Chinese Economics Thread

xypher

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Interesting and rather balanced article - some of the obvious problems (like overleveraged property market, rising inequality) are mentioned, but without a typical "ChYnA's LeHmAn mOmEnT REEEEE" Western liberal copium screech. Also a few spot-on (imo) quotes:
In fact, every stage of China's rapid rise has been accompanied by a chorus of Western critics who appear either unable or unwilling to believe that its model of development could be successful.

They have instead continually searched for flaws that, they hoped, would either slow the country's economic growth or lead to a USSR-style collapse.

In the 1990s, for example, it was in vogue to argue that China's reforms would fail due to entrenched vested interests. By the 2000s, this had evolved into the theory that its low-cost export-orientated model was unsustainable. In the 2010s, critiques revolved around the perils of China's debt-fueled growth, capital misallocation and expectations of an economic hard landing.

Despite all these fears, China has powered ahead. Its gross domestic product, for example, has increased more than tenfold since Gordon Chang's "The Coming Collapse of China" was published in 2001. It is curious, therefore, how persistent the permabears remain, despite all the evidence that their earlier negative views were misplaced or exaggerated.
Many such critics, however, appear driven more by ideological differences than economic realities. They view China very much through the prism of it being a rigid command-and-control Communist system doomed to follow the Soviet Union to eventual failure, thereby proving the superiority of Western systems. And this entrenched expectation subsequently frames the way they instinctively, and negatively, interpret the actions of its government.
 

Overbom

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Decoupling and celebrating China's power shortage. Let see who get hurt the most.
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No worries. The EU-idiots have magnesium reserves until the end of November. Guess what happens in December...

Also guess what happens with winter coming in and even more gas shortages (Chad Putin is also helping ;) )

EU is heading for an industrial catastrophy in the next months which China will partly (energy issues) take advantage and capture many of the EU's industrial export customers
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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...
Chinese imports of Russian coal have surged every month since May, either doubling or tripling from 2020 levels. The monthly figures to the current year also remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
...

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"In 1997, only a few trains passed through the BAM per day. Only the lazy didn’t ask the question: “Why did we build this railroad? What are we going to transport along it and in which direction? "

Freight traffic grew painfully slowly, barely breaking the 10 million ton mark at the beginning of the 2000s and bringing Russian Railways up to 5 billion rubles in losses a year.
...
Then coal went along the BAM. In 2012, the throughput capacity of BAM exceeded 50 million tons, in 2019 it reached 100 million tons.

As the “green revolution” began and flourished in the west, the demand for Russian coal grew. First of all, in Asian countries, where new
thermal power plants were built.
...
Coal from Kuzbass, Yakut coal, Buryat ... Over 70% of the BAM and Transsib load in the eastern direction is already accounted for by export shipments of coal. The 144 million ton capacity of BAM, achieved in 2021 during the first stage of modernization, turned out to be insufficient. BAM suffocates from lack of capacity.
...
During the summer and autumn, the government and Russian Railways continued to work out various options for the development of BAM. There are three of them:

- expansion of BAM for additional export of 16.6 million tons of coal from the Elga deposit. For this, a section of the Ulak-Komsomolsk highway will be rebuilt. The approaches to the ports of the Vanino-Sovgavansky junction and areas to the west of Ulak are not affected. Under this option, Russian Railways will lay an additional 553 km of track, the cost of the work is estimated at 332.6 billion rubles. This option is considered as the main one.

- according to the second scenario, by 2030 the throughput of BAM should be increased to 210 million tons. This includes not only the export of 16.6 million tons of Elga coal to the ports of Vanino, but another 13.4 million tons of cargo to the ports of Primorye. To achieve this goal, Russian Railways will have to lay 1.1 thousand km of the second main tracks on the BAM, in addition to the 553 km provided by the "Elga" part. The estimated cost of the work is 1.22 trillion rubles.

- The third option involves the construction of infrastructure with a view to cargo flows in the amount of 240 million tons. This includes already large-scale work not only on the BAM, but also on the Transsib, which includes the construction of tracks bypassing Khabarovsk, the bridge over the Amur and the second Kuznetsovsky tunnel. In total, it is planned to lay another 1.45 thousand km of the second main and over 800 km of the third tracks. Taking into account the “Elga” part, the project will cost 2.89 trillion rubles.
"


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FairAndUnbiased

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China has dramatically ramped up coal imports from Russia to compensate for shortages caused by the ongoing trade row with Australia, once the country’s biggest coal supplier.

According to customs data, China’s coal imports surged 76% in September compared to the same period a year ago, and totaled 32.9 million tons. Much of the coal came from Russia and Indonesia.

In September, the nation purchased some 3.7 million tons of thermal coal from Russia, marking 28% growth versus the previous month and a 230% increase year-over-year.

Chinese imports of Russian coal have surged every month since May, either doubling or tripling from 2020 levels. The monthly figures to the current year also remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

China’s economy crucially depends on coal as one of the ways to generate power. The mounting shortage of coal supplies prompted power cuts across 20 Chinese provinces earlier this year. At the same time, Beijing is seeking to drastically cut emissions, while manufacturing demand keeps growing as a result of the post-pandemic reopening of major economies.

China halted purchases of coal from Australia in late 2020, after Canberra backed a US call for an international probe into Beijing’s alleged role in the Covid-19 outbreak. Imports of thermal coal from Australia remained zero, according to the customs agency’s data.
There's no point in cooperating with their climate change goals at this point. No need to say anything, just stop. Maybe climate cooperation with a few countries, contingent upon mutual benefit, nonaggression and equitable sharing of costs.

Otherwise they are absolute hypocrites who show no will to do anything about climate in reality, only use it as a talking point while the world burns. Since they are OK with ruling over the ashes, so be it.
 

pmc

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EU problem is that all that investments in past 30 years in Eastern EU. didnot create self sustaining entities that can help Western EU.
Eastern EU despite very high education standards could not replicate Asian tiger economies.
Now Western EU is aging population, buried in Debt, non-existant military power and all of sudden it has to compete for natural resources in open market. on top of that Europe want to create semiconductor supply chain and Europe digital sovereignty. (aka software development).
Europe does not have 4 million Indians that can write trillions of line of code in single language. They are truly living in lala land of shortages and stagflation. I even think China will become only option for Europeans to drive around in Cars. what will VW and BMW do without China?.
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
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EU problem is that all that investments in past 30 years in Eastern EU. didnot create self sustaining entities that can help Western EU.
Eastern EU despite very high education standards could not replicate Asian tiger economies.
Now Western EU is aging population, buried in Debt, non-existant military power and all of sudden it has to compete for natural resources in open market. on top of that Europe want to create semiconductor supply chain and Europe digital sovereignty. (aka software development).
Europe does not have 4 million Indians that can write trillions of line of code in single language. They are truly living in lala land of shortages and stagflation. I even think China will become only option for Europeans to drive around in Cars. what will VW and BMW do without China?.
I think EU has chosen to just tax or bill US big tech every other year. My general experience with indians is that they are more a burden then a production boost. The better ones have other destinations to go too like US big tech.
 

gelgoog

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Inner dome installed at first Zhangzhou Hualong One​

28 October 2021


The inner safety dome was yesterday installed on the containment building of unit 1 of the Zhangzhou nuclear power plant in China's Fujian province, China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) has announced. Zhangzhou unit 1, the first of two Hualong One units at the site, is scheduled to enter commercial operation in 2024.

Zhangzhou-1-inner-dome-October-2021-(CNNC).jpg

The hoisting of the dome onto the top of Zhangzhou unit 1's containment building (Image: CNNC)

The steel dome - measuring 45 metres in diameter and almost 14 metres in height, and weighing about 260 tonnes - was raised by crane and placed on top of the walls of the double containment structure. An outer dome will subsequently be installed over the inner one.

CNNC said the installation of the dome is an important milestone in the construction of nuclear power projects. The dome is located on top of the nuclear island. Its main function is to ensure the integrity and leak tightness of the reactor building, and it plays a key role in the containment of radioactive substances.

The company noted that, with the installation of the inner dome now complete, the project has now "shifted from the construction stage to the installation stage."

The reactor pressure vessel (RPV) was installed at Zhangzhou 1 earlier this month. At that time, CNNC said the main nuclear island equipment - including the RPV and steam generators - were now in place, "a prerequisite for the subsequent dome hoisting and main pipeline welding."

China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued construction licences for Zhangzhou units 1 and 2 on 9 October 2019 to CNNC-Guodian Zhangzhou Energy Company, the owner of the Zhangzhou nuclear power project which was created by CNNC (51%) and China Guodian Corporation (49%) in 2011. The licences are valid for 10 years. Construction of unit 1 began one week after the issuance of the construction licence, with that of unit 2 starting in September 2020. The units are scheduled to enter commercial operation in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

CNNC began construction of two demonstration Hualong One units at its Fuqing plant in Fujian province in May and December 2015, respectively. The first of these, Fuqing 5, was connected to the grid on 27 November last year, having achieved first criticality on 21 October, and entered commercial operation on 30 January this year. Fuqing 6 is expected to begin operating by the end of 2021.

Construction of two demonstration Hualong One (HPR1000) units is also under way at China General Nuclear's Fangchenggang plant in the Guangxi Autonomous Region. Those units are expected to start up in 2022. CNNC has also started construction of the first of two Hualong One units at Taipingling in Guangdong.

Two HPR1000 units are under construction at Pakistan's Karachi nuclear power plant. Construction began on Karachi unit 2 in 2015 and unit 3 in 2016; the units are planned to enter commercial operation in 2021 and 2022.
 
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