China is running out of phosphate deposits in 20 years at the current rate of production. Food self-sufficiency is a joke when you will soon have to rely on others for essential fertilisers.
Most of the data for phosphate rock production quoted so far comes from the USGS mineral commodity summary publications. So why don't we go directly to the USGS publications instead?
I will add a hypothetical "Years of Reserves Remaining" column based on (Reserves)/(Mine Production Estimated Year). I'm not going to include all the countries.
2021 Publication under Phosphate Rocks:
| Country | Mine Production 2019 | Mine Production 2020 Estimated | Reserves | Years of Reserves Remaining |
| United States | 23,300 | 24,000 | 1,000,000 | 41.6 |
| China | 95,000 | 90,000 | 3,200,000 | 35.5 |
| India | 1,480 | 1,500 | 46,000 | 30.6 |
| Morocco and Western Sahara | 35,500 | 37,000 | 50,000,000 | 1,351.1 |
| Russia | 13,100 | 13,000 | 600,000 | 46.15 |
| World total (rounded) | 227,000 | 223,000 | 71,000,000 | 318.3 |
2020 Publication under Phosphate Rocks:
| Country | Mine Production 2018 | Mine Production 2019 Estimated | Reserves | Years of Reserves Remaining |
| United States | 25,800 | 23,000 | 1,000,000 | 43.4 |
| China | 120,000 | 110,000 | 3,200,000 | 29.0 |
| India | 1,600 | 1,600 | 46,000 | 28.7 |
| Morocco and Western Sahara | 34,800 | 36,000 | 50,000,000 | 1,388.8 |
| Russia | 14,000 | 14,000 | 600,000 | 42.8 |
| World total (rounded) | 249,000 | 240,000 | 69,000,000 | 287.5 |
2019 Publication under Phosphate Rocks:
| Country | Mine Production 2017 | Mine Production 2018 Estimated | Reserves | Years of Reserves Remaining |
| United States | 27,900 | 27,000 | 1,000,000 | 37.0 |
| China | 144,000 | 140,000 | 3,200,000 | 22.8 |
| India | 1,590 | 1,600 | 46,000 | 28.7 |
| Morocco and Western Sahara | 30,000 | 33,000 | 50,000,000 | 1,515.1 |
| Russia | 13,300 | 13,000 | 600,000 | 46.1 |
| World total (rounded) | 269,000 | 270,000 | 70,000,000 | 259.2 |
2018 Publication under Phosphate Rocks:
| Country | Mine Production 2016 | Mine Production 2017 Estimated | Reserves | Years of Reserves Remaining |
| United States | 27,100 | 27,700 | 1,000,000 | 36.1 |
| China | 135,000 | 140,000 | 3,300,000 | 23.5 |
| India | 2,000 | 1,800 | 65,000 | 36.1 |
| Morocco and Western Sahara | 26,900 | 27,000 | 50,000,000 | 1,851.8 |
| Russia | 12,400 | 12,500 | 700,000 | 56 |
| World total (rounded) | 255,000 | 263,000 | 70,000,000 | 266.1 |
2017 Publication under Phosphate Rocks:
| Country | Mine Production 2015 | Mine Production 2016 Estimated | Reserves | Years of Reserves Remaining |
| United States | 27,400 | 27,800 | 1,100,000 | 39.5 |
| China | 120,000 | 138,000 | 3,100,000 | 22.4 |
| India | 1,500 | 1,500 | 65,000 | 43.3 |
| Morocco and Western Sahara | 29,000 | 30,000 | 50,000,000 | 1,666.6 |
| Russia | 11,600 | 11,600 | 1,300,000 | 112.0 |
| World total (rounded) | 241,000 | 261,000 | 68,000,000 | 260.5 |
Notice a pattern? The phosphate rock reserve number from the 2017 publication to the 2021 publication isn't decreasing significantly for almost all the countries in the list. Notice that Russia's reserves are at 1,300,000 in the 2017 publication, but is at 600,000 in the 2021 publication. Yet Russia mined less than 100,000 during the period! This is because reserves is not equivalent to resources.
In the 2017 publication China had reserves of 3,100,000. In the 2021 publication China's reserves was at 3,200,000. Between 2015-2019 China produced about 614,000. If the reserve figure in the 2017 was finite then China's reserves would have decreased over the five year period to 2,500,000. But it didn't. This is true for other countries in the publication as well.
Reserves:
Reserve Base.—That part of an identified resource that meets specified minimum physical and chemical criteria related to current mining and production practices, including those for grade, quality, thickness, and depth. The reserve base is the in-place demonstrated (measured plus indicated) resource from which reserves are estimated. It may encompass those parts of the resources that have a reasonable potential for becoming economically available within planning horizons beyond those that assume proven technology and current economics. The reserve base includes those resources that are currently economic (reserves), marginally economic (marginal reserves), and some of those that are currently subeconomic (subeconomic resources). The term “geologic reserve” has been applied by others generally to the reserve-base category, but it also may include the inferred-reserve-base category; it is not a part of this classification system.
Inferred Reserve Base.—The in-place part of an identified resource from which inferred reserves are estimated. Quantitative estimates are based largely on knowledge of the geologic character of a deposit and for which there may be nosamples or measurements. The estimates are based on an assumed continuity beyond the reserve base, for which there is geologic evidence.
Reserves.—That part of the reserve base that could be economically extracted or produced at the time of determination. The term “reserves”need not signify that extraction facilities are in place and operative. Reserves include only recoverable materials; thus, terms such as “extractable reserves” and “recoverable reserves” are redundant and are not a part of this classification system.
Resources:
Identified Resources.—Resources for which location, grade, quality, and quantity are known or estimated from specific geologic evidence. Identified resources include economic, marginally economic, and subeconomic components. To reflect varying degrees of geologic certainty, these economic divisions can be subdivided into measured, indicated, and inferred.
Undiscovered Resources.—Resources, the existence of which are only postulated, comprising deposits that are separate from identified resources. Undiscovered resources may be postulated in deposits of such grade and physical location as to render them economic, marginally economic, or subeconomic. To reflect varying degrees of geologic certainty, undiscovered resources may be divided into two parts, as follows:
Hypothetical Resources.—Undiscovered resources that are similar to known mineral bodies and that may be reasonably expected to exist in the same producing district or region under analogous geologic conditions.If exploration confirms their existence and reveals enough information abouttheir quality, grade, and quantity, they will be reclassified as identified resources.
Speculative Resources.—Undiscovered resources that may occur either in known types of deposits in favorable geologic settings where mineral discoveries have not been made, or in types of deposits as yet unrecognized for their economic potential. If exploration confirms their existence and reveals enough information about their quantity, grade, and quality, they will be reclassified as identified resources.
:
| Country | Metric Tons | Year |
| 1. Brazil | 3,178,167 | 2018 |
| 2. India | 2,241,303 | 2018 |
| 3. United States | 1,115,866 | 2018 |
| 4. Indonesia | 955,910 | 2018 |
| 5. Pakistan | 770,376 | 2018 |
| 6. Canada | 718,544 | 2018 |
| 7. Australia | 708,291 | 2018 |
| 8. Argentina | 600,547 | 2018 |
| 9. Vietnam | 523,188 | 2018 |
| 10. Ukraine | 506,602 | 2018 |
| China | 142,258 | 2018 |
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