I think by 2030, China's GDP per capita (in 2019 dollars) could be as high as $30k USD, and as high as $40k by 2035.
This project assume continuation of current trends.
As we converge on the inflection point, a lot of thing could move rapidly. For one thing, once US loses the top spot, the dollar could devalue precipitously. Since the US economy is build primarily on the primacy of the dollar and domestic consumption, devaluation could tank EVERYTHING!
Look around, do you seriously believe everyone's going to make $90k (or a new MB S-Class, since purchasing power is shifting) a year?
There should be far more panic than the graph would suggest.........
Precisely, dollar value or yuan/dollar exchange rate is the wild card. The foundation of the US empire now heavily depends on it, particularly after the pandemic when the US debts have gone up so much and so rapidly.
That projection is a more optimistic one for the US and a somewhat more pessimistic one for China (as usual). If the Chinese yuan holds its own and appreciates moderately but steady (say 3-5% a year), China can overtake the US in nominal GDP as early as 2025 or 2026. In any case, it's a high probability event between 2025 - 2030 depending on exchange rate of yuan/dollar and relative economic growth performance.
Dollar is definitely overvalued relative to US real economic performance, and is getting the hegemony premium. But it has started to show cracks due to severe structural problems in the US economic, political and social systems demonstrated vividly to the world over the last few years. What are still holding its value are the lack of alternative currently and some remaining confidence that the US can still bounce back given its past track records. But China is closing in. If in the next 5-10 years, China successfully surpasses the US in nominal GDP, becomes self-sufficient in key technology industries (semiconductor being the foremost), and makes significant inroads in the internationalization of yuan (in which the rmb digital currency will play important role), then the US dollar will be in serious trouble. The Chinese military will almost certainly gain ground over the US, based on our current knowledge of PLA's development plan and pipeline, particularly in key strategic platforms.
In that scenario, it's not difficult to see dollar will lose 20% or more of its value overall by the end of the decade. It's a decade of make-or-break for the empire.
