Chinese Economics Thread

[voyager1]

China is in a very good position, however more needs to be made. More reforms are needed to keep up high growth. China should not experclct or want a "small growth" of 5%.

Abolishment of hukou system on cities with less than 3mln residents is good first step

 

[LesAdieux]

This has little if anything to do with China's Q1 growth numbers, domestic retail growth is higher than expected but industrial growth lower the numbers are in RMB not dollars when the rest of the world is in lock down that puts a damper on foreign markets. Petroleum contracts for actual industrial usage rather than trading are signed months if not years ahead that's why there's an oil futures market and hedging. Printing dollars has an negative impact on the rest of the world but that's nothing to do with this set of growth numbers

Beyond that disingenuous western MSM is pointing to a 0.6% growth vis-a-vis Q4 but not mentioning the usual Q1 slowdown because of chinese new year! They should wheel out Gordon Chang again to promote his 20 year old book about the 'coming' fall of China!

Its quite hilarious that with everyone else posting negative growth numbers the only thing they can say is that China's numbers are not 'where they think they should be!'

seasonal effect is too deep in China, Q4 and Q1 are not comparable, you cannot use some software like the X11 to adjust it. and the covid makes it impossible. even in the US, the Q1 GDP used to be bad, and Liesman in CNBC didn't like it, he thought the census bureau didn't do enough seasonal adjustment. guess what? they listened to Liesman, and did "further and deeper" seasonal adjustment, now it looks better.

 

[voyager1]

Strong copium from the West. Check the FT article on China's growth (need subscription) and you will enjoy their tears.

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Their new narrative is that China's new figures are YoY (Year-on-Year) and not QoQ (Quarter-on-Quarter), lmao.

Did just everyone forget that all the gdp figures are released YoY because the the QoQ are not accurate due to seasonal effects. Like the Q2 is not the same as the last quarter Q4 where everyone buys presents/gifts, and black Friday etc

Delusional people...

 

[Deleted member 15949]

Beyond that disingenuous western MSM is pointing to a 0.6% growth vis-a-vis Q4 but not mentioning the usual Q1 slowdown because of chinese new year! They should wheel out Gordon Chang again to promote his 20 year old book about the 'coming' fall of China!

The numbers are seasonally adjusted

 

[Deleted member 15949]

seasonal effect is too deep in China, Q4 and Q1 are not comparable, you cannot use some software like the X11 to adjust it. and the covid makes it impossible. even in the US, the Q1 GDP used to be bad, and Liesman in CNBC didn't like it, he thought the census bureau didn't do enough seasonal adjustment. guess what? they listened to Liesman, and did "further and deeper" seasonal adjustment, now it looks better.

China uses NBS-SA, not X11-ARIMA

 

[Deleted member 15949]

seasonal effect is too deep in China, Q4 and Q1 are not comparable, you cannot use some software like the X11 to adjust it. and the covid makes it impossible. even in the US, the Q1 GDP used to be bad, and Liesman in CNBC didn't like it, he thought the census bureau didn't do enough seasonal adjustment. guess what? they listened to Liesman, and did "further and deeper" seasonal adjustment, now it looks better.

China uses NBS-SA, not X11-ARIMA and even if they used X11-ARIMA, the issues would be smaller since the January and February seasonals would end up just being a fairly large ~1.2/1.3x given that the New Year is a consistent thing every Jan/Feb

 

[j17wang]

Chinese Economy Grew More Than 18% in First Quarter​

The 18.3% year-over-year growth rate for the first quarter is the highest since China began reporting quarterly GDP in 1992, surpassing the 15.3% rate in the first quarter of 1993.

But stripping out the statistical distortion from last year’s low base of comparison, economists at HSBC in Hong Kong estimate that underlying year-over-year GDP growth in the first three months of 2021 was about 5.4%, lower than the pre-coronavirus trend of roughly 6% growth. The bank expects the economy to continue “running below full speed” in the coming months.

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Corporate America will probably masturbate to any year on year growth of more than 10%, let alone 18%. Outside of American economists, is there anybody that actually believes the US will recover all their pre-COVID losses by the end of this year? I presume the tear gas and bullet industries in America must be having a blowout quarter with all this new demand from police departments.

 

[caudaceus]

Not bad, but room for improvement exists, as ideally, growth should remain somewhere between 5.5-6% over the next 5 years at least

Eh pandemic lockdown wasn't just a random exercise though it's real and damaging so of course the growth weren't high. I think the plan however will be to ride with the wave of global stimulus.

 

[AndrewS]

Corporate America will probably masturbate to any year on year growth of more than 10%, let alone 18%. Outside of American economists, is there anybody that actually believes the US will recover all their pre-COVID losses by the end of this year? I presume the tear gas and bullet industries in America must be having a blowout quarter with all this new demand from police departments.

Given how much money the US government is printing, it is feasible for them to recover all the pre-COVID losses this year.
But that is storing up trouble in the future with regards to inflation and US reserve currency status.

At the end of 2019, US national debt was $22 Trillion
It's currently at $28 Trillion, and I reckon it will be over $30 Trillion by the end of 2021.

US M1 money supply has increased by 55% since February. 35% of all US dollars in existence have been printed in 10 months

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[voyager1]

Given how much money the US government is printing, it is feasible for them to recover all the pre-COVID losses this year.
But that is storing up trouble in the future with regards to inflation and US reserve currency status.

At the end of 2019, US national debt was $22 Trillion
It's currently at $28 Trillion, and I reckon it will be over $30 Trillion by the end of 2021.

Agreed? The problem is that the Americans are planning to export their problems to the rest of the world. They are essentially doing a "I will take you all down with me" thing