Chinese Economics Thread
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bladerunner
Banned Idiot
Some economists like krugman etc still claim that the yuan is undervalued considerably, some even siuggest its undervalued by another 30% or so.
Martian
Senior Member
How many times can you claim "another 30%" undervaluation?
Paul Krugman and his ilk are well-known China-bashers. It is easy to blame someone else for America's problems. Paul Krugman and his fellow demagogues use China as a convenient scapegoat. An objective person would ignore their extremist views.
Let's examine a more reasonable assessment of China's currency. Let's look at the complaint by some members of the US Congress in 2005.
"Sep 21, 2005 - US President George W Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao met at a New York hotel on September 13 on the eve of a UN summit they attended. .... Some members of the US Congress claim that the yuan is undervalued by at least 30% to 40%. US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and ...
From Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs"
Since 2005, China's currency has appreciated by 25%. That is pretty close in redressing the 30% to 40% undervaluation claimed by "some members of the US Congress" in 2005. After an appreciation of 25%, it is disingenuous for China-haters to keep claiming "another 30%" undervaluation. No fair person will buy that story.
Indeed, at the G-20, the other 19 countries refused to accept the U.S. position that China's currency is being manipulated and undervalued. The U.S. is isolated and alone in claiming "another 30%" undervaluation.
"G-20 rejection leaves U.S. to go it alone
G-20 summit leaders refused to assist the U.S. when they rejected a U.S. proposal to set limits on trade surpluses and deficits, and also turned down a U.S. effort to force China to raise the value of its currency.
By Don Lee, John M. Glionna and Christi Parsons, Los Angeles Times
November 12, 2010|1:30 p.m.
Reporting from Seoul, South Korea —
The Group of 20 summit ended Friday with a declaration of broad principles but no commitment to immediate action, signaling that the United States will have to go it alone in dealing with its fragile economy and near-double digit unemployment.
In their final declaration, leaders of the world's most powerful economies pledged to work together and to refrain from protectionism and competitive devaluation of currencies. They also agreed to take steps to promote growth in low-income countries.
But when it came to specifics, a U.S. proposal to set numerical limits on trade surpluses and deficits was rejected. Leaders of the world's 20 biggest economies pledged only to develop "indicative guidelines" to assess imbalances in the first half of next year.
They also refused to endorse a U.S. effort to force China to raise the value of its currency.
"Any sense of global solidarity looks to have been yesterday's story," said Tim Condon, chief economist at ING Financial Markets in Singapore.
Essentially, that left the administration — along with American workers, families and businesses — to shoulder the challenge and the likely pain of trying to solve the nation's economic problems on its own.
"Obama is now in a position where he must be prepared to act unilaterally to reduce the trade deficit and to shore up U.S. industrial and technological competitiveness or risk losing not only the presidency in two years, but also the American dream," said Clyde Prestowitz, a former Reagan administration trade negotiator and now president of the Economic Strategy Institute in Washington.
There are several possible scenarios going forward.
One is that the exporting giants, including China, Germany, South Korea, and Japan, could change their positions: If U.S. economic growth remains low, unemployment high and incomes stagnant, consumers could cut back on their purchases of imported goods — a development that could hit the exporting nations hard because there is no alternative market right now to absorb their output.
If demand for their products drops, the leaders who humbled Obama in Seoul might decide it was in their interest to do more to bolster the U.S. economy.
Another possibility is that American consumers will return to their free-spending ways — as a recent surge in imports suggest they might. That will mean more credit-card and other debt, as well as a potential for another financial crisis, unless consumers' spending power also accelerated. With unemployment seemingly stuck near 10% and businesses guarding their profit margins, a hefty round of salary increases looks like a long-shot.
A third possible scenario, and perhaps the most likely, is that the U.S. economy will continue to struggle, growing slowly in an atmosphere of high joblessness and belt-tightening for government and ordinary Americans alike.
Certainly there are things Obama and the federal government could do to brighten future prospects.
Many economists believe the United States could bolster its competitiveness in the global economy by investing more in research and education. But the benefits would be relatively long-term and would take new federal spending.
Given the prospect for partisan gridlock between the White House and emboldened congressional Republicans, such spending seems unlikely.
Even without congressional approval, there are other tools Obama could use.
He could cite China as a currency manipulator, if Beijing doesn't move more quickly in adjusting its undervalued yuan, setting in motion a process that could lead to sanctions. His administration could apply tariffs unilaterally on certain imports, or undertake a "Buy American" program, as Ohio has essentially done for government business.
But such actions are fraught with political as well as economic risks. As British Prime Minister David Cameron warned Thursday, they could lead to a dangerous return to what happened in the 1930s when trade barriers, currency wars and other selfish actions by countries prolonged the global depression.
Although nations now have the tools to reduce the intensity of the standoff, the possibility of a currency war "absolutely" remains, said Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega upon the conclusion of the two-day summit.
Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper expressed similar concern, saying, " G-20 credibility does depend on showing results ... we cannot get out of this with beggar-thy-neighbor policies."
Obama sought to put an optimistic face on prospects for the future.
"Sometimes I think naturally there's an instinct to focus on the disagreements," the president said, when in fact "in each of these successive summits we've actually made progress."
He said there was not a lot of discussion about the Federal Reserve's recent plan to pump $600 billion into the U.S. financial system — effectively printing billions of dollars to spur U.S. growth.
The move has been widely criticized by other countries as a tactic to suppress the value of the dollar to help American exporters compete, though currency and other policies in the leading exporting nations are also designed to help their own economies.
America's large public debts and fiscal deficits also drew fire, especially with fiscally conservative nations such as Germany, which resisted U.S. pressure for high-saving nations to step up their consumption. Even stalwart American allies United Kingdom and Canada were reluctant to support stronger U.S. language in the declaration on rebalancing, given their own domestic commitments to fiscal restraint despite resistance from their people.
"I think it was always clear that the G-20 would be able to do little concrete on the imbalances, and it has indeed kicked the problem down the road," said Raghuram Rajan, a University of Chicago finance professor and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, which the G-20 has enlisted to help assess economic imbalances.
"The reality is that every large country will do what it thinks is best for its own agenda, and any help they offer one another will be indirect," Rajan said. "In the medium term, these agendas could converge, but the medium term is too long for political comfort."
Ethan Kim of the Los Angeles Times Seoul bureau contributed to this report."
Paul Krugman and his ilk are well-known China-bashers. It is easy to blame someone else for America's problems. Paul Krugman and his fellow demagogues use China as a convenient scapegoat. An objective person would ignore their extremist views.
Let's examine a more reasonable assessment of China's currency. Let's look at the complaint by some members of the US Congress in 2005.
"Sep 21, 2005 - US President George W Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao met at a New York hotel on September 13 on the eve of a UN summit they attended. .... Some members of the US Congress claim that the yuan is undervalued by at least 30% to 40%. US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and ...
From Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs"
Since 2005, China's currency has appreciated by 25%. That is pretty close in redressing the 30% to 40% undervaluation claimed by "some members of the US Congress" in 2005. After an appreciation of 25%, it is disingenuous for China-haters to keep claiming "another 30%" undervaluation. No fair person will buy that story.
Indeed, at the G-20, the other 19 countries refused to accept the U.S. position that China's currency is being manipulated and undervalued. The U.S. is isolated and alone in claiming "another 30%" undervaluation.
"G-20 rejection leaves U.S. to go it alone
G-20 summit leaders refused to assist the U.S. when they rejected a U.S. proposal to set limits on trade surpluses and deficits, and also turned down a U.S. effort to force China to raise the value of its currency.
By Don Lee, John M. Glionna and Christi Parsons, Los Angeles Times
November 12, 2010|1:30 p.m.
Reporting from Seoul, South Korea —
The Group of 20 summit ended Friday with a declaration of broad principles but no commitment to immediate action, signaling that the United States will have to go it alone in dealing with its fragile economy and near-double digit unemployment.
In their final declaration, leaders of the world's most powerful economies pledged to work together and to refrain from protectionism and competitive devaluation of currencies. They also agreed to take steps to promote growth in low-income countries.
But when it came to specifics, a U.S. proposal to set numerical limits on trade surpluses and deficits was rejected. Leaders of the world's 20 biggest economies pledged only to develop "indicative guidelines" to assess imbalances in the first half of next year.
They also refused to endorse a U.S. effort to force China to raise the value of its currency.
"Any sense of global solidarity looks to have been yesterday's story," said Tim Condon, chief economist at ING Financial Markets in Singapore.
Essentially, that left the administration — along with American workers, families and businesses — to shoulder the challenge and the likely pain of trying to solve the nation's economic problems on its own.
"Obama is now in a position where he must be prepared to act unilaterally to reduce the trade deficit and to shore up U.S. industrial and technological competitiveness or risk losing not only the presidency in two years, but also the American dream," said Clyde Prestowitz, a former Reagan administration trade negotiator and now president of the Economic Strategy Institute in Washington.
There are several possible scenarios going forward.
One is that the exporting giants, including China, Germany, South Korea, and Japan, could change their positions: If U.S. economic growth remains low, unemployment high and incomes stagnant, consumers could cut back on their purchases of imported goods — a development that could hit the exporting nations hard because there is no alternative market right now to absorb their output.
If demand for their products drops, the leaders who humbled Obama in Seoul might decide it was in their interest to do more to bolster the U.S. economy.
Another possibility is that American consumers will return to their free-spending ways — as a recent surge in imports suggest they might. That will mean more credit-card and other debt, as well as a potential for another financial crisis, unless consumers' spending power also accelerated. With unemployment seemingly stuck near 10% and businesses guarding their profit margins, a hefty round of salary increases looks like a long-shot.
A third possible scenario, and perhaps the most likely, is that the U.S. economy will continue to struggle, growing slowly in an atmosphere of high joblessness and belt-tightening for government and ordinary Americans alike.
Certainly there are things Obama and the federal government could do to brighten future prospects.
Many economists believe the United States could bolster its competitiveness in the global economy by investing more in research and education. But the benefits would be relatively long-term and would take new federal spending.
Given the prospect for partisan gridlock between the White House and emboldened congressional Republicans, such spending seems unlikely.
Even without congressional approval, there are other tools Obama could use.
He could cite China as a currency manipulator, if Beijing doesn't move more quickly in adjusting its undervalued yuan, setting in motion a process that could lead to sanctions. His administration could apply tariffs unilaterally on certain imports, or undertake a "Buy American" program, as Ohio has essentially done for government business.
But such actions are fraught with political as well as economic risks. As British Prime Minister David Cameron warned Thursday, they could lead to a dangerous return to what happened in the 1930s when trade barriers, currency wars and other selfish actions by countries prolonged the global depression.
Although nations now have the tools to reduce the intensity of the standoff, the possibility of a currency war "absolutely" remains, said Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega upon the conclusion of the two-day summit.
Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper expressed similar concern, saying, " G-20 credibility does depend on showing results ... we cannot get out of this with beggar-thy-neighbor policies."
Obama sought to put an optimistic face on prospects for the future.
"Sometimes I think naturally there's an instinct to focus on the disagreements," the president said, when in fact "in each of these successive summits we've actually made progress."
He said there was not a lot of discussion about the Federal Reserve's recent plan to pump $600 billion into the U.S. financial system — effectively printing billions of dollars to spur U.S. growth.
The move has been widely criticized by other countries as a tactic to suppress the value of the dollar to help American exporters compete, though currency and other policies in the leading exporting nations are also designed to help their own economies.
America's large public debts and fiscal deficits also drew fire, especially with fiscally conservative nations such as Germany, which resisted U.S. pressure for high-saving nations to step up their consumption. Even stalwart American allies United Kingdom and Canada were reluctant to support stronger U.S. language in the declaration on rebalancing, given their own domestic commitments to fiscal restraint despite resistance from their people.
"I think it was always clear that the G-20 would be able to do little concrete on the imbalances, and it has indeed kicked the problem down the road," said Raghuram Rajan, a University of Chicago finance professor and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, which the G-20 has enlisted to help assess economic imbalances.
"The reality is that every large country will do what it thinks is best for its own agenda, and any help they offer one another will be indirect," Rajan said. "In the medium term, these agendas could converge, but the medium term is too long for political comfort."
Ethan Kim of the Los Angeles Times Seoul bureau contributed to this report."
Last edited:
Martian
Senior Member
China official suggests wider use of yuan
A potential solution to the problem of printing trillions of dollars by the U.S. government is to bypass the U.S. dollar and resort to Yuan-based trade. Unfortunately, this process takes time.
"China official suggests wider use of yuan: report
(AFP) – 3 hours ago
China should reduce its dependence on global reserve currencies, a central bank official has been quoted as saying.
BEIJING — China should reduce its dependence on international reserve currencies, which have contributed to an "unstable" world monetary system, a central bank official was quoted Monday as saying.
Jin Zhongxia, deputy director-general of the People's Bank of China's international department, told a weekend forum that wider use of the yuan currency to settle accounts would help cut risks, the state-run China Daily reported.
"The existing international monetary system, centered on a small number of reserve currencies, is quite unstable," Jin was quoted as saying.
Jin expressed concerns about the dollar, whose value has been falling for three months, and US Federal Reserve moves to buy 600 billion dollars of government bonds to boost domestic growth, which could further drive down the dollar.
Over-printing of reserve currencies "places emerging economies in a dilemma," he said.
Chinese officials have repeatedly expressed concern over the Fed plan, warning it could lead to a flood of speculative investment funds into emerging economies.
Economies that peg their currencies to reserve currencies will thus face an increased risk of fund inflows, capital market bubbles and inflationary pressure, Jin said.
Those whose currencies float freely, on the other hand, face risks posed by exchange rate fluctuations, rising trade costs and variable economic conditions, he said.
Cross-border trade settlement in yuan effectively reduces the risks posed by exchange rate fluctuations to China's trade partners, Jin said.
China plans to boost yuan-denominated cross-border trade with other countries 10-fold to a fifth of its total trade, or more than 2.5 trillion yuan (376.7 billion dollars), the paper said, citing Jin, who did not specify a target date.
By the end of September, cross-border settlements in yuan amounted to 197.1 billion yuan between Chinese companies and 43 economies."
A potential solution to the problem of printing trillions of dollars by the U.S. government is to bypass the U.S. dollar and resort to Yuan-based trade. Unfortunately, this process takes time.
"China official suggests wider use of yuan: report
(AFP) – 3 hours ago
China should reduce its dependence on global reserve currencies, a central bank official has been quoted as saying.
BEIJING — China should reduce its dependence on international reserve currencies, which have contributed to an "unstable" world monetary system, a central bank official was quoted Monday as saying.
Jin Zhongxia, deputy director-general of the People's Bank of China's international department, told a weekend forum that wider use of the yuan currency to settle accounts would help cut risks, the state-run China Daily reported.
"The existing international monetary system, centered on a small number of reserve currencies, is quite unstable," Jin was quoted as saying.
Jin expressed concerns about the dollar, whose value has been falling for three months, and US Federal Reserve moves to buy 600 billion dollars of government bonds to boost domestic growth, which could further drive down the dollar.
Over-printing of reserve currencies "places emerging economies in a dilemma," he said.
Chinese officials have repeatedly expressed concern over the Fed plan, warning it could lead to a flood of speculative investment funds into emerging economies.
Economies that peg their currencies to reserve currencies will thus face an increased risk of fund inflows, capital market bubbles and inflationary pressure, Jin said.
Those whose currencies float freely, on the other hand, face risks posed by exchange rate fluctuations, rising trade costs and variable economic conditions, he said.
Cross-border trade settlement in yuan effectively reduces the risks posed by exchange rate fluctuations to China's trade partners, Jin said.
China plans to boost yuan-denominated cross-border trade with other countries 10-fold to a fifth of its total trade, or more than 2.5 trillion yuan (376.7 billion dollars), the paper said, citing Jin, who did not specify a target date.
By the end of September, cross-border settlements in yuan amounted to 197.1 billion yuan between Chinese companies and 43 economies."
Martian
Senior Member
China, Russia quit dollar in trade settlement
"China, Russia quit dollar in trade settlement
08:14, November 24, 2010
Premier Wen Jiabao shakes hands with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on a visit to St. Petersburg on Tuesday. (ALEXEY DRUZHININ / AFP)
St. Petersburg, Russia - China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.
Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies.
"About trade settlement, we have decided to use our own currencies," Putin said at a joint news conference with Wen in St. Petersburg.
The two countries were accustomed to using other currencies, especially the dollar, for bilateral trade. Since the financial crisis, however, high-ranking officials on both sides began to explore other possibilities.
The yuan has now started trading against the Russian rouble in the Chinese interbank market, while the renminbi will soon be allowed to trade against the rouble in Russia, Putin said.
"That has forged an important step in bilateral trade and it is a result of the consolidated financial systems of world countries," he said.
Putin made his remarks after a meeting with Wen. They also officiated at a signing ceremony for 12 documents, including energy cooperation.
The documents covered cooperation on aviation, railroad construction, customs, protecting intellectual property, culture and a joint communique. Details of the documents have yet to be released.
Putin said one of the pacts between the two countries is about the purchase of two nuclear reactors from Russia by China's Tianwan nuclear power plant, the most advanced nuclear power complex in China.
Putin has called for boosting sales of natural resources - Russia's main export - to China, but price has proven to be a sticking point.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, who holds sway over Russia's energy sector, said following a meeting with Chinese representatives that Moscow and Beijing are unlikely to agree on the price of Russian gas supplies to China before the middle of next year.
Russia is looking for China to pay prices similar to those Russian gas giant Gazprom charges its European customers, but Beijing wants a discount. The two sides were about $100 per 1,000 cubic meters apart, according to Chinese officials last week.
Wen's trip follows Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's three-day visit to China in September, during which he and President Hu Jintao launched a cross-border pipeline linking the world's biggest energy producer with the largest energy consumer.
Wen said at the press conference that the partnership between Beijing and Moscow has "reached an unprecedented level" and pledged the two countries will "never become each other's enemy".
Over the past year, "our strategic cooperative partnership endured strenuous tests and reached an unprecedented level," Wen said, adding the two nations are now more confident and determined to defend their mutual interests.
"China will firmly follow the path of peaceful development and support the renaissance of Russia as a great power," he said.
"The modernization of China will not affect other countries' interests, while a solid and strong Sino-Russian relationship is in line with the fundamental interests of both countries."
Wen said Beijing is willing to boost cooperation with Moscow in Northeast Asia, Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, as well as in major international organizations and on mechanisms in pursuit of a "fair and reasonable new order" in international politics and the economy.
Sun Zhuangzhi, a senior researcher in Central Asian studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the new mode of trade settlement between China and Russia follows a global trend after the financial crisis exposed the faults of a dollar-dominated world financial system.
Pang Zhongying, who specializes in international politics at Renmin University of China, said the proposal is not challenging the dollar, but aimed at avoiding the risks the dollar represents.
Wen arrived in the northern Russian city on Monday evening for a regular meeting between Chinese and Russian heads of government.
He left St. Petersburg for Moscow late on Tuesday and is set to meet with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday.
Agencies and Zhou Wa contributed to this story.
By Su Qiang and Li Xiaokun, China Daily"
"China, Russia quit dollar in trade settlement
08:14, November 24, 2010
Premier Wen Jiabao shakes hands with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on a visit to St. Petersburg on Tuesday. (ALEXEY DRUZHININ / AFP)
St. Petersburg, Russia - China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.
Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies.
"About trade settlement, we have decided to use our own currencies," Putin said at a joint news conference with Wen in St. Petersburg.
The two countries were accustomed to using other currencies, especially the dollar, for bilateral trade. Since the financial crisis, however, high-ranking officials on both sides began to explore other possibilities.
The yuan has now started trading against the Russian rouble in the Chinese interbank market, while the renminbi will soon be allowed to trade against the rouble in Russia, Putin said.
"That has forged an important step in bilateral trade and it is a result of the consolidated financial systems of world countries," he said.
Putin made his remarks after a meeting with Wen. They also officiated at a signing ceremony for 12 documents, including energy cooperation.
The documents covered cooperation on aviation, railroad construction, customs, protecting intellectual property, culture and a joint communique. Details of the documents have yet to be released.
Putin said one of the pacts between the two countries is about the purchase of two nuclear reactors from Russia by China's Tianwan nuclear power plant, the most advanced nuclear power complex in China.
Putin has called for boosting sales of natural resources - Russia's main export - to China, but price has proven to be a sticking point.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, who holds sway over Russia's energy sector, said following a meeting with Chinese representatives that Moscow and Beijing are unlikely to agree on the price of Russian gas supplies to China before the middle of next year.
Russia is looking for China to pay prices similar to those Russian gas giant Gazprom charges its European customers, but Beijing wants a discount. The two sides were about $100 per 1,000 cubic meters apart, according to Chinese officials last week.
Wen's trip follows Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's three-day visit to China in September, during which he and President Hu Jintao launched a cross-border pipeline linking the world's biggest energy producer with the largest energy consumer.
Wen said at the press conference that the partnership between Beijing and Moscow has "reached an unprecedented level" and pledged the two countries will "never become each other's enemy".
Over the past year, "our strategic cooperative partnership endured strenuous tests and reached an unprecedented level," Wen said, adding the two nations are now more confident and determined to defend their mutual interests.
"China will firmly follow the path of peaceful development and support the renaissance of Russia as a great power," he said.
"The modernization of China will not affect other countries' interests, while a solid and strong Sino-Russian relationship is in line with the fundamental interests of both countries."
Wen said Beijing is willing to boost cooperation with Moscow in Northeast Asia, Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, as well as in major international organizations and on mechanisms in pursuit of a "fair and reasonable new order" in international politics and the economy.
Sun Zhuangzhi, a senior researcher in Central Asian studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the new mode of trade settlement between China and Russia follows a global trend after the financial crisis exposed the faults of a dollar-dominated world financial system.
Pang Zhongying, who specializes in international politics at Renmin University of China, said the proposal is not challenging the dollar, but aimed at avoiding the risks the dollar represents.
Wen arrived in the northern Russian city on Monday evening for a regular meeting between Chinese and Russian heads of government.
He left St. Petersburg for Moscow late on Tuesday and is set to meet with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday.
Agencies and Zhou Wa contributed to this story.
By Su Qiang and Li Xiaokun, China Daily"
Last edited:
Re: China, Russia quit dollar in trade settlement
i dont think this is the first of its kind but it certainly is significant. imagine China signing such deal with the EU wow the Fed would hate that wouldnt they
i dont think this is the first of its kind but it certainly is significant. imagine China signing such deal with the EU wow the Fed would hate that wouldnt they
I am looking for a data sheet for this Triquint number ************************
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Oh really?? I caught you sorry attempt at spam before anyone but a mod could see it?? Lucky you! Be gone you spammer. Try to see your crap elsewhere!
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Martian
Senior Member
China: Skyscraper Country
Shanghai World Financial Center and Jin Mao Tower
"China has six of the world's 15 tallest buildings." Shanghai Tower will "be completed in 2014."
"China's skyscraper boom buoys global industry
By JOE McDONALD - Dec 4, 2010 10:49 PM ET
By The Associated Press
BEIJING (AP) — The 121-story Shanghai Tower is more than China's next record-setting building: It's an economic lifeline for the elite club of skyscraper builders.
Financial gloom has derailed plans for new towers in Chicago, Moscow, Dubai and other cities. But in China, work on the 632-meter (2,074-foot) Shanghai Tower, due to be completed in 2014, and dozens of other tall buildings is rushing ahead, powered by a buoyant economy and providing a steady stream of work to architects and engineers.
The U.S. high-rise market is "pretty much dead," said Dan Winey, a managing director for Gensler, the Shanghai Tower's San Francisco-based architects. "For us, China in the next 10 to 15 years is going to be a huge market."
China has six of the world's 15 tallest buildings — compared with three for the United States, the skyscraper's birthplace — and is constructing more at a furious pace, defying worries about a possible real estate boom and bust. It is on track to pass the U.S. as the country with the most buildings among the 100 tallest by a wide margin.
"There are cities in China that most Western people have never heard of that have bigger populations and more tall buildings than half the prominent cities in the U.S.," said Antony Wood, executive director of the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat at the Illinois Institute of Technology in Chicago.
China is leading a wave of skyscraper building in developing countries that is shifting the field's center of gravity away from the United States and Europe.
India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have ultra-tall towers under construction or on the drawing board. In the Gulf, Doha in Qatar and Dubai, site of the current record holder, the 163-story Burj Khalifa, each has three buildings among the 20 tallest under construction, though work on all but one of those has been suspended.
The shift is so drastic that North America's share of the 100 tallest buildings will fall from 80 percent in 1990 to just 18 percent by 2012, according to Wood. He said by then, 45 of the tallest will be in Asia, with 34 of those in China alone.
"So 34 percent of the 100 tallest buildings will be in a single country. That has only happened once before, and that was with the USA," he said.
In China, skyscrapers are going up in obscure locales such as Wenzhou, Wuhan and Jiangyin, a boomtown north of Shanghai. It is building a 72-story, 328-meter (1,076-foot) hotel-and-apartment tower that will be taller than Manhattan's Chrysler Building.
China's edifice complex is driven by a mix of demand for space in a crowded country with economic growth forecast at 10 percent this year and local leaders who want architectural eye candy to promote their cities as commercial centers.
Dozens of midsize Chinese cities are building new business districts to replace cramped downtowns. They look to the model of Shanghai's skyscraper-packed Pudong district — China's Wall Street — created in the 1990s on reclaimed industrial land.
"Governments are encouraging these iconic buildings in order to give a very clear message to the outside world: Please pay attention to our city," said Dennis Poon, managing principal of Thornton Tomasetti, the Shanghai Tower's structural engineers. The New York-based firm also is working on the 115-story Ping An International Finance Center in Shenzhen, near Hong Kong, and other Chinese projects.
China has four of the 10 tallest buildings under construction, versus two for the United States — and work on one of those, the 610-meter (2,000-foot) Chicago Spire, has stopped.
The Shanghai Tower will be China's tallest office tower, surpassing the neighboring Shanghai World Financial Center in Pudong. The 2-year-old SWFC passed the Jinmao Tower, also in Pudong, for the title.
China accounts for 65 percent of Gensler's worldwide revenues from projects that involve buildings 35 to 40 stories and above, according to Winey.
The firm is working on some 50 projects in China that total 80 million square feet (8 million square meters), the equivalent of San Francisco's entire stock of commercial office space, he said. China revenues are rising by 30 to 35 percent a year and its staff of 140 people in offices in Beijing and Shanghai should expand to 500 in the next seven years.
The boom has drawn a Who's Who of star architects and given Chinese firms their first shot at designing a skyscraper.
Shenzhen's Ping An tower was designed by Kohn Pedersen Fox; the New York firm's other projects include the 116-story East Tower of the Chow Tai Fook Centre in Guangzhou, also near Hong Kong. Chicago-based Skidmore Owings & Merrill designed Beijing's tallest building, the 75-story China World Tower III, and the 76-story Tianjin World Financial Center in Tianjin east of Beijing, due to be completed next year. Jiangyin's Hanging Village of Huaxi was designed by China's A+E Design.
Tianjin, a port and oil-refining center with ambitions to be a finance and tech hub, is building four towers of at least 75 stories. One of them, the Goldin Finance 117, will be 117 stories and nearly 2,000 feet (600 meters) tall.
Instead of Western-style single-use office or apartment towers, many developers diversify their revenue sources by making buildings a mix of hotel and office space, with a shopping mall in the base and luxury apartments at the top.
The new space is hitting the market just as Beijing tries to cool a boom in construction of luxury housing and shopping malls. Regulators warn that a supply glut could leave lenders with unpaid loans if developers default.
But demand for high-end office space is so strong that the skyscraper market should face no such problems, said Danny Ma, director of China research for real estate consulting firm CB Richard Ellis. He said the new buildings should fill up quickly because many are the first in their cities to offer high-quality facilities required by foreign and major Chinese companies that are expanding there.
"More and more tenants are keen to move to such buildings," Ma said. He said developers are signing up tenants in advance for 50 to 60 percent of the space in new projects, enough in many cases to make them profitable.
China is helping to propel development of skyscraper design and urban planning as developers face government pressure to make buildings environmentally friendly and integrate them into busy cities.
The Shanghai Tower will have a double-layer glass exterior to insulate it and cut heating and cooling costs, an advanced feature that might be rejected as too costly to install in the U.S. or other Western markets, Winey said.
"You can do a lot more experimentation here," he said. "It's an amazing place to be, because you can do things here that you can't do anywhere else in the world."
___
Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitats:
Thornton Tomasetti:
Gensler: www.gensler.com"
Shanghai World Financial Center and Jin Mao Tower
"China has six of the world's 15 tallest buildings." Shanghai Tower will "be completed in 2014."
"China's skyscraper boom buoys global industry
By JOE McDONALD - Dec 4, 2010 10:49 PM ET
By The Associated Press
BEIJING (AP) — The 121-story Shanghai Tower is more than China's next record-setting building: It's an economic lifeline for the elite club of skyscraper builders.
Financial gloom has derailed plans for new towers in Chicago, Moscow, Dubai and other cities. But in China, work on the 632-meter (2,074-foot) Shanghai Tower, due to be completed in 2014, and dozens of other tall buildings is rushing ahead, powered by a buoyant economy and providing a steady stream of work to architects and engineers.
The U.S. high-rise market is "pretty much dead," said Dan Winey, a managing director for Gensler, the Shanghai Tower's San Francisco-based architects. "For us, China in the next 10 to 15 years is going to be a huge market."
China has six of the world's 15 tallest buildings — compared with three for the United States, the skyscraper's birthplace — and is constructing more at a furious pace, defying worries about a possible real estate boom and bust. It is on track to pass the U.S. as the country with the most buildings among the 100 tallest by a wide margin.
"There are cities in China that most Western people have never heard of that have bigger populations and more tall buildings than half the prominent cities in the U.S.," said Antony Wood, executive director of the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat at the Illinois Institute of Technology in Chicago.
China is leading a wave of skyscraper building in developing countries that is shifting the field's center of gravity away from the United States and Europe.
India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have ultra-tall towers under construction or on the drawing board. In the Gulf, Doha in Qatar and Dubai, site of the current record holder, the 163-story Burj Khalifa, each has three buildings among the 20 tallest under construction, though work on all but one of those has been suspended.
The shift is so drastic that North America's share of the 100 tallest buildings will fall from 80 percent in 1990 to just 18 percent by 2012, according to Wood. He said by then, 45 of the tallest will be in Asia, with 34 of those in China alone.
"So 34 percent of the 100 tallest buildings will be in a single country. That has only happened once before, and that was with the USA," he said.
In China, skyscrapers are going up in obscure locales such as Wenzhou, Wuhan and Jiangyin, a boomtown north of Shanghai. It is building a 72-story, 328-meter (1,076-foot) hotel-and-apartment tower that will be taller than Manhattan's Chrysler Building.
China's edifice complex is driven by a mix of demand for space in a crowded country with economic growth forecast at 10 percent this year and local leaders who want architectural eye candy to promote their cities as commercial centers.
Dozens of midsize Chinese cities are building new business districts to replace cramped downtowns. They look to the model of Shanghai's skyscraper-packed Pudong district — China's Wall Street — created in the 1990s on reclaimed industrial land.
"Governments are encouraging these iconic buildings in order to give a very clear message to the outside world: Please pay attention to our city," said Dennis Poon, managing principal of Thornton Tomasetti, the Shanghai Tower's structural engineers. The New York-based firm also is working on the 115-story Ping An International Finance Center in Shenzhen, near Hong Kong, and other Chinese projects.
China has four of the 10 tallest buildings under construction, versus two for the United States — and work on one of those, the 610-meter (2,000-foot) Chicago Spire, has stopped.
The Shanghai Tower will be China's tallest office tower, surpassing the neighboring Shanghai World Financial Center in Pudong. The 2-year-old SWFC passed the Jinmao Tower, also in Pudong, for the title.
China accounts for 65 percent of Gensler's worldwide revenues from projects that involve buildings 35 to 40 stories and above, according to Winey.
The firm is working on some 50 projects in China that total 80 million square feet (8 million square meters), the equivalent of San Francisco's entire stock of commercial office space, he said. China revenues are rising by 30 to 35 percent a year and its staff of 140 people in offices in Beijing and Shanghai should expand to 500 in the next seven years.
The boom has drawn a Who's Who of star architects and given Chinese firms their first shot at designing a skyscraper.
Shenzhen's Ping An tower was designed by Kohn Pedersen Fox; the New York firm's other projects include the 116-story East Tower of the Chow Tai Fook Centre in Guangzhou, also near Hong Kong. Chicago-based Skidmore Owings & Merrill designed Beijing's tallest building, the 75-story China World Tower III, and the 76-story Tianjin World Financial Center in Tianjin east of Beijing, due to be completed next year. Jiangyin's Hanging Village of Huaxi was designed by China's A+E Design.
Tianjin, a port and oil-refining center with ambitions to be a finance and tech hub, is building four towers of at least 75 stories. One of them, the Goldin Finance 117, will be 117 stories and nearly 2,000 feet (600 meters) tall.
Instead of Western-style single-use office or apartment towers, many developers diversify their revenue sources by making buildings a mix of hotel and office space, with a shopping mall in the base and luxury apartments at the top.
The new space is hitting the market just as Beijing tries to cool a boom in construction of luxury housing and shopping malls. Regulators warn that a supply glut could leave lenders with unpaid loans if developers default.
But demand for high-end office space is so strong that the skyscraper market should face no such problems, said Danny Ma, director of China research for real estate consulting firm CB Richard Ellis. He said the new buildings should fill up quickly because many are the first in their cities to offer high-quality facilities required by foreign and major Chinese companies that are expanding there.
"More and more tenants are keen to move to such buildings," Ma said. He said developers are signing up tenants in advance for 50 to 60 percent of the space in new projects, enough in many cases to make them profitable.
China is helping to propel development of skyscraper design and urban planning as developers face government pressure to make buildings environmentally friendly and integrate them into busy cities.
The Shanghai Tower will have a double-layer glass exterior to insulate it and cut heating and cooling costs, an advanced feature that might be rejected as too costly to install in the U.S. or other Western markets, Winey said.
"You can do a lot more experimentation here," he said. "It's an amazing place to be, because you can do things here that you can't do anywhere else in the world."
___
Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitats:
Thornton Tomasetti:
Gensler: www.gensler.com"
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