Chinese Economics Thread

mobydog

Junior Member
First, you would like to know that Fort knox has never audited and refused to be audited. Cases of gold originating from there,have been found to be made of gold plated tungsten. It has been discovered in Germany and China, when they decided to do a drill test.

Google up "tungsten gold" will give you results in both videos and articles.
 

lostsoul

Junior Member
First, you would like to know that Fort knox has never audited and refused to be audited. Cases of gold originating from there,have been found to be made of gold plated tungsten. It has been discovered in Germany and China, when they decided to do a drill test.

Google up "tungsten gold" will give you results in both videos and articles.

Yes I know about that. Ron Paul has been campaigning for a long time for an Audit. I also know that China has alot of her gold stored in NY and London. If there comes a "crisis" involving China and the US(West) then guess who isn't going to get their gold if they asked for it?. De Gaulle had to send a Warship to New York. Germany has still most of her Gold in NY too. The US could make sure all China's Gold on US soil is tugsten filled if they wanted to.
Hugo Chavez is doing the right thing in asking for Venezuala's gold stored in London to be brought back home.

OT but News just in....

VIENNA (Commodity Online): A newly enacted Gold policy in Austria that restricts the free purchase of gold by individuals may just be the start of a European policy shift that might border on infringing an individual’s financial freedom.VIENNA (Commodity Online): A newly enacted Gold policy in Austria that restricts the free purchase of gold by individuals may just be the start of a European policy shift that might border on infringing an individual’s financial freedom.

Folks you better start stacking Gold asap. Dump your FIAT crap.
 

Quickie

Colonel
If China really only has 1000 tons of gold then all it would take is the US to devalue the current US$ (even more) and create a new US$ backed to some sort of gold standard ( the US gov has a reported 8000+ tons of gold).

China will be in big trouble.

Buying up US Tresuries and EU bonds is absolutely crazy. They will be worthless very soon.

If the U.S. choose to go that path, no country will ever trust the U.S. dollar again, ever. A newly designed U.S. dollar will still be the same worthless yankee dollar in the eyes of those countries holding the worthless trillions of old U.S. dollars.
 

i.e.

Senior Member
If China really only has 1000 tons of gold then all it would take is the US to devalue the current US$ (even more) and create a new US$ backed to some sort of gold standard ( the US gov has a reported 8000+ tons of gold).

China will be in big trouble.

Buying up US Tresuries and EU bonds is absolutely crazy. They will be worthless very soon.

US and europe would be in bigger trouble,
their economy will be in free fall.

Does it really matter to China if china has to write off 1.5 trillions worth of US Dollar assets?
Its central bank essentially prints yuan to mop up those $$$ and they have done that already so it is not like there is a big drain in the domestic economy.

And Unlike US Dollar, China's Fiat money actually means some thing because you can buy alot of stuff in Yuan. for better or worse, it has a trade surplus which means,if China demands only yuan for payment of trade then we would see yuan's value stay strong. dollar would go to toilet. bit like the old days pre-1840 when china only accepted silver and gold for trade payment and it ran a huge trade surplus with the west in the Tea, Silk, and Porcelean trade.
If that happens, Yuan would become currency of choice for commodity trade (oil, gas, gold, platinum, iron ore, etc etc) and would be stronger than dollar in its hayday because threre is essentially no other choices.

anyways, back to real life.
It's interesting for the next couple of years to see how things will fall. Euro is in trouble, dollar is in trouble. and china is slowly allowing offshore trading of Yuan and clearing in trade in Yuan. On the whole it has a slightly positive balance of payment, low budget deficit, high savings rate, and despite what trash mouth pudits say still a healthy debt load for domestic institutions.

We will see.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
US and europe would be in bigger trouble,
their economy will be in free fall.

Unlike US Dollar, China's Fiat money actually means some thing because you can buy alot of stuff in Yuan. for better or worse, it has a trade surplus which means,if China demands only yuan for payment of trade then we would see yuan's value stay strong.

It's interesting for the next couple of years to see how things will fall. Euro is in trouble, dollar is in trouble. and china is slowly allowing offshore trading of Yuan and clearing in trade in Yuan. On the whole it has a slightly positive balance of payment, low budget deficit, high savings rate, and despite what trash mouth pudits say still a healthy debt load for domestic institutions.

We will see.

Not entirely true. It takes a lot more than just a trade surplus for a currency to have purchasing power. Your debt needs to be freely monetizable too (allowing others to buy your debt), so that other countries can start building a reserve of that currency. Otherwise there is a price to convertibility, and jumping through the hoops for it makes the Yuan unlikely to be used as a medium of exchange for trade. Here's an article that I was reading yesterday which is ironically appropriate.

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antiterror13

Brigadier
If China really only has 1000 tons of gold then all it would take is the US to devalue the current US$ (even more) and create a new US$ backed to some sort of gold standard ( the US gov has a reported 8000+ tons of gold).

China will be in big trouble.

Buying up US Tresuries and EU bonds is absolutely crazy. They will be worthless very soon.

It is true that the Chinese govt only has around 1,000 tons gold, 1,054 tons exactly. But Chinese people in China own much more than that and is estimated to have around 15,000 tons, similar to Indian. These two countries (including privately owned) have the highest gold ownership. In emergency, the govt could (remember it happened before) ban of having gold and all gold to be converted to govt bond. Gold is gold, you can't eat gold ... gold usefulness is highly questionable for human apart from jewelry ..... Silver is much more useful. We can live happily and healthy without gold. Similar with Diamond, ok industrial diamond is very useful, I know that .... I mean diamond for jewelry
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
If China really only has 1000 tons of gold then all it would take is the US to devalue the current US$ (even more) and create a new US$ backed to some sort of gold standard ( the US gov has a reported 8000+ tons of gold).

China will be in big trouble.

Buying up US Tresuries and EU bonds is absolutely crazy. They will be worthless very soon.

The problem is that nothing else can absorb China's surplus except T-bills and Eurobonds. Right now China has as much an incentive to make sure the US has a healthy economy as the US does. And the US is not nearly so antagonistic towards China that it would screw itself and the rest of the world just to screw China. Red scare is about a China threat, not a China enemy.
 

RedMercury

Junior Member
When Chinese companies export stuff and get paid in USD, they go to the bank of china and convert that USD to RMB. In this process, the BoC print new RMB and give it to the companies; they keep the USD in their "vault" by investing it in treasuries and other safe bonds. This USD is the "asset" which backs their new issue of RMB. If they didn't have this asset to back the new RMB, the new RMB would cause inflation.

So what happens if the USD loses part of its value or if the RMB appreciates relative to the USD? Then there would be less USD in China's reserves to back the RMB that it has issued, which would mean that the RMB would decrease in value (inflate). Perhaps this is precisely what we are seeing now?
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
When Chinese companies export stuff and get paid in USD, they go to the bank of china and convert that USD to RMB. In this process, the BoC print new RMB and give it to the companies; they keep the USD in their "vault" by investing it in treasuries and other safe bonds. This USD is the "asset" which backs their new issue of RMB. If they didn't have this asset to back the new RMB, the new RMB would cause inflation.

So what happens if the USD loses part of its value or if the RMB appreciates relative to the USD? Then there would be less USD in China's reserves to back the RMB that it has issued, which would mean that the RMB would decrease in value (inflate). Perhaps this is precisely what we are seeing now?
Well...first of, the RMB is pegged to the USD, so the only way for the RMB's value to change relative to the USD is if the government lets it appreciate, or pegs it lower. Secondly, if the RMB appreciates relative to the USD that actually creates deflationary pressures, not inflationary pressures. While the value of the RMB would go up relative to the US dollar, the amount of RMB needed to do a transaction with the US would go down. This would mean less RMB need to be circulated to cover trade deals, which reduces the money supply relative to value. Remember, US T-bills are relatively insignificant in backing up the RMB's value, and the timescale they operate under reduce their effects on the money supply.

A monetization of the US debt would reduce the yields of the T-bills, which could increase long term inflation, but that is a separate phenomena. However, this is a relatively roundabout way of analyzing the matter. Debt monetization creates long term inflation of the USD, so naturally a currency pegged to the USD would also experience long term inflation. However, if that pegged currency is allowed to appreciate while the USD inflates, you essentially have a reduction of inflationary pressure, because the other currency's value would increase, and though the treasury yields would be even lower relative to the value of that currency overall that would be more because the relative value of the currency has gone up, which would still mean that less of that currency need be in circulation.

On the whole, RMB appreciation reduces inflation because it reduces the demand for RMBs, and it's why the Chinese government has allowed the appreciation of the RMB in the last half decade or so. Since 2006 they've been using currency appreciation to help manage inflationary pressures. This, and not international pressure, is the reason China has allowed for appreciation.
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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September 15, 2011


China Consolidates Grip on Rare Earths

By KEITH BRADSHER


BEIJING — In the name of fighting pollution, China has sent the price of compact fluorescent light bulbs soaring in the United States.

By closing or nationalizing dozens of the producers of rare earth metals — which are used in energy-efficient bulbs and many other green-energy products — China is temporarily shutting down most of the industry and crimping the global supply of the vital resources.

China produces nearly 95 percent of the world’s rare earth materials, and it is taking the steps to improve pollution controls in a notoriously toxic mining and processing industry. But the moves also have potential international trade implications and have started yet another round of price increases for rare earths, which are vital for green-energy products including giant wind turbines, hybrid gasoline-electric cars and compact fluorescent bulbs.

General Electric, facing complaints in the United States about rising prices for its compact fluorescent bulbs, recently noted in a statement that if the rate of inflation over the last 12 months on the rare earth element europium oxide had been applied to a $2 cup of coffee, that coffee would now cost $24.55.

A pack of three 11-watt G.E. compact fluorescent bulbs — each the lighting equivalent of a 40-watt incandescent bulb — was priced on Thursday at $15.88 on Wal-Mart’s Web site for pickup in a Nashville, Ark., store. The average price for fluorescent bulbs has risen 37 percent this year, according to the National Electrical Manufacturers Association.

Wal-Mart, which has made a big push for compact fluorescent bulbs, acknowledged that it needed to raise prices on some brands lately. “Obviously we don’t want to pass along price increases to our customers, but occasionally market conditions require it,” Tara Raddohl, a spokeswoman, said. The Chinese actions on rare earths were a prime topic of conversation at a conference here on Thursday that was organized by Metal-Pages, an industry data firm based in London.

Soaring prices are rippling through a long list of industries.

“The high cost of rare earths is having a significant chilling effect on wind turbine and electric motor production in spite of offsetting government subsidies for green tech products,” said one of the conference attendees, Michael N. Silver, chairman and chief executive of American Elements, a chemical company based in Los Angeles. It supplies rare earths and other high-tech materials to businesses.

But with light bulbs, especially, the timing of the latest price increases is politically awkward for the lighting industry and for environmentalists who backed a shift to energy-efficient lighting.

In January, legislation that President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007 will begin phasing out traditional incandescent bulbs in favor of spiral compact fluorescent bulbs and other technologies. The European Union has also mandated a switch from incandescent bulbs to energy-efficient lighting.

Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota is running for the Republican presidential nomination on a platform that includes strong opposition to the new lighting rules in the United States and has been a leader of efforts by House Republicans to repeal it.

China says it has largely shut down its rare earth industry for three months to address pollution problems. By invoking environmental concerns, China could potentially try to circumvent international trade rules that are supposed to prohibit export restrictions of vital materials.

In July, the European Union said in a statement on rare earth policy that the organization supported efforts to protect the environment, but that discrimination against foreign buyers of rare earths was not allowed under World Trade Organization rules.

China has been imposing tariffs and quotas on its rare earth exports for several years, curtailing global supplies and forcing prices to rise eightfold to fortyfold during that period for the various 17 rare earth elements.

Even before this latest move by China, the United States and the European Union were preparing to file a case at the W.T.O. this winter that would challenge Chinese export taxes and export quotas on rare earths.

Chinese officials here at the conference said the government was worried about polluted water, polluted air and radioactive residues from the rare earth industry, particularly among many small and private companies, some of which operate without the proper licenses. While rare earths themselves are not radioactive, they are always found in ore containing radioactive thorium and require careful handling and processing to avoid contaminating the environment.

Most of the country’s rare earth factories have been closed since early August, including those under government control, to allow for installation of pollution control equipment that must be in place by Oct. 1, executives and regulators said.

The government is determined to clean up the industry, said Xu Xu, chairman of the China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals and Chemicals Importers and Exporters, a government-controlled group that oversees the rare earth industry. “The entrepreneurs don’t care about environmental problems, don’t care about labor problems and don’t care about their social responsibility,” he said. “And now we have to educate them.”

Beijing authorities are creating a single government-controlled monopoly, Bao Gang Rare Earth, to mine and process ore in northern China, the region that accounts for two-thirds of China’s output. The government is ordering 31 mostly private rare earth processing companies to close this year in that region and is forcing four other companies into mergers with Bao Gang, said Li Zhong, the vice general manager of Bao Gang Rare Earth.

The government also plans to consolidate 80 percent of the production from southern China, which produces the rest of China’s rare earths, into three companies within the next year or two, Mr. Li said. All three of these companies are former ministries of the Chinese government that were spun out as corporations, and the central government still owns most of the shares.

The taxes and quotas China had in place to restrict rare earth exports caused many companies to move their factories to China from the United States and Europe so that they could secure a reliable and inexpensive source of raw materials.

China promised when it joined the W.T.O. in 2001 that it would not restrict exports except for a handful of obscure materials. Rare earths were not among the exceptions.

But even if the W.T.O. orders China to dismantle its export tariffs and quotas, the industry consolidation now under way could enable China to retain tight control over exports and continue to put pressure on foreign companies to relocate to China.

The four state-owned companies might limit sales to foreign buyers, a tactic that would be hard to address through the W.T.O., Western trade officials said.

Hedge funds and other speculators have been buying and hoarding rare earths this year, with prices rising particularly quickly through early August, and dipping since then as some have sold their inventories to take profits, said Constantine Karayannopoulos, the chief executive of Neo Material Technologies, a Canadian company that is one of the largest processors in China of raw rare earths.

“The real hot money got into the industry building neodymium and europium inventories in Shanghai warehouses,” he said.


Stephanie Clifford contributed reporting from New York.


This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: September 16, 2011



An earlier version of this article misstated the number of 11-watt G.E. compact fluorescent bulbs listed on Wal-Mart's Web site for $15.88. The price was for a three-pack, not a single bulb.

I read this article first in Yahoo where you can read people's comments. What a bunch of hypocrites! China is giving what they've always wanted. Their jobs back. It's not like this is something where the West can be weaned-off slowly in a transition. Western corporations won't stop buying rare earths from China until something this drastic happens and this means jobs come home. Unless they get some other country to risk their health in processing rare earths.

This is an example of what happens when they stop outsourcing to China. They're outraged at the end of cheap fluorescent bulbs. That's what China has done for the Western consumer where they can buy inexpensive products. They want it to end but they still want to pay less. Can't have it both ways. This is just like the default of Solyndra. Records show the cost of making their solar panels was like double for what they sold them. Not a good business model and certainly in the end didn't pan out how they hoped for and they went bankrupt. What are they going to demand now. High-paying American jobs and the best health care to cover the risks of working in rare earths yet still want cheap fluorescent bulbs. If that's the national economic model American workers are looking for, then look for a Solyndra-type bust for the US overall in the future.
 
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