Chinese Economics Thread

Maggern

Junior Member
China largest economy by PPP?

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Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- China overtook the U.S. last year as the world’s biggest economy when measured in terms of purchasing power, according to Arvind Subramanian, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

The size of China’s economy in 2010 was $14.8 trillion, compared with the U.S.’s $14.6 trillion, when accounting for the countries’ differing costs of living, Subramanian wrote in a note published yesterday, a week before President Hu Jintao visits Washington. So-called purchasing power parity calculates gross domestic product using exchange rates that adjusts for price differences of the same goods between nations.

Growth in the world’s most populous nation has averaged 10.3 percent a year over the past decade, nearly six times faster than the U.S. China was the biggest auto market for the second year running, created the world’s fastest supercomputer and was ranked the biggest user of energy in 2010.

A poll of Americans ahead of a summit of Hu and President Barack Obama next week, found some 47 percent said China is the leading economic power with 31 percent naming the U.S., according to the Washington-based Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. A February 2008 Pew Poll found 41 percent of Americans considered the U.S. the top economic power, with 30 percent naming China.

Prior Estimates

Subramanian said his calculations are based on new estimates of GDP that will soon be published by the Penn World Tables, which correct biases in previous estimates by the International Comparison of Prices project and the World Bank that underestimated China’s purchasing power.

Adjustments have also been made to take account of a different estimate for appreciation in China’s currency compared with that made by the International Monetary Fund, Subramanian said.

China’s GDP per capita, which reflects the average standard of living, would increase to $11,047 from the $7,518 estimated by the IMF in its World Economic Outlook, according to Subramanian’s calculations. That would still leave the U.S.’s GDP per capita 4.3 times higher than China’s, he said.

In nominal terms, China’s output in 2009 was 34 trillion yuan, or $5 trillion, at average exchange rates that year, trailing the U.S.’s $12.9 trillion.

--Nerys Avery. With assistance from Li Yanping, Kevin Hamlin and Mike Forsythe in Beijing. Editors: Brendan Murray, Lily Nonomiya

PS: Here is the original academic piece:
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Martian

Senior Member
China's 2010 GDP hits U.S. $6 trillion

If we use the current exchange rate, China's 2010 GDP hit U.S. $6 trillion (e.g. 39.5 trillion Yuans / 6.5997 Yuan per dollar = U.S. $5.99 trillion).

However, the accepted method of calculating GDP is to use the 12-month average of the currency exchange rate. For 2010, the average exchange rate was 6.7692 Yuan per U.S. dollar (see
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). The official GDP for China in 2010 will be U.S. $5.84 trillion.

China's National Bureau of Statistics has shown a historical pattern of revising China's GDP upwards later in the year. For all intents and purposes, China's 2010 GDP is within a hair's breadth of U.S. $6 trillion.

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"UPDATE 1-China's economy grew 10.1 pct in 2010 -official
Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:22am EST

* China 2010 GDP rises 10.1 pct to 39.5 trln yuan-official

* Says China faces pressure to meet 4% CPI target this year

BEIJING, Jan 15 (Reuters) - The Chinese economy grew around 10.1 percent last year, the deputy head of China's top economic planning agency told Reuters on Saturday, which amounts to the fastest pace of annual growth in three years.

Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said the country's gross domestic product totalled about 39.5 trillion yuan ($6 trillion) in 2010.

The 2010 growth rate accelerated from a revised 9.2 percent expansion seen in 2009.

But Zhang noted that China may struggle to meet its 2011 inflation target of 4 percent as domestic labour costs climb and global commodity prices soar.

"There are many factors that are putting upward pressure on domestic prices, and we must note that imported inflation is intensifying this year," he said at a trade forum.

Zhang reiterated the government aims for growth this year of 8 percent in China's economy, the world's biggest, but stressed that the task of keeping prices stable will top Beijing's agenda.

He said uncertainties around the pace of recovery in the world economy could weigh on China's key export sector in 2011.

"We may face big difficulties in growing our exports in the future," he said.

To get around that, Zhang said, Chinese exporters should endeavour to move up the manufacturing value chain and place less emphasis on volume and more on quality.

His assessment of China's outlook is less upbeat than that of China's Commerce Minister Chen Deming.

Chen said on Friday China's exports and imports will grow at a faster pace this year than in 2010.

Chinese exports jumped around 31 percent in 2010 from a year ago, while imports leapt nearly 39 percent. (Reporting by Aileen Wang and Koh Gui Qing, editing by Jane Baird)"

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"China's yuan hits new record high at 6.5997 per USD
English.news.cn 2011-01-13 10:52:04

BEIJING, Jan. 13 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese yuan strengthened to a record high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday to reach 6.5997 per dollar.

The central parity rate of the Chinese currency, also known as the renminbi (RMB), was set 131 basis points lower than Wednesday's 6.6128, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System. (story continues)"
 

jantxv

New Member
Almost all nations face economic challenges, but some people are starting to question the PRC figures.

The following is from Forbes.
Three Big Risks to China's Economy In 2011
Shaun Rein, 01.05.11, 12:45 PM EST
China's leaders may be optimistic, but they face serious challenges.

full article:
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Despite the optimism and can-do attitude of China's leaders, they have some big problems to address in 2011 if they want to maintain high levels of public support and preserve their nation's place as the world's second superpower.

First, rising inflation is a serious problem, as I mentioned to Martin Soong on a recent CNBC Squawk Box appearance. Even though official inflation was 5.1% in November, every day the Chinese feel much more of a squeeze than that number indicates, as prices of cooking oil, eggs and apples have all risen 10% to 20% in the last six months.

Unofficial inflation of 20% in food, where most Chinese spend their money, outpacing government GDP increases, how does this improve the quality of life for the average citizen? GDP is good, but is it real growth or is it just growth in empty luxury apartments that are bought for investment only, a dangerous real-estate bubble?

There is no question that the PRC has dramatically improved the quality of life of many Chinese. What is worrisome is a distorted GDP growth that is unsustainable. If the real estate bubble bursts, many people will loose fortunes, what can be done to correct this?
 

nameless

Junior Member
Almost all nations face economic challenges, but some people are starting to question the PRC figures.

The following is from Forbes.
Three Big Risks to China's Economy In 2011
Shaun Rein, 01.05.11, 12:45 PM EST
China's leaders may be optimistic, but they face serious challenges.

full article:
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Unofficial inflation of 20% in food, where most Chinese spend their money, outpacing government GDP increases, how does this improve the quality of life for the average citizen? GDP is good, but is it real growth or is it just growth in empty luxury apartments that are bought for investment only, a dangerous real-estate bubble?

There is no question that the PRC has dramatically improved the quality of life of many Chinese. What is worrisome is a distorted GDP growth that is unsustainable. If the real estate bubble bursts, many people will loose fortunes, what can be done to correct this?

Actually wages are rising fast and there are even labor shortages. Not to mention increase in reserve ratio, interest rate hikes and more low income housing.
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GUANGZHOU - Liu Jingchun, a 28-year-old packing worker from Xiamen, Fujian province, has just rejected a job offer that would have paid him 1,500 yuan ($227) a month - and a 500 yuan bonus - if he stayed on for at least three months.

He is confident that another better-paying job will come along in a very short time, thanks to a severe labor shortage facing China's coastal region.

"The wages are rocketing up due to the shortage," Liu said at the Xiamen Employment Service Center.

Reserve ratio increase

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Interest rate hike

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Also if you think PRC figures are unreliable then you should look at the American CPI figures, that thing looks like pure propaganda. Do you realize how absurd is it that the Fed is keeping the interest rate at zero. Bernanke is only creating a new bubble and undermining the financial stability of the US economy.
 
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zoom

Junior Member
I've never been a fan of Forbes with regards to their reporting on China as they have been wrong so many times in the past and have a definite anti-China bias .(At least some of their columnists.)Sure China have huge challenges to overcome but doesn't most countries.Right now if i could be any country in the world ,i would be China.Anyway here is some positive news >

BEIJING - Chinese geologists have detected "super-thick" oil and gas-bearing stratums in the northern part of the South China Sea and identified 38 offshore oil and gas-bearing basins, a senior official said on Saturday.

The outskirts of Songliao Basin in Northeast China, Yin'e Basin in North China and Qiangtang Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have also been found to have rich oil and gas resources, Wang Min, vice-minister of land and resources, said at a national conference in Beijing.

In addition, 192.7 billion tons of coal resources have been found in Northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, and four 10,000-ton sandstone-type uranium mines have been located in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, he said.

Wang said these latest discoveries, particularly those at sea, have given direction for China's future resource exploration.

Conducting more geological inspections at the above regions has been set as one of the ministry's major working tasks this year.

Comprehensive geological and environmental inspections will be conducted at key offshore areas such as the southern region of Yellow Sea, the northern part of the South China Sea, East China's Liaodong Bay and regions near South China's Hainan Island, according to the ministry.

Wang said the country has also made a breakthrough in locating new energy resources. Natural gas hydrate has been found for the first time in the northern region of the South China Sea and frozen-soil areas at Qilian Mountain.

And a 2.46-million-ton lithium carbonate mine has been located in Southwest China's Tibet autonomous region, which will reduce the cost of lithium production and help with the country's new energy industry.

Due to China's rapid economic growth in the past 10 years, the country's energy consumption has been growing rapidly and become more dependent on imports.

Right now, China has become the biggest consumer of coal, steel, alumina, copper and cement.

More than half of the country's petroleum and iron consumption, about 70 percent of its copper consumption and 64 percent of sylvite consumption now rely on imports, according to figures released by the Ministry of Land and Recourses on Saturday.

Wang said thanks to the efforts of the geologists, new resources detected in the past 10 years accounted for about half of all resources found in the past half century, and the amount of new resources found each year has surpassed their annual consumption.

For instance, by the end of last year, the available reserves of iron and aluminum increased by 41 percent and 39 percent compared with the levels in 1999.

However, China will still experience resource bottlenecks in the future, Wang said.

"As a big developing country, we must make more efforts in exploring domestic supplies to ensure our energy security," Wang said.

China in the next five years will also have closer international cooperation on geological work and set up a global mining resource information database to help Chinese enterprises better survey and explore overseas resources, the ministry said, without giving more details.
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tphuang

Lieutenant General
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Almost all nations face economic challenges, but some people are starting to question the PRC figures.

The following is from Forbes.
Three Big Risks to China's Economy In 2011
Shaun Rein, 01.05.11, 12:45 PM EST
China's leaders may be optimistic, but they face serious challenges.

full article:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!




Unofficial inflation of 20% in food, where most Chinese spend their money, outpacing government GDP increases, how does this improve the quality of life for the average citizen? GDP is good, but is it real growth or is it just growth in empty luxury apartments that are bought for investment only, a dangerous real-estate bubble?

There is no question that the PRC has dramatically improved the quality of life of many Chinese. What is worrisome is a distorted GDP growth that is unsustainable. If the real estate bubble bursts, many people will loose fortunes, what can be done to correct this?
Every country in this world has had distorted GDP growth in the past 10 years from real estate bubbles. Why do you think Spain, Portugal and Ireland are having this much problem now? In the same way, Canada and Australia have serious real estate bubble that will tank the economy very soon in the near future. There is also a huge real estate bubble in India. Of course there is a huge bubble in China too. Not just housing, but also in having too much high speed rail way, wind power and such. However, China actually produces real stuff for the rest of the world. Even if the bubble bursts, it still sits on a huge reserve and produces cheap products for itself + everyone else.

That's what you have in capitalism, boom and bust cycles. You need the bust to correct the distortions in the economy.
Actually wages are rising fast and there are even labor shortages. Not to mention increase in reserve ratio, interest rate hikes and more low income housing.
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Reserve ratio increase

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Interest rate hike

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Also if you think PRC figures are unreliable then you should look at the American CPI figures, that thing looks like pure propaganda. Do you realize how absurd is it that the Fed is keeping the interest rate at zero. Bernanke is only creating a new bubble and undermining the financial stability of the US economy.
every government lies to its citizens. What else is new?

There is no real labour shortage in China. If they raise those wages or move their operations in land, there are plenty of people willing to work in the country.
 

Red Moon

Junior Member
Almost all nations face economic challenges, but some people are starting to question the PRC figures.

The following is from Forbes.
Three Big Risks to China's Economy In 2011
Shaun Rein, 01.05.11, 12:45 PM EST
China's leaders may be optimistic, but they face serious challenges.

full article:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!




Unofficial inflation of 20% in food, where most Chinese spend their money, outpacing government GDP increases, how does this improve the quality of life for the average citizen? GDP is good, but is it real growth or is it just growth in empty luxury apartments that are bought for investment only, a dangerous real-estate bubble?

There is no question that the PRC has dramatically improved the quality of life of many Chinese. What is worrisome is a distorted GDP growth that is unsustainable. If the real estate bubble bursts, many people will loose fortunes, what can be done to correct this?

You are misreading the article, I think. Food inflation is much higher than 5.1% (November figure), but overall, I think its 8 point something. The author lists cooking oil, eggs and apples as rising between 10% and 20%. That may well be true, without the government figures being wrong, either for overall inflation or food inflation.

This certainly is a problem, but food prices will come back down like they did before. It has to do with weather factors, global commodity speculation, and yes, too much loose money worldwide. Their "core" inflation, the American term for cpi w/out food and fuel prices, is significantly lower than 5.1% because food makes up 1/3 of the basket for cpi computation.

As to a real estate bubble, the thing is that there is a lot of demand for housing in China. Those who have been warehousing apartments may loose a fortune, but that will not affect the poor or middle earners.
 

nameless

Junior Member
every government lies to its citizens. What else is new?

There is no real labour shortage in China. If they raise those wages or move their operations in land, there are plenty of people willing to work in the country.

No, what the US is doing has serious implications for its financial system and the USD as the reserve currency of the world, and not to mention the lack of willingness to deal with these problems. Its not simply as just another one of those lies as you put it.
As for the Labor shortages in China, it is real, where do you think all those migrant workers came from in the first place? The move to inland would cause wages to rise as well.
 

Quickie

Colonel
Almost all nations face economic challenges, but some people are starting to question the PRC figures.

The following is from Forbes.
Three Big Risks to China's Economy In 2011
Shaun Rein, 01.05.11, 12:45 PM EST
China's leaders may be optimistic, but they face serious challenges.

full article:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!




Unofficial inflation of 20% in food, where most Chinese spend their money, outpacing government GDP increases, how does this improve the quality of life for the average citizen? GDP is good, but is it real growth or is it just growth in empty luxury apartments that are bought for investment only, a dangerous real-estate bubble?

There is no question that the PRC has dramatically improved the quality of life of many Chinese. What is worrisome is a distorted GDP growth that is unsustainable. If the real estate bubble bursts, many people will loose fortunes, what can be done to correct this?

Would a property bust in China really be as bad as that of the U.S. ? Wouldn't that make real estate property much more affordable to a segment of the people who couldn't have afforded it otherwise? What's more important is that the banks are able to withstand the bust and there are real demand for properties from this segment of people who'll then minimise the losses in banks and that of the investors. Also, property demand should not be a problem with the rural-to-urban migration for quite some time to come.

On another note, this report on China's electricity consumption is consistent with the report that China's GDP in purchasing parity terms is already larger than the U.S.'s.



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China's electricity consumption jumps 14.56% in 2010

English.news.cn 2011-01-17 09:33:21 FeedbackPrintRSS

BEIJING, Jan. 17 (Xinhua) -- China's electricity consumption maintained its steady growth last year, up 14.56 percent year on year to well over 4.19 trillion kWh, the China Electricity Council (CEC) said Monday.

The electricity consumption growth rate was 8.12 percentage points higher than the previous year, said a statement from the CEC.

Consumption by manufacturing and industrial sectors increased 15.44 percent year on year to about 3.09 trillion kWh last year, boosted by the country's steady and sound economic growth, said the statement.

Investment in China's electricity industry, however, dropped 8.45 percent from a year earlier to 705.1 billion yuan (107 billion U.S. dollars) last year.

The statement said China had improved its power generating structure last year with more electricity generated from non-fossil resources.

At the end of last year, installed power generating capacity was up 10.07 percent year on year to 962 million kilowatts.

About 26.53 percent of China's installed generating capacity came from the non-fossil sectors, of which 213.4 million kilowatts was from hydro power, 10.82 million kilowatts from nuclear power and 31.07 million kilowatts from wind power, said the statement.

The authorities closed units generating a total 11 million kilowatts at small thermal power plants last year in its drive to save energy and reduce emissions, said the CEC statement.

Editor: Yang Lina
 

tphuang

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No, what the US is doing has serious implications for its financial system and the USD as the reserve currency of the world, and not to mention the lack of willingness to deal with these problems. Its not simply as just another one of those lies as you put it.
that's why the world needs to drop USD as the reserve currency and go with real money like gold/silver. US is not doing things to help the world. It is doing things to help itself (although I think it's doing a terrible job of that). There hasn't been any reason for the world to keep US as the reserve currency since the end of Bretton Woods II. You have to use a currency that's independent of domestic politics as the reserve currency.
As for the Labor shortages in China, it is real, where do you think all those migrant workers came from in the first place? The move to inland would cause wages to rise as well.
Have you been to China recently?
There was such a huge on rush of available labor that productive workers were retiring from the work force when they are in their early to mid 40s. At the same time if you go to like restaurants or elevators, you see people getting hired that provide no productive value to the society at all. Why would you need 20 waiter/waitress in a restaurant serving 15 people? Why do you think new college graduates in China are having such trouble finding jobs and end up doing stuff that high school drop outs can do?

It's because they have too much available labour, that they could afford to hire these people at dirt low rates. It's the same with many of the public enterprises. Now, as this available super cheap labour becomes more scarce, because the population is all becoming better educated and less interested in doing the same job that their parents did. You are obviously going to have a dearth of people willing work long hours for dirt low wages.

Now, this will force the local businesses to pay more and also not force retirement so early. Then, you will have more people in the 40s and early 50s staying in the work force and more young people willing to settle with higher paying labour jobs rather than struggling to find desk jobs. That alone will keep extra people in the work force. At the same time, as the society becomes more lean and productive, you will see less jobs like pressing buttons in the elevator, dedicated bathroom cleaners, tea boys/hi girls in restaurants and such. All you need to really do raise productivity is that.

And then if they move their production inland and use some of China's newly built infrastructure, they will find plenty of people without real jobs and unwilling to relocate from their hometown. These people are willing to work for dirt low wages still, because they haven't had to face the extremely inflated housing market of he coastal cities. At the same time, most of the previous unproductive inland industries got moved to the export driven provinces like Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian. They can either work for dirt low as door watcher or dumpling makers or in a real factory. Where do you think they will work?
You are misreading the article, I think. Food inflation is much higher than 5.1% (November figure), but overall, I think its 8 point something. The author lists cooking oil, eggs and apples as rising between 10% and 20%. That may well be true, without the government figures being wrong, either for overall inflation or food inflation.

This certainly is a problem, but food prices will come back down like they did before. It has to do with weather factors, global commodity speculation, and yes, too much loose money worldwide. Their "core" inflation, the American term for cpi w/out food and fuel prices, is significantly lower than 5.1% because food makes up 1/3 of the basket for cpi computation.

As to a real estate bubble, the thing is that there is a lot of demand for housing in China. Those who have been warehousing apartments may loose a fortune, but that will not affect the poor or middle earners.
dude, the housing bubble in China has some serious social effect. The housing demand in Beijing is created by speculation from coal mine owners and property speculators from the South. If it's based purely on real demand, there is no way housing prices in Beijing would be within the same ball park as housing prices in New York.

The wealth gap between the haves and have nots becomes so visible and that creates social tensions. At the same time, that takes away middle earners the ability to buy housing for their sons to get married. This is the kind of stuff that causes PRC leaders to stay awake in the middle of the night.
Would a property bust in China really be as bad as that of the U.S. ? Wouldn't that make real estate property much more affordable to a segment of the people who couldn't have afforded it otherwise? What's more important is that the banks are able to withstand the bust and there are real demand for properties from this segment of people who'll then minimise the losses in banks and that of the investors. Also, property demand should not be a problem with the rural-to-urban migration for quite some time to come.

On another note, this report on China's electricity consumption is consistent with the report that China's GDP in purchasing parity terms is already larger than the U.S.'s.



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China's electricity consumption jumps 14.56% in 2010

English.news.cn 2011-01-17 09:33:21 FeedbackPrintRSS

BEIJING, Jan. 17 (Xinhua) -- China's electricity consumption maintained its steady growth last year, up 14.56 percent year on year to well over 4.19 trillion kWh, the China Electricity Council (CEC) said Monday.

The electricity consumption growth rate was 8.12 percentage points higher than the previous year, said a statement from the CEC.

Consumption by manufacturing and industrial sectors increased 15.44 percent year on year to about 3.09 trillion kWh last year, boosted by the country's steady and sound economic growth, said the statement.

Investment in China's electricity industry, however, dropped 8.45 percent from a year earlier to 705.1 billion yuan (107 billion U.S. dollars) last year.

The statement said China had improved its power generating structure last year with more electricity generated from non-fossil resources.

At the end of last year, installed power generating capacity was up 10.07 percent year on year to 962 million kilowatts.

About 26.53 percent of China's installed generating capacity came from the non-fossil sectors, of which 213.4 million kilowatts was from hydro power, 10.82 million kilowatts from nuclear power and 31.07 million kilowatts from wind power, said the statement.

The authorities closed units generating a total 11 million kilowatts at small thermal power plants last year in its drive to save energy and reduce emissions, said the CEC statement.

Editor: Yang Lina
a bubble burst is needed to correct the imbalances in the economy and housing market for sure. It will be really good for most of the populations. Of course, this entire bubble is created by the hot money flowing into the country and also the excessive lending by the banks. Once it blows up, it will be horrible for the country, because BOC is explicitly backing all of this debt. At certain point, it needs to allow the banks to fail for their bad lending practices, but I doubt that will happen.

So, what they will do is similar to what the Western countries have already done. Which is bailing out the banks for bad lending practices and not allow anyone to fail. So then, the big banks will keep doing the same thing and continue to create bubbles in the economy. Lol....
 
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