Chinese Economics Thread

ansy1968

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“What we are experiencing now is unprecedented,” said a Chinese startup founder who has operations in the United States and India but asked not to be identified as he is now considering walking away. “My entrepreneurial spirit has been dampened due to all this, let alone global ambitions.”
Hi gadgetcool5,

Not all are disheartened. Especially if you had a great product to sell at an affordable price.

from cnTechPost


Four of India's top five phone makers in Q2 are Chinese companies
2020-07-27 20:05:13 GMT+8 | cnTechPost
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In the second quarter, Xiaomi shipped 29 percent of all smartphones in India, ranking No. 1, according to data released by market research firm Counterpoint.
Samsung returned to second place, followed by Vivo, Realme, and OPPO.

Four of India's top five phone makers in Q2 are Chinese companies-cnTechPost


India has about 500 million smartphone users, and the local smartphone market saw a 51 percent year-on-year drop in shipments in the second quarter.
Xiaomi's share rose throughout the quarter and now stands at 29 percent, thanks to models like the Redmi Note 8.
Samsung bucked the trend, shipping more than 4.68 million units to return to the second place with 26 percent market share.


Chinese high-end phone maker OnePlus regained its leadership position in the premium segment above $398 with the new OnePlus 8 series, followed by Apple's iPhone 11.
India also has more than 350 million feature phone users, and the top five players in the market are ITEL, a division of Chinese smartphone maker Transsion, and local player LAVA, Samsung, Nokia, and another local player KARBONN.

Four of India's top five phone makers in Q2 are Chinese companies-cnTechPost

Separately, according to data from another market research firm Canalys, In the second quarter of this year, Chinese smartphone brands had nearly 80% market share in India.


Three of the top four sellers were Chinese brands, with Xiaomi being No. 1, Vivo No. 2, and OPPO No. 4, the report showed.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well of course that’s what they are going to do. I mean, just think about it, what is a share in a company? It’s basically an IOU from the company to you the investor.

When investors buy shares, they hand their money over to the company for these IOUs, which can be traded, which in effect creates a form of fiat money.

What happens when America de-lists already Listed Chinese companies? They effectively make those IOUs worthless.

It’s the American government that has made this unilateral decision, so good luck trying to make the company, another victim, pay you back. Even if America passes blatantly biased laws to allow investors to go after the de-listed companies for their worthless shares, well good luck getting much of any of that money back since the overwhelming majority of those Chinese companies assets are in China.

It would be tariffs all over again, with the majority of the pain being borne by ordinary American. All this would do is limit Chinese companies abilities to raise capital in the US stock markets in the future.

As such, it makes perfect sense that Chinese companies, especially those with little to no assets in the US, would rush to list and cash in while they can. If Trump does actually follow through with this idiotic idea, it would basically mean these newly listed Chinese companies would have just got shed loads of free money. They wouldn’t even need to pay out dividends.

What more, doing this would make American stock markets incredibly risky and unattractive for all other foreign companies and investors of all stripes, which will tank the American stock market and dollar as massive capital flight takes place.

If the trade war with China and tariffs was like America shooting itself in the foot, doing this would be like shooting yourself in the balls.

Hang on a minute there, Wolfe. I always like your post, and it is always insightful, analytical and critical. But I've to disagree with you on this one.

A share is not an IOU from the company to the investor. A corporate bond is an IOU and it is closer to what you are describing.

First and most important of this distinction is once a company received monies for their shares sales. They are under no obligation to EVER redeem them or buy them back (Although sometimes they do buy back shares for other reasons). But they are not under any obligation to do so!

Also, Companies does not have to pay dividend, ever. They do, to maintain investors confidence, share price management and investors' happiness

Once shares are sold, it is a one time thing. The company get the money once, no matter how many times the shares are "re-cycled".

So the affects of any regulation from the USA is to affect abilities for the company to raise further cash. As investors would be scared away from purchase. Causing the share price to collapse. But this should not affect the day to day running of the company in theory. But it does affect their abilities in the money market for finance. And may even affect arrangement with banks.

Thus it is correct to say it'll affect the capital market for foreign entities as they may considered they could be affected in the future. The confidence will be rock bottom. This lack of confidence will manifest itself in a stock market crash. Thus hurting USA itself.
 

manqiangrexue

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China's industrial profit growth quickens, signals firming economic recovery

BEIJING (Reuters) - Profits at China's industrial firms rose for a second straight month and at the fastest pace in over a year, adding to signs the country's economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis is gaining momentum.

The statistics bureau said on Monday that profits at China's industrial firms rose 11.5% year-on-year in June to 666.55 billion yuan ($95.27 billion) - marking the quickest profit growth since March 2019.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Hang on a minute there, Wolfe. I always like your post, and it is always insightful, analytical and critical. But I've to disagree with you on this one.

A share is not an IOU from the company to the investor. A corporate bond is an IOU and it is closer to what you are describing.

First and most important of this distinction is once a company received monies for their shares sales. They are under no obligation to EVER redeem them or buy them back (Although sometimes they do buy back shares for other reasons). But they are not under any obligation to do so!

Also, Companies does not have to pay dividend, ever. They do, to maintain investors confidence, share price management and investors' happiness

Once shares are sold, it is a one time thing. The company get the money once, no matter how many times the shares are "re-cycled".

So the affects of any regulation from the USA is to affect abilities for the company to raise further cash. As investors would be scared away from purchase. Causing the share price to collapse. But this should not affect the day to day running of the company in theory. But it does affect their abilities in the money market for finance. And may even affect arrangement with banks.

Thus it is correct to say it'll affect the capital market for foreign entities as they may considered they could be affected in the future. The confidence will be rock bottom. This lack of confidence will manifest itself in a stock market crash. Thus hurting USA itself.

I must admit I did not use the best analogy, but a share in a company is not a one-off discrete transaction. When you buy a share, you technically buy ownership of a tiny percentage of the company, and whoever holds those shares have a continuing, ongoing stake within the company.

In addition, when a company issues shares, it records the issue value as a liability in its accounts (Which never reflects the stock market share price, but it is still recognised as a continuing liability).

While it is true that normally a company is not under any obligation to buy back already issued shares, indeed most companies usually make additional share offerings to raise additional capital.

However, in the very limited scope of delisting from stock exchanges, there is no real precedent that I can think of involving governments forcing profitable, solvent companies to de-list, so I was going off voluntarily de-listing rules, which required the company buy back existing issued shares at market value or above (determined by negotiations between the company and shareholders) in order to de-list, which is what I think the US government would do, as I don’t see them burning American investors just to be fair to Chinese companies.

The only other example I can think of is in the case of bankruptcy/insolvency, whereby if there are any assets/value left after a company has been wound up and all other creditors have taken their due, shareholders can take a share of what is left proportional to their share holdings.

But either way, I fully expect Trump to try to screw Chinese companies any and every which way he can, so I absolutely expect him to try to force Chinese companies to pay through the nose to buy back shares from American shareholders. As such, I actually expect the stock price of some Chinese companies with significant assets in the US or US allied territories to go up if Trump makes any concrete moves to put his threats into action as American investors would expect the US government to try to create a massive payday for them through these forced delistings.

Asset seizures would be a given, but the US may also use blackmail to try to force Chinese companies to buy back already issued shares at vastly inflated prices, like threatening to put them on sanction lists, thereby threatening fines and extradition for anyone who trades with those companies worldwide, thereby threatening their international trade if they don’t cough up their lunch money.

However, the fact that these Chinese companies have done absolutely nothing wrong or illegal would mean the Europeans are extremely unlikely to go along with this. As they would worry their companies would be on the receiving end of such threats if they allowed the US to set such a precedent. Ironically, if Trump presses ahead with this, it will massively spur the development of a parallel international trading system outside of American control and influence, and be another major blow to both the Dollar and the American stock market.
 

SPOOPYSKELETON

Junior Member
Registered Member
I must admit I did not use the best analogy, but a share in a company is not a one-off discrete transaction. When you buy a share, you technically buy ownership of a tiny percentage of the company, and whoever holds those shares have a continuing, ongoing stake within the company.

In addition, when a company issues shares, it records the issue value as a liability in its accounts (Which never reflects the stock market share price, but it is still recognised as a continuing liability).

While it is true that normally a company is not under any obligation to buy back already issued shares, indeed most companies usually make additional share offerings to raise additional capital.

However, in the very limited scope of delisting from stock exchanges, there is no real precedent that I can think of involving governments forcing profitable, solvent companies to de-list, so I was going off voluntarily de-listing rules, which required the company buy back existing issued shares at market value or above (determined by negotiations between the company and shareholders) in order to de-list, which is what I think the US government would do, as I don’t see them burning American investors just to be fair to Chinese companies.

The only other example I can think of is in the case of bankruptcy/insolvency, whereby if there are any assets/value left after a company has been wound up and all other creditors have taken their due, shareholders can take a share of what is left proportional to their share holdings.

But either way, I fully expect Trump to try to screw Chinese companies any and every which way he can, so I absolutely expect him to try to force Chinese companies to pay through the nose to buy back shares from American shareholders. As such, I actually expect the stock price of some Chinese companies with significant assets in the US or US allied territories to go up if Trump makes any concrete moves to put his threats into action as American investors would expect the US government to try to create a massive payday for them through these forced delistings.

Asset seizures would be a given, but the US may also use blackmail to try to force Chinese companies to buy back already issued shares at vastly inflated prices, like threatening to put them on sanction lists, thereby threatening fines and extradition for anyone who trades with those companies worldwide, thereby threatening their international trade if they don’t cough up their lunch money.

However, the fact that these Chinese companies have done absolutely nothing wrong or illegal would mean the Europeans are extremely unlikely to go along with this. As they would worry their companies would be on the receiving end of such threats if they allowed the US to set such a precedent. Ironically, if Trump presses ahead with this, it will massively spur the development of a parallel international trading system outside of American control and influence, and be another major blow to both the Dollar and the American stock market.

Why not just issue more shares then?
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Why not just issue more shares then?

No you can't do that, because the company has been delisted, which means it is removed from the "market place". The stock market.

They can issues shares privately, to private investors or on the AIM market. But in reality as the shares are not really liquid, there's a premium to pay.

Anywhere I'll reply to @plawolf later as I'm currently occupied at the moment. I'll go into a bit more details.
 

KYli

Brigadier
If those companies wait til after delisting to OTCBB, then they probably can buy back their shares at significant lower price. Otherwise, those companies mostly like would do something like SMIC did by delisting at NYSE and then listing at HKSE later.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
I must admit I did not use the best analogy, but a share in a company is not a one-off discrete transaction. When you buy a share, you technically buy ownership of a tiny percentage of the company, and whoever holds those shares have a continuing, ongoing stake within the company.

Reply. 1

Sort of agree with you, except for the one off discrete bit. Yes you are buying into a stake in the company, but it is still a one-off purchase. You can't buy more of the "same company". I hope you know what I mean. You can buy more of the company as in more shares, but you can't buy more of the same share you already bought. So technically it is a one-off discrete purchase.


In addition, when a company issues shares, it records the issue value as a liability in its accounts (Which never reflects the stock market share price, but it is still recognised as a continuing liability).

Reply.

No, disagree completely! In accounting, there is a thing called the accounting equation. (It is basically trying to be smart, like as in Einstein's e=mc2 type of equatiin)
The accounting equation is asset-liability=capital.

Therefore, shares receipts are down as capital. Not liability. Therefore if a company owns 10 trucks worth £10,000 each, and have a £20,000 loan from the bank. The asset is £100,000 - liability of £20,000 = capital of £80,000 This £80,000 represent the capital of investors buying shares worth £80,000 to enable the company to buy assets. So shares is entered in accounts as capital! NEVER liability.


While it is true that normally a company is not under any obligation to buy back already issued shares, indeed most companies usually make additional share offerings to raise additional capital.


Reply

Agree.

However, in the very limited scope of delisting from stock exchanges, there is no real precedent that I can think of involving governments forcing profitable, solvent companies to de-list, so I was going off voluntarily de-listing rules, which required the company buy back existing issued shares at market value or above (determined by negotiations between the company and shareholders) in order to de-list, which is what I think the US government would do, as I don’t see them burning American investors just to be fair to Chinese companies.

Reply.

Listing is a private matter in a free market environment. Government have no roles to play except law that governs the stock market. It is between the company and the stock market. If for whatever reasons the company wishing to delist or was forced to delist by the stock market or it's regulators, companies still are no under any obligation to repurchase the shares. The reason is simple, as per my example above, the only way a company from my example above can buy back those shares, all things being equal, is to sell assets (it's trucks) to raise money to buy back those shares. In doing so the company cease to exist. You could argue, they could raise funds by borrowing. But under this circumstance, nobody us going to lend them a dime.

So that's why in situation like that describe above, it is the investors that's taking the risk. (But then again they should, as they normally get a bigger reward than just putting their money in the bank).


The only other example I can think of is in the case of bankruptcy/insolvency, whereby if there are any assets/value left after a company has been wound up and all other creditors have taken their due, shareholders can take a share of what is left proportional to their share holdings.

Reply.

Agree. Except, there are different types of creditors, the first in line with the begging bowl will be government tax authority followed by local government. They usually gets 100% of their due. And then the rest is pro rata to the holdings. And preferential creditors gets first bite. By the time it filters down to ordinary shareholders, it usually in my experience won't be anything left.


But either way, I fully expect Trump to try to screw Chinese companies any and every which way he can, so I absolutely expect him to try to force Chinese companies to pay through the nose to buy back shares from American shareholders. As such, I actually expect the stock price of some Chinese companies with significant assets in the US or US allied territories to go up if Trump makes any concrete moves to put his threats into action as American investors would expect the US government to try to create a massive payday for them through these forced delistings.

Asset seizures would be a given, but the US may also use blackmail to try to force Chinese companies to buy back already issued shares at vastly inflated prices, like threatening to put them on sanction lists, thereby threatening fines and extradition for anyone who trades with those companies worldwide, thereby threatening their international trade if they don’t cough up their lunch money.

Reply.

Not sure what presidential powers are available to him. I know they (the USA government) can seizure foreign assets, and have done so in the past.

However, the fact that these Chinese companies have done absolutely nothing wrong or illegal would mean the Europeans are extremely unlikely to go along with this. As they would worry their companies would be on the receiving end of such threats if they allowed the US to set such a precedent. Ironically, if Trump presses ahead with this, it will massively spur the development of a parallel international trading system outside of American control and influence, and be another major blow to both the Dollar and the American stock market.


Reply.

Agree, it won't bold well for them. Although they have precedent as I said above. But it is usually with some "justifiable" excuse and it is quite small as not to give the market the jitters. But with China, they might rick market confidence.


Sorry, my IT skills are pants. I was trying to be cleaver and replied to each paragraph. But I ended up replying IN YOUR QUOTES. Please see answers in your quotes. Sorry. You can see why I went into accountancy and not IT! LOL
 
Last edited:

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
@plawolf

I must admit I did not use the best analogy, but a share in a company is not a one-off discrete transaction. When you buy a share, you technically buy ownership of a tiny percentage of the company, and whoever holds those shares have a continuing, ongoing stake within the company.

Reply. 1

Sort of agree with you, except for the one off discrete bit. Yes you are buying into a stake in the company, but it is still a one-off purchase. You can't buy more of the "same company". I hope you know what I mean. You can buy more of the company as in more shares, but you can't buy more of the same share you already bought. So technically it is a one-off discrete purchase.


In addition, when a company issues shares, it records the issue value as a liability in its accounts (Which never reflects the stock market share price, but it is still recognised as a continuing liability).

Reply.

No, disagree completely! In accounting, there is a thing called the accounting equation. (It is basically trying to be smart, like as in Einstein's e=mc2 type of equation)
The accounting equation is asset-liability=capital.

Therefore, shares receipts are written down as capital. Not liability. Therefore if a company owns 10 trucks worth £10,000 each, and have a £20,000 loan from the bank. The asset is £100,000 - liability of £20,000 = capital of £80,000 This £80,000 represent the capital of investors buying shares worth £80,000 to enable the company to buy assets. So shares is entered in accounts as capital! NEVER liability. Which is why we call it "balance sheet". It must always balance. USA term is statement of financial position.


While it is true that normally a company is not under any obligation to buy back already issued shares, indeed most companies usually make additional share offerings to raise additional capital.


Reply

Agree.

However, in the very limited scope of delisting from stock exchanges, there is no real precedent that I can think of involving governments forcing profitable, solvent companies to de-list, so I was going off voluntarily de-listing rules, which required the company buy back existing issued shares at market value or above (determined by negotiations between the company and shareholders) in order to de-list, which is what I think the US government would do, as I don’t see them burning American investors just to be fair to Chinese companies.

Reply.

Listing is a private matter in a free market environment. Government have no roles to play except law that governs the stock market. It is between the company and the stock market. If for whatever reasons the company wishing to delist or was forced to delist by the stock market or it's regulators, companies still are not under any obligation to repurchase the shares. The reason is simple, as per my example above, the only way a company from my example above can buy back those shares, all things being equal, is to sell assets (it's trucks) to raise money to buy back those shares. In doing so the company cease to exist. You could argue, they could raise funds by borrowing. But under this circumstance, nobody us going to lend them a dime.

So that's why in situation like that describe above, it is the investors that's taking the risk. (But then again they should, as they normally get a bigger reward than just putting their money in the bank).


The only other example I can think of is in the case of bankruptcy/insolvency, whereby if there are any assets/value left after a company has been wound up and all other creditors have taken their due, shareholders can take a share of what is left proportional to their share holdings.

Reply.

Agree. Except, there are different types of creditors, the first in line with the begging bowl will be government tax authority followed by local government. They usually gets 100% of their due. And then the rest is pro rata to the holdings. And preferential creditors gets first bite. By the time it filters down to ordinary shareholders, it usually in my experience won't be anything left.


But either way, I fully expect Trump to try to screw Chinese companies any and every which way he can, so I absolutely expect him to try to force Chinese companies to pay through the nose to buy back shares from American shareholders. As such, I actually expect the stock price of some Chinese companies with significant assets in the US or US allied territories to go up if Trump makes any concrete moves to put his threats into action as American investors would expect the US government to try to create a massive payday for them through these forced delistings.

Asset seizures would be a given, but the US may also use blackmail to try to force Chinese companies to buy back already issued shares at vastly inflated prices, like threatening to put them on sanction lists, thereby threatening fines and extradition for anyone who trades with those companies worldwide, thereby threatening their international trade if they don’t cough up their lunch money.

Reply.

Not sure what presidential powers are available to him. I know they (the USA government) can seize foreign assets, and have done so in the past.

However, the fact that these Chinese companies have done absolutely nothing wrong or illegal would mean the Europeans are extremely unlikely to go along with this. As they would worry their companies would be on the receiving end of such threats if they allowed the US to set such a precedent. Ironically, if Trump presses ahead with this, it will massively spur the development of a parallel international trading system outside of American control and influence, and be another major blow to both the Dollar and the American stock market.

Reply.

Agree, it won't bold well for them. Although they have precedent as I said above. But it is usually with some "justifiable" excuse and it is quite small as not to give the market the jitters. But with China, they might rick market confidence.


Ok. I copy and paste your text and my reply individually to each paragraphs. Hope this make it easier to read.
 
Last edited:

10thman

Junior Member
Registered Member
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“What we are experiencing now is unprecedented,” said a Chinese startup founder who has operations in the United States and India but asked not to be identified as he is now considering walking away. “My entrepreneurial spirit has been dampened due to all this, let alone global ambitions.”
I hope it's just a small minority
If the government and businesses in China think or feel that way, it's over
If anything, adapt, do better and pivot
 
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