Chinese Economics Thread

[siegecrossbow]

From what I've heard from my mom, who used high speed rail to travel between Shanghai and Nanjing last year, the story of "half empty trains" was only valid for very early or very late departures. The trains are absolutely packed during any other time. Not that high speed trains don't have problems though. One of the main complaints was that the high speed trains stopped at too many stops during the Nanjing to Shanghai trips and the average velocity ended up being around the same as that of the "Dong Che". I think they've fixed that after the rail department got a lot of complaints.

 

[i.e.]

Yeah late and early departures will be "half empty"

rest of the time it could be pretty full.

The goal was always to link the whole entire yangtze delta region into one Giant integrated economic and social machine. this is slowing coming to be true. ever watch fields of dreams? kevin costner? Build it and they will come.

as for HSR stopping too many times,
some trains would stop all the time, some trains are direct. I think.
it's kinda funny, it took about half an hour to get from Shanghai Hongqiao to Suzhou. and there are another stop along the way, some people who got on didn;t even bother to sit down and just stood next to the door for 15 mins. It is almost like a subway for them.

 

[solarz]

Damn, when I was in Shanghai in 2010, I visited the Expo and saw their plan to build a train station at the Hong Qiao airport. And less than a year later, it's operational?? F--- Hell, we've been trying to get a new subway line built in Toronto for over 10 years, and they haven't even started construction yet!!!

How long is the trip from Shanghai to Hangzhou now?

And I laughed at the "new local airport" from Roubini. When I first came to Canada over 20 years ago, I flew out of Shanghai from the Hong Qiao airport. New airport? It's Shanghai's first and oldest airport! I guess NR never set foot in Shanghai before the advent of Pudong airport.

The brand new high-speed train is half-empty and the brand new station is three-quarters empty. Parallel to that train line, there is a also a new highway that looked three-quarters empty.

You mean for once I don't have to rush through crowds, wait in huge line-ups, sit in a crowded train, or get stuck in traffic when I'm in Shanghai? Oh the horror!

 

[AssassinsMace]

The forum where I got this news about Nouriel Roubini being caught in lies was being played like a game for those who can count how many errors in that article. For me I only knew that the maglev line didn't go to Hangzhou. I knew they were planning it but decided to go the HSR route. That seemed like yesterday and they have it running already?

It makes me wonder if some of these people are getting paid to say certain things. The stock market is ruled by rumor. Jim Rogers recently said in an interview that James Chanos must be losing a lot of money since he went public shorting China. And everytime there's a flurry of "China is headed for collapse" stories, he's being mentioned or interviewed. Interesting to see if Nouriel Roubini has been seen with Chanos of late. And we know Chanos is basing all his information from Gordan Chang who seems to be behind the China buying Facebook story. Maybe Chanos thinks he can manipulate the market learning from how Soros sparked the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.

 

[Red Moon]

Did you hear about Nouriel Roubini being caught in a lie about his bleek China outlook recently? Apparently he took a maglev train ride from Shanghai to Hangzhou that he said was half empty. Problem is there is no maglev train from Shanghai to Hangzhou. Not even sure the HSR line has been completed yet. Does anyone know? Of course the mainstream media is not going to point this out.

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Well, the "maglev" part was put in by the journalist, not by Roubini, who just spoke about a "high speed train". But yes, I think he's full of sh*t anyway.
You know, Paul Krugman wrote much better articles before he got the Nobel prize. He was criticizing policies in his own country, not those of China or of European countries.

 

[bladerunner]

I read a article recently maybe it was even in this forum. Essentially it was about the negative and positive views on China .In essence the article was saying that despite which position one took one could still make money. Futhermore the article mentioned Chanos who is claiming to be doing very nicely from shorting Chinese stocks.
Well time will tell on whether he is B.S. After all he has to report to his investors right.

 

[petty officer1]

I just read a piece from William Pesek of Bloomberg. He painted the stereotypical view of China where women are held down. It's amazing how someone like him can outright lie and have a job in journalism. According to him what the article below says could not happen.

William Pesek is the same idiot that wrote this article。

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His analysis are amature at best，while bring up unrelevant micro-social events as Yakuza， he can some how relates them to the Macroeconomic future of Japan。Yes Mr。 Pesek Japanese goverment is in a fiscal crisis， yes exports are dropping due to the earthquake and a rising Yen。 But how about the Gini coeffient of 38？How about the HDI ranking？ How about inflation of less than 1%？How about the 4.7% unemplyment rate？So next time you write an article criticizing a nation’s economy，that of Japan，China or US，read up on some numbers and stats and put those in your articles instead of something that reads like a tablod news paper。

Did you hear about Nouriel Roubini being caught in a lie about his bleek China outlook recently? Apparently he took a maglev train ride from Shanghai to Hangzhou that he said was half empty. Problem is there is no maglev train from Shanghai to Hangzhou. Not even sure the HSR line has been completed yet. Does anyone know? Of course the mainstream media is not going to point this out.

Nothing new， financial writters are all alike。This is how financial ”gurus“ works， they say a lot of good things and a lot of bad things。When they are right， they jump up and say ”I told you so。” when they are wrong you don‘t hear a beat from them。

About his thoughts about fix-asset investment or over investing as he stated。 He failed to mention how much pressure urbanization have been put on China。As most Chinese know the cost of transportation of goods across China have been rising for the past 10 years。 infrastructure growth is a must for the continuation of Chinese urbanization and industrialization。 And I have to ask， where did he get the 50% investment number？How much of that is on developing of new and better hospitals and schools，fixing cities’ underwater system，developing subway to lighten the traffic flow in the major cities，developing road into the country side。Not all fix-asset investment is on commercial real-estate you know。 And all those infrastructure developments are made to make the country‘s economic activity more efficient， it’s future economic returns are massive and can not be simply calculated in the present term。Not mentioning how much cheap bus and subway can decrease the travel cost of middle class in the cities when they can‘t afford cars and its increasing gasline price， in doing so free up more cash on saving for a raining day and spending on consumer goods。China’s infrastructure development is not perfect and sometimes extremly wasteful， but it is sure better than buying 10YR T-bill and yield a 4.18% or worse，siting on those cash and wait to get blow away by inflation and possible devaluation of the Dollar。 Infrastructure　“over” development is a problem we wish we have here in Texas。

bladerunner

I read a article recently maybe it was even in this forum. Essentially it was about the negative and positive views on China .In essence the article was saying that despite which position one took one could still make money. Futhermore the article mentioned Chanos who is claiming to be doing very nicely from shorting Chinese stocks.
Well time will tell on whether he is B.S. After all he has to report to his investors right.

Yes， the same people that short Chinese micro-cap companies that lack hard assets （media companies for example）， which can be easily diluted on the faintest rumors， yet the same people loads up on big mommath Chinese state owned companies such as Petrochina （PTR）into their portfolios。 I know too many of those China “bear”，the truth is they are not having negative views on China， they are just opportunists that want to make some money。

 

[bd popeye]

petty officer 1..Welcome back to SDF!! Happy to know you are still among the living!

 

[petty officer1]

Thanks popeye，I still read the forum every other day， I just don‘t comment much due to my personal lack of military knowledge，since I only have a finance-economic background。But I have learned a lot in this forum。Thanks to all members and moderators‘ professional attitude and hard works，I believe Sinodefence will maintain its sound reputation far into the future。

 

[bd popeye]

Thank you sir!