as well.

no, actually I just used today's rate. By using the 2011 average, it comes down to 7296bn USD. Which adjusts the ratio of US-China economy from 2,02 to 2,06.

EDIT:
Now that the Chinese economy is slowing down, and will remain lower until the US and EU picks up again (at which point, the gap won't narrow any faster anyway), I'd say the 2015-2020 timeframe is still the good bet. Unless something big happens.
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Economy growing at 9.2% is bad news?. Spin, Spin.I just love this pundit where is their brain . Today I check the stock market world over has gone up. Oil prices gone up. Well the old adage If you can't beat them bad mouthed them!
Worst still love how the Indian read the news. LIE LIE. If you don't like the message kill the messenger
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China's economy grows at slowest rate in more than two years

By David Pierson

January 17, 2012, 4:49 a.m.
Reporting from Beijing—
In the final quarter of 2011, China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in 2½ years because of shrinking exports, tighter bank lending and a cooling real estate market.

Compared with the same period a year earlier, the country’s gross domestic product grew by 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2011, down from 9.1% in the previous quarter, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday.

For the year, the world’s second-largest economy expanded by 9.2%, off from 10.4% in 2010.

Though blazingly high by international standards, China’s economic growth is likely slipping uncomfortably fast for the country’s leadership.

Quarter-on-quarter growth slowed to 8.2% between the third and fourth quarters compared with 9.5% between the second and third quarters.

Many analysts expect conditions to worsen as Europe, China’s biggest export market, shows no signs of stabilizing. Consensus is growing that China’s growth could falter further, to around 7.5%, in the first quarter of this year.

That would mark a significant decline because China’s communist government has traditionally eyed 8% as the rate necessary to maintain social stability.

Fears of widespread unrest abounded after China’s economic growth slumped to 6.8% during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis and an estimated 20 million migrant workers were out of jobs.

Beijing responded to that crisis by introducing an unprecedentedly large stimulus package that ultimately fueled the property bubble and high rates of inflation that bind policymakers today.

Inflation grew at a 15-month low in December, but still remains above the government’s target.

With little room for more aggressive stimulus, the central government will likely target policy with greater efficiency to blunt the effects of any serious global economic slump, experts say.

That may include lowering taxes, boosting loans to the private sector and investing more in social services such as healthcare -- in short, anything to wean China off investment as a major engine of growth and to rebalance toward consumption.

"At this juncture, the challenge for policymakers is to implement measures that boost domestic demand without setting back progress made in curbing inflation," said Jing Ulrich, chairman of Global Markets for JP Morgan.

Such reform will require an acceptance of slower growth in a country that still considers itself in the early stages of development. At $7.4 trillion, China’s economy is still half the size of the United States'.
 

A.Man

Major
Haha, when China GDP past Germany just few years ago; they made it a big news. Now, Germany is only the half the sides of China!
 

escobar

Brigadier
real economic growth is 9,2% but
nominal growth is 18%

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Total automobile sales in China rose to 18.51 million vehicles in 2011 to take the world's top spot for the second year in a row, although the growth rate has slowed from previous years in the absence of government incentives.

General Motors and Ford were among the biggest gainers in terms of sales volume in the Chinese market.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported sales of automobiles in all categories reached more than 18.51 million vehicles over the past year for a moderate growth rate of 2.5%, a level below market anticipation and much lower than the 30% growth registered in 2009.

Sales of passenger cars posted comparatively higher growth rate of 5.2% in 2011 to reach 14.5 million vehicles.

Some industry analysts expect growth in sales of around 8% for 2012. An analyst at LMC Automotive said the auto industry in China has now entered the direction of sustainable development. Though the annual growth rate of sales will not be as high as in the past due to the lack of government incentives like easy loans, encouraging auto sales in rural regions and the tax reductions adopted in 2009 and 2010 as part of the economic stimulus package to counter the impact of the 2008 financial crisis.

Government incentives helped lift total auto sales in China overtake the United States for the first time in 2010. Analysts pointed out that the government incentives were catering to buyers who chose Chinese brands with lower emissions. But sales slowed after the conclusion of the incentive programs, reviving better marketing opportunities for more competitive foreign vehicles.

General Motors and its joint ventures in China sold 2.55 million vehicles in China for a healthy growth rate of 8.3% in 2011. Ford also chalked up a comparatively higher growth rate of 7% to sell 520,000 cars.

Audi meanwhile registered much a higher growth rate of 37% to boost sales to 313,000 vehicles, not just higher than expected but also enabling China to become a bigger market for the automaker than its home market of Germany.

Sales of Japanese brands in the Chinese market were disrupted by the March earthquake in northeastern Japan and the prolonged floods in Thailand in the latter half of last year that affected supplies of parts and components. Toyota reported the slowest annual growth rate in years while Honda's sales dropped by 4.5% from 2010.

For 2012, overall auto sales in China are expected to increase at a higher growth rate of 8% with expected sales of 20 million cars, according to auto industry analysts.

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China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has signed an agreement with the Saudi state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco to jointly develop a new oil refinery. The move is the Chinese state-owned oil company's first overseas refinery, following a similar move by its rival Sinopec.

CNPC and Saudi Aramco will invest US$10 billion to build an oil refinery with an area of 5.2 million square meters in the city of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. Saudi Aramco will hold a 62.5% stake in the joint venture company, with CNPC holding the rest, according to the agreement.

The joint venture will be the first overseas oil refinery for CNPC and is expected to produce 900,000 barrels per day by the end of 2014.

The agreement will not only speed up CNPC's internationalization but will also provide a further source of oil from outside China to secure the country's energy supply, the company said.

Saudi Aramco is rated the world's most valuable non-publicly listed company, estimated to be worth US$8 trillion. The company currently has the largest crude oil reserves in the world, at 260 million barrels.

"China's oil companies previously used to explore upstream oilfields and merge with other oil companies, but are now focusing on investing in overseas downstream oil refineries," said Li Li, senior manager of China's International Conference on Information Systems. Expansion into overseas oil refining has become another option as China's domestic oil companies gradually face greater restrictions for their operations within the country, said Li.

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According to an article in the Chinese-language Beijing Times, China enacted 207 overseas purchases last year with a total value of US$42.9 billion.

About half of these acquisitions took place in North America and Europe. As the survey pointed out, Chinese purchases of North America companies amounted to 57 in 2011, compared with 52 in 2010. In Europe, there were about 25 purchases in 2010, but 44 in 2011.

Qian Liqiang, a partner of PricewaterhouseCoopers China in the purchasing business, said that Chinese enterprises are now interested more in purchasing companies oriented towards consumption since the business of natural resources is no longer as critical as it was before. Overseas acquisitions by Chinese companies are still in their infancy, and it will take time to see whether they will be successfil or not, Qian said.

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The Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, and the secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Abdullatif al-Zayani, agreed on Sunday to speed up negotiations on a free trade agreement between the two sides.

Setting up the free trade zone will boost trade and economic cooperation between China and the GCC, enhance their overall relationship and have a positive influence on the world, Wen said in Riyadh. As the impact of the global financial crisis deepens, China will step up communications and coordination with the GCC to jointly face up to the challenges and better maintain mutual interests, he added.

For his part, Al-Zayani said that the smooth development of relations with China and fruitful economic cooperation and trade are conducive to the efforts of GCC members to tide over the fallout from the financial crisis and maintain stable economic growth. The GCC and its members view relations with China from a strategic perspective and appreciate the important roles that China has played in regional and international affairs, the secretary-general said.

The GCC will expand cooperation with China in trade, investment, energy cooperation and people-to-people exchanges, and make contributions to world peace and development, he added.

The Chinese premier arrived in Saudi Arabia Saturday evening after an official visit to Nepal. While in Riyadh, he met with top Saudi leaders and secretary-general of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. After his stay in Saudi Arabia, the Chinese leader will visit the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

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China's industrial value-added output growth decelerated in 2011 from a year earlier to 13.9% year-on-year, the country's National Bureau of Statistics said at a press conference Tuesday.

The full-year figure was down 1.8 percentage points from the growth rate of 2010, according to Ma Jiantang, chief of the bureau.

In December, the industrial value-added output was up 12.8% from a year earlier. On a monthly basis, industrial value-added output increased by 1.1%, said Ma.

Industrial value-added output measures the final output value of industrial production, or the value of gross industrial output minus intermediate input, such as raw materials and labor costs.

China's industrial profits grew 24.4% year-on-year to 4.66 trillion yuan (US$738 billion) in the first 11 months of 2011, according to the bureau.

Industrial value-added output increased 11.7% in China's eastern regions, by 18.2% in central areas and by 16.8% in western parts of the country.

For heavy industries, industrial value-added output in 2011 was up 14.3% year-on-year, and that for light industries climbed 13%.

China's economy expanded by 9.2% in 2011 from a year earlier and 8.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.

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London is set to become a major offshore trading center for the yuan, as Britain teams up with Hong Kong to develop such business.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) and the UK Treasury on Monday agreed to launch a private-sector forum to strengthen links between Hong Kong and London in such areas as clearing and settlement, market liquidity and the development of new yuan-denominated products, the HKMA said in a news release.

The forum will have representatives from financial institutions in Hong Kong and London, including HSBC Holdings PLC, Standard Chartered PLC, Bank of China Ltd, Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays PLC. It will meet twice a year, and the first meeting will be held in Hong Kong in May, it said.

China and Britain agreed in September to cooperate on the development of the offshore yuan business and develop London into an offshore yuan market.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said in Hong Kong on Monday that the intention was to "establish London as a new hub" for the yuan.

"It's clear that there is scope for a substantial expansion of the yuan market in the coming years," he told a meeting of Asian finance officials and executives.

He added that London was perfectly placed to be a gateway for Asian investment and banking to Europe and as a bridge to the United States.

Osborne said establishing London as an offshore center for yuan-denominated settlements will benefit China's economic development as well as Britain's.

China's rapid growth had provided opportunities that Europe should seize as it struggled to emerge from the sovereign debt crisis. Britain's merchandise exports to China rose 20 percent in 2010, a measure of the importance of Asia to Britain's long-term economic growth, said Osborne, who is visiting Hong Kong, Beijing and Tokyo to strengthen business ties, especially in financial services, infrastructure and innovation.

The HKMA plans to extend the operating hours of the yuan real-time settlement system to 15 hours by the end of June, to accommodate London and other European markets to settle offshore yuan payments.

"The fact that China will open its third yuan offshore market in London is a strategic decision for the world's second-largest economy to increase the convertibility of the yuan and evolve the yuan into a reserve currency globally," said David Wang, executive director of the Royal Bank of Scotland (China) Co Ltd. He said a deeper economic partnership and a stronger willingness to cooperate underpin the establishment of such an offshore market.

China and Britain aim to increase annual bilateral trade to $100 billion from the current level of $50 billion to $60 billion.

"The move is necessary, given China's growing investment in the UK and the wider eurozone, as well as its increasing trade with the region," said Daniel Chan, chief economist at BWC Capital Markets.

Kevin Lai, an analyst at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co Ltd, said that internationalization of the yuan will require more than one offshore yuan business center.

"However, the lack of a natural funding pool could undermine efforts to establish London as a new hub for the offshore yuan business," he said.

Hong Kong's yuan liquidity pool, which grew significantly over the past two years, meant that it was well-placed to help with the development of the offshore yuan market in London, Chan said.

The new cooperative agreement "means that London recognizes Hong Kong as the major yuan trade settlement center", said Andrew Fung, executive director of Hang Seng Bank.

Nicholas Kwan, head of research at the Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd, warned that competition between the two financial centers would likely increase.

"As time passes, the development of offshore yuan businesses may (lead to) market competition that both parties may not have anticipated. We must monitor market developments closely."
 
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