Chinese Economics Thread

[Hadoren]

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But still 8% forecast for 2021 and 5.6% for 2022.

It is basically impossible for China to have 8% GDP growth in 2021.

Let's do some simple math. China's GDP expanded by 12.7% in the first half of this year (7.9% in the second quarter).

You just then average 12.7 and the second half growth rate.

First Half	Second Half	Year Estimate (Average)
12.7	3.3 (lol)	8
...	4	8.4
...	5	8.9
...	5.5	9.1
...	6	9.4
...	6.5	9.6
...	7	9.9
...	8	10.4

 

[Maikeru]

It is basically impossible for China to have 8% GDP growth in 2021.

Let's do some simple math. China's GDP expanded by 12.7% in the first half of this year (7.9% in the second quarter).

You just then average 12.7 and the second half growth rate.

First Half	Second Half	Year Estimate (Average)
12.7	3.3 (lol)	8
...	4	8.4
...	5	8.9
...	5.5	9.1
...	6	9.4
...	6.5	9.6
...	7	9.9
...	8	10.4

Are you sure it didn't expand at an annualized rate of 12.7% in 2021H1?

 

[getready]

Russia has traditionally focused on oil and gas, and if nuclear is added into consideration, Russian coal faces much competition in funding and government support, so infrastructure and logistics for Russian coal mines have never been cutting edge. In Aust, coal and iron ore are the main export commodities, and miners and related firms in the supply chain never had issues attracting funding.

But given Russia has so much of the stuff, they'll be stupid to ignore it, so there have been investments to upgrade facilities and increase productivity. Russian coal exports have increased in the past decade but oil and especially gas get all the coverage.

I see. Thanks for the reply

 

[getready]

Well the largest demand for electricity are on the east coast and southern province like Guangdong So importing Russian coal will cause transportation charges. Australian coal are transported using coal ships cheaper than rail transport.

The present power shortage is not due to lack of coal. It has more to do with how electricity cost is structured in China. Since they are regulated a lot of power company just idle their plant rather than generating electricity at lost!

I see thanks. Didn’t realise the cost of transporting from russia actually more expensive despite the shorter distance. Didn’t take into account how cheap shipping can be in comparison

 

[Tam]

I see thanks. Didn’t realise the cost of transporting from russia actually more expensive despite the shorter distance. Didn’t take into account how cheap shipping can be in comparison

Land transportation is more expensive than sea transport. Once you factor this bit, it explains why coastal regions are preferred for manufacturing and export.

 

[Overbom]

Land transportation is more expensive than sea transport. Once you factor this bit, it explains why coastal regions are preferred for manufacturing and export.

What you are saying is correct about cost. But I will also add another thing related to it and that is, transportation capacity.

How many containers can a freight train take? There are hard limits based on the train, railway etc

However, with cargo ships, want more containers? No problem Sir. Here lets add another 2 000 on top. It is absolutely ridiculous how much more capacity sea trade provides over land trade ( which in the end makes marine trade vastly cheaper than trains)

The one thing land transportation has is that it a lot faster to move goods with trains, than waiting weeks and months for the ships to travel around the world

 

[AndrewS]

What you are saying is correct about cost. But I will also add another thing related to it and that is, transportation capacity.

How many containers can a freight train take? There are hard limits based on the train, railway etc

However, with cargo ships, want more containers? No problem Sir. Here lets add another 2 000 on top. It is absolutely ridiculous how much more capacity sea trade provides over land trade ( which in the end makes marine trade vastly cheaper than trains)

The one thing land transportation has is that it a lot faster to move goods with trains, than waiting weeks and months for the ships to travel around the world

The other thing is that a port is connected to literally every other port in the world. There's way more destinations that can be served

 

[pmc]

What you are saying is correct about cost. But I will also add another thing related to it and that is, transportation capacity.

How many containers can a freight train take? There are hard limits based on the train, railway etc

However, with cargo ships, want more containers? No problem Sir. Here lets add another 2 000 on top. It is absolutely ridiculous how much more capacity sea trade provides over land trade ( which in the end makes marine trade vastly cheaper than trains)

The one thing land transportation has is that it a lot faster to move goods with trains, than waiting weeks and months for the ships to travel around the world

Railway and Land will gain over ships as BRI and EuroAsian transport network is upgraded over coming years. There will be electric Semi trucks but hardly possible electric ocean liners.
untill now ships had advantage as North American consumption had dominance over rest of the world due to WW2 victory.
due to that dominance Europe didnot put that green agenda on heavy fuel of ships on same extent.

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[Tam]

What you are saying is correct about cost. But I will also add another thing related to it and that is, transportation capacity.

How many containers can a freight train take? There are hard limits based on the train, railway etc

However, with cargo ships, want more containers? No problem Sir. Here lets add another 2 000 on top. It is absolutely ridiculous how much more capacity sea trade provides over land trade ( which in the end makes marine trade vastly cheaper than trains)

The one thing land transportation has is that it a lot faster to move goods with trains, than waiting weeks and months for the ships to travel around the world

True. This also explains why nations with too much inland areas: USA, Russia, India, Australia, are inherently and inevitably doomed and uncompetitive for manufacturing.

For the US and the UK, crisis level shortage of truck drivers are not helping things a bit.

In order to move a container inland, you need at least one truck driver, or one person per container.

A 23,000 TEU container ship, can have a crew as low as 20, so let's say if we put it at 23 to be generous, that would be 1 person per 1000 TEU or 1 person per 1000 20' containers or 500 40' containers.

Instead of moving ore, oil or gas across the Asian continent even by rail, to move resources from Russia to China, one can consider developing the Siberian or Northeastern route by ship that takes the carrier through the Bering Straits and into the Arctic ocean.

 

[Tyler]

True. This also explains why nations with too much inland areas: USA, Russia, India, Australia, are inherently and inevitably doomed and uncompetitive for manufacturing.

For the US and the UK, crisis level shortage of truck drivers are not helping things a bit.

In order to move a container inland, you need at least one truck driver, or one person per container.

A 23,000 TEU container ship, can have a crew as low as 20, so let's say if we put it at 23 to be generous, that would be 1 person per 1000 TEU or 1 person per 1000 20' containers or 500 40' containers.

Instead of moving ore, oil or gas across the Asian continent even by rail, to move resources from Russia to China, one can consider developing the Siberian or Northeastern route by ship that takes the carrier through the Bering Straits and into the Arctic ocean.

India has quite long coastal lines. That is why they have big fishing industry. Do they have lots of natural resources inland of India?

UK could have imported thousands of Indian drivers to solve their drivers problems.