Chinese Economics Thread

[OppositeDay]

China had found a way to solve its income inequality problem and distributed the nation wealth among the poorest of the poor. Mr Xi should be appreciated as he deliver political stability, social progress, and better lives. And in my opinion the 3rd greatest CCP leader after MAO and DENG.

from beijingwalker (Pakistan defense forum)

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As China’s Communist Party prepares for its 100th anniversary, it has shored up popular support at home. But challenges lie ahead.

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It’s not just about economics though. Communism is again fashionable among the youth. Mao is far more popular on the Chinese internet than he was 10 years ago.

 

[ansy1968]

It’s not just about economics though. Communism is again fashionable among the youth. Mao is far more popular on the Chinese internet than he was 10 years ago.

@OppositeDay we all know that present day China don't export ideology , but people in the west had seen the effectiveness of Socialism with Chinese Characteristic and its value, that is were the demonization from Western MSM and gov't came from, they're afraid that their jigs is up and the people may arise and take power thru other means like an armed resurrection or violent revolution. That is why their propaganda is heating up especially with high tech company deplatforming domestic dissent and opinion there fore controlling the narrative.

 

[KYli]

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[gadgetcool5]

China's retail, catering sales jump in Lunar New Year staycation​

China’s retail and catering sectors enjoyed a bumper Lunar New Year holiday week, with revenues rising almost one-third from 2020 levels thanks to strong orders from staycationing consumers, the commerce ministry said on Wednesday.

Sales by key retail and catering companies, including online, came in at 821 billion yuan ($127 billion) from Feb. 11-17, the Ministry of Commerce said. That was up 28.7% from the Lunar New Year holiday in 2020, when the coronavirus started to spread across China, and up 4.9% from 2019 levels.

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[KYli]

So desperate.

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[Hendrik_2000]

So desperate.

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The usual hubris like this
Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, agreed China could continue to lag behind the U.S. economy.

"This is possible since average real GDP growth in China could well hover around 2.5 percent in 2035 and onwards, which will mean that China would stop converging with the U.S. and maybe even diverging," she told Newsweek.

"The fall of the labor force is one reason but also decelerating productivity," she added.

But between now and 2035 if the Chinese economy grew by average of 6% then it is more than enough to catch up

 

[KYli]

The usual hubris like this
Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, agreed China could continue to lag behind the U.S. economy.

"This is possible since average real GDP growth in China could well hover around 2.5 percent in 2035 and onwards, which will mean that China would stop converging with the U.S. and maybe even diverging," she told Newsweek.

"The fall of the labor force is one reason but also decelerating productivity," she added.

But between now and 2035 if the Chinese economy grew by average of 6% then it is more than enough to catch up

China doens't even need to grow 6%. Just need to be around 5%. If Yuan appreciates, then China would overtake the US before 2027.

 

[Deleted member 15887]

So desperate.

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This is the graph for their justifcation:


I actually agree with them regarding their projection of China's predicted GDP at current market prices; it should be at around ~$40 trillion USD ballpark by 2035, give or take. Where their wrong is the insane projections for the US; are they are seriously thinking the US will be growing at such high rates? They are predicting the US GDP to grow more in 5 years than it did for the past 20 years. No other instituion thinks the US will grow that fast, not least the IMF nor the Fed. Also funny is the extrapolation of exponential growth for the US at ~3-4% while it thinks China will slow down to mere 2.5% growth by 2035; its probably going to be closer to 4-5%, but even if it isn't, you can't say the US will grow continuously at 3+% unabated and five-fold for the next 30 years. At best, it will double by 2040.

 

[j17wang]

This is the graph for their justifcation:
View attachment 68980

I actually agree with them regarding their projection of China's predicted GDP at current market prices; it should be at around ~$40 trillion USD ballpark by 2035, give or take. Where their wrong is the insane projections for the US; are they are seriously thinking the US will be growing at such high rates? They are predicting the US GDP to grow more in 5 years than it did for the past 20 years. No other instituion thinks the US will grow that fast, not least the IMF nor the Fed. Also funny is the extrapolation of exponential growth for the US at ~3-4% while it thinks China will slow down to mere 2.5% growth by 2035; its probably going to be closer to 4-5%, but even if it isn't, you can't say the US will grow continuously at 3+% unabated and five-fold for the next 30 years. At best, it will double by 2040.

The US one is in fact almost impossible. Remember, the US is facing declining population growth (in fact it has been hit much harder than China by COVID). You can't also say the US will accept more immigrants because i) relative attractiveness of US as an immigration destination is in long-term decline (at least relative to Canada, UK, Australia, Middle east) ii) attractiveness of immigrating out from other traditional target countries decrease as poorer countries converge in GDP iii) population growth is actually declining in developing countries at faster rates, which means there is less people to immigrate out assuming i) and ii) are false.

I dont think the $80BN figure of china's GDP is wrong at ~$60K GDP per capita at ~1.3BN people. The calc for the US requires 500 million people at $200,000 GDP per capita in 30 years, which statistically is impossible. That's 180 million more people and more than tripling of GDP from $63,000 in 2021.

America better get working then...

 

[solarz]

It’s not just about economics though. Communism is again fashionable among the youth. Mao is far more popular on the Chinese internet than he was 10 years ago.

Success is always fashionable.