If China manages to pop the property bubble with minimal contagion/consequences, it would be the greatest gift for the young Chinese trying to enter the house market.
It would also supercharge business growth, as the sky-high property prices have been a significant problem for SMEs.
So far, the Gov has acted very calmly and didnt make any rush moves.
I say, let the big investors get wiped put, bondholders a big haircut, and let Local Govs finish Evergrande's units which are under construction/prepaid.
Very small investors/common people should suffer minimal loses (not nothing, they should also learn some lessons about where to put their money, and to be vigilant about too good to be true investments).
Easier said than done. Consider these:
It's the asset class where the majority of Chinese hold their wealth, not just the wealthy class.
It's far more important than equity market ever was.
It's probably the biggest source of revenue for many local governments.
It's the one sector that drives the biggest share of GDP growth.
It's not that only this administration realizes the danger and risks that real estate sector poses. It's been an issue for over a decade now. And, to be fair, the kind of real estate model that China practices (borrowing from Hong Kong) has been a huge factor in transforming Chinese urban landscape and infrastructure. But its negative effects have begun to overshadow its positives.
It's time to tackle the problem, before it's too late. The key is to have a comprehensive strategy to deal it.
Hopefully this Evergrande crisis will send the right signal that the central government means business. There had been too many false signals before.