Chinese Economics Thread

PUFF_DRAGON

New Member
Registered Member
I guess Japan and other US stooges have no option but to bag hold more and more for their owner.

Japan and China both lost like $100 billion over 12 months tho.

US got like $700 billion for free...

In the case of Japan, their sovereign yields are even more negative. So holding negative yield US treasuries means they lose less cash flow.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
What they are building are a Trunk line right now there are 2 trunk line north-south and east-west. The north south trunk line is supplied by long term contract with Russia and east-west trunk line is supplied by central asia. I then they are connected to the existing pipe network. But over the year China has built all kind of pipe line criss crossing the province and socalled gas hub. Natural gas transportation is still the cheapest way to transport the gas that is why China gas pipeline grew with every years. It is also the safest way to transport the gas since mostly are underground and unmanned except for gas hub. It can be be remotely monitor and isolated in case of accident or leak. Once you built the pipeline there is no more cost maintenance is negligible.

Strategically it is the safest since they are impervious to embargo China learn the hard lesson in WWII when Japan blockade the eastern seaboard and fuel has to be transported thru Burma road.

Transport by LNG is expensive and depend on freight rate that can change depending on the market. It is strategically vulnerable since it can be blocked. You also have to built storage, regassification plant, handling facilities all of them are vulnerable to attack

But LNG can complement the basic natural gas pipe line and maybe the best choice for coastal cities since they have existing facilities , storage, plant etc. I am not sure if the northern passage is already operational but again you depend on the vagaries of weather what happened if they have sever winter and the passage is blocked?

China has built large gas pipeline infrastructure over the year concentrating on the big industrial province like Sichuan, Here is the map. this map is old as it does not show north south trunk line
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1608133582168.png

Here is newer map
1608133840155.png
 

bajingan

Senior Member
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I agree with this article, China needs to urgently diversify iron ore sources away from australia, there is even an indication that they have started to manipulate iron ore prices
As australia is controlled by cia operatives there is no guarantee that there won't be iron ore embargo
China also need to support guinea government against cia destabilization attemps, because i can guarantee the us will try to choke the supply of vital commodities to China
 
D

Deleted member 15887

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More bullish than my forecast surprisingly. Also, Richard Neal, a US Congressman, recognized this too:
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“Meanwhile, China is on track to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy as soon as 2024, according to the World Economic Forum.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Work smarter not harder.
I suspect they have a higher degree of automation.
Also, I wouldn't put much faith into those OECD numbers.

Problem is underlying structural/policies issues in the Chinese economy.

High food prices, high real estate prices, import tariffs, RMB weakness

It's not like the cashier in Italy some how does 6x the work as the Chinese cashier. The Italian produces 6x the profit due to greater economic freedom of the Eurozone. I don't think Italian high tech is much better than Chinese?

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Actually I was looking at the Economic Complexity index and China's economy is top 20 (Italy is at 14):
1608174275980.png




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I would say China's GDP is artificially suppressed for its tech level:
1608174654516.png
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
I think it will still take some time before some economic changes happen organically in the Chinese economy.
Also, like I said, don't trust the OECD working hours numbers. They seem bogus to me.
Never heard that Italians have more free time than French.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Power of Siberia 2 won't finish until 2031 and still have to talk with Mongolia about it.

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It will reach Beijing and Tianjin but what about the rest?

View attachment 66594

Power of Siberia 1 won't reach Shanghai until 2024. Even then, that's still only a select number of cities and regions accessing the line.
...

Western China still has to rely on Central Asian pipeline.

View attachment 66595

That still leaves large portions of the country that you may have to serve by ship.

Pipelines are a huge development for China-Russian relations, and using more LNG means less pollution and less reliance on imported coal. Its a win-win for Sino-Rus, and a huge loss to US, Australian, Canadian and Middle East fossil fuel industries.

Well but most of the population of China lives along the coast in the East. The problem with the Central Asian pipeline is precisely that.

The natural gas imports help in the sense that they will displace usage of coal for electricity, heating, and industrial applications.
The imports from Russia using Power of Siberia will improve air quality in Northeastern China by displacing coal. This is an historical heartland for heavy industry in China and was traditionally heavily polluted as a result.

I think in Southeastern China there are more diverse sources of energy available. For one there are vast hydrological basins so the potential for hydroelectric, especially in the Southcentral area, is really high. Second the climate is milder in a lot of places so the usage of energy for heating is decreased. Countries like Laos and Vietnam have huge hydroelectric potential too and could in the future export to China as well. Finally there have been huge investments into nuclear power in coastal areas which will also offset coal.

In the interest of self-sufficiency the effect of displacing coal is not that important since most of the coal used for heating and power in China is Chinese. The importance of natural gas is in improving the air quality in large cities. I think the electrification of transport is more important in the long term because it will displace the use of oil for transportation.

With regards to Power of Siberia 2 there is little reason to think Mongolia won't be interested in the pipeline as well. Their capital burns coal and has terrible air quality. It has been an issue in Mongolia for decades and it has only gotten worse as the population of Mongolia keeps migrating to the capital.
 
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