Chinese Economics Thread
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Jura The idiot
General
controversial
Trade negotiator who got China into WTO is rooting for Trump’s re-election because ‘Twitterer in Chief’ is easy to read
follow the link if interested; while reading I was thinking thousands-years old "Appear weak when your are strong, ..."
Trade negotiator who got China into WTO is rooting for Trump’s re-election because ‘Twitterer in Chief’ is easy to read
- The US president’s daily tweets to 67 million global followers make him ‘easy to read’, said the former trade envoy and point man for China’s WTO negotiations
- Trump is a transparent and realistic negotiator who is concerned only with material interests such as forcing China to import more American products, on which Beijing is able to compromise, Long said
follow the link if interested; while reading I was thinking thousands-years old "Appear weak when your are strong, ..."
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
I don't know if it's true because the Trump administrations lies all the time but I find it interesting how Trump is claiming he hasn't agreed to roll back tariffs. If he's not going to roll back tariffs then what is China getting out of this deal? China agrees to buy US agricultural products worth $50 billion and whatever else concessions and China gets nothing? No deal would be the same. Then Trump's tariffs on China are hurting US corporations which is causing economic unease in the US. So what's the point of a deal? Yes Trump is trying to make it look he's the one in control and the US is in the position of advantage. The US is openly trying to destroy China. If China publicly admitted it was trying to destroy the US aside from the paranoid conspiracists already believing it, they would want to punish China just for saying it out loud on top of it.
Maybe the world should just start over. If the US doesn't like the status quo then maybe the world should start from scratch and renegotiate their trade relations on everything. Of course it's not going to happen because the US is the primary benefactor of the world economy despite the whining. It's like Trump wanting allies to pay up for protecting them while portraying the US as the victim. US allies are already paying by following the US world order helping the US in having its forefront position. Why are people worried over Trump offending allies? Because then they won't be allies and the US loses position and power in this world. Starting over would expose the charade that the US is the victim that the world is taking advantage of. Starting over would break old alliances and the status quo. Europe wouldn't be thinking about serving US economic interests when they have to look out for themselves. And then US allies will be able to use the China card in negotiating with the US. The US wouldn't realize how good they had before. It's just like if the US was such in a command position over China, why not just end trade with China? It's a bluff because no matter what, greed rules the US and the rich elite special interests want to make as much money as they can no matter what. They are not content with being rich already. They want more. And that's why they don't entertain ending relations with China. The only people who call for it are the poor souls who don't make money directly from China. They only think about themselves like farmers who voted for Trump can hold America hostage where the $40 billion they did make from China every year trumps the US's $20 trillion economy in a democracy because that's how it works.
Maybe the world should just start over. If the US doesn't like the status quo then maybe the world should start from scratch and renegotiate their trade relations on everything. Of course it's not going to happen because the US is the primary benefactor of the world economy despite the whining. It's like Trump wanting allies to pay up for protecting them while portraying the US as the victim. US allies are already paying by following the US world order helping the US in having its forefront position. Why are people worried over Trump offending allies? Because then they won't be allies and the US loses position and power in this world. Starting over would expose the charade that the US is the victim that the world is taking advantage of. Starting over would break old alliances and the status quo. Europe wouldn't be thinking about serving US economic interests when they have to look out for themselves. And then US allies will be able to use the China card in negotiating with the US. The US wouldn't realize how good they had before. It's just like if the US was such in a command position over China, why not just end trade with China? It's a bluff because no matter what, greed rules the US and the rich elite special interests want to make as much money as they can no matter what. They are not content with being rich already. They want more. And that's why they don't entertain ending relations with China. The only people who call for it are the poor souls who don't make money directly from China. They only think about themselves like farmers who voted for Trump can hold America hostage where the $40 billion they did make from China every year trumps the US's $20 trillion economy in a democracy because that's how it works.
Phase 1 or the skinny deal is pretty much dead as far as one can tell.
Both Larry Kudlow and Gao Feng said late Thursday there should be proportional tariff concessions if there was a deal to be made.
"达成协议必须同步取消已加征关税" was replaced with "达成协议必须同步等比率取消已加征关税".
There's no way in hell Xi will sign this kind of BS. Without the presidential seal, Trump is a crook and a liar.
Both Larry Kudlow and Gao Feng said late Thursday there should be proportional tariff concessions if there was a deal to be made.
"达成协议必须同步取消已加征关税" was replaced with "达成协议必须同步等比率取消已加征关税".
There's no way in hell Xi will sign this kind of BS. Without the presidential seal, Trump is a crook and a liar.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
While you weren't looking, the trade war with China went off the rails
Nov 17, 2019
·America's trade war with China has lost its way.
·Instead of pushing for structural change in China's managed economy, the Trump administration is negotiating to get US-China trade where it was before the tit-for-tat tariffs started.
·This story is starting to sound like a loop, and it's unclear how the Trump administration will get out of it.
While you weren't looking — perhaps while you were watching — the trade war with China went off the rails and lost its meaning.
To understand why, you have to know why the US started a trade war with China in the first place. It began with a very specific investigation, one using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to examine claims of Chinese theft of US intellectual property.
The investigation determined what many in the business community had been talking about for years: that China abused its US partners, stole the IP of American companies, forced those companies to reveal their technology to Chinese counterparts, and muscled US firms out of the Chinese economy in favor of state-owned enterprises.
This, the Trump administration said, was a problem beyond the capacity of the World Trade Organization. It was a problem worth going to economic war over. And so we did.
But so far this trade war has accomplished nothing aside from breaking up US supply chains and souring relations between the US and China. And now instead of discussing meaningful ways the Chinese economy will open to US businesses, trade negotiators are.
In fact, the status of the negotiations today sounds a lot like the status of the negotiations back in December 2018, when the US and China temporarily laid down their arms. Back then, The New York Times called the treaty — which included a resumption of soybean purchases on China's part — "." The "phase one" deal the administration is now working on would do much the same thing.
Of course, that's if we ever sign the deal.
Status quo antebellum
I understand if your head is spinning. This summer, it looked as if the world was ending — economic data was sputtering, the stock market was whipsawing, and it felt as if the US Treasury yield curve would remain inverted forever. President Donald Trump was sounding more and more unhinged.
On August 23, Trump out of the blue that American companies were "hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME."
Business leaders across the US didn't know what that meant or whether to take the president of the United States seriously. What a time to be alive.
The headlines about the trade war since then have been cloudy. First there was a cease-fire that paused an escalation of US tariffs on China, and then there was a deal . Then there were just some small details (agricultural purchases and whatnot) left to figure out to complete this so-called phase-one deal. Wall Street loved that. It loves any headline that smacks of this thing being over, .
Then something strange happened — the thing that is making this all seem so silly — the small details became onerous, so onerous that they became the main event.
The Trump administration reportedly started tossing in exchange for some agricultural purchases, and suddenly we were all supposed to get excited about a deal that promised only to get soybean purchases back to where they were before this mess started.
And the more desperate the Trump administration becomes to eke out some kind of win amid a darkening political situation, the more it will try to make small victories seem like big ones. China, for its part, is digging its heels in too.
Bloomberg Businessweek, in what it was like inside the White House as this trade war descended into the farcical, obtained a quote so good it made this reporter jealous.
Douglas Irwin, an economic historian at Dartmouth, compared what the Trump administration is doing with the trade war to what the US did after the War of 1812 against the British. When the war started, Americans claimed they would take territory from Canada; by the time the war ended, Americans were reduced to touting the fact that they hadn't lost any territory.
Trump is taking from the same playbook, according to . The president "launched the trade war against China and said, 'We are going to remake the economy and get the state out of industrial policy and mercantilism,'" Irwin said. "We are ending it by saying, 'They are buying just as much stuff as they did before.'"
Part of this shifting of the goal posts is the result of Trump's obsession with narrowing the trade deficit between the US and China, an issue economists of all stripes have repeatedly said doesn't matter for an advanced economy like ours.
It's Trump's obsession with that deficit that drives him to negotiate so hard for China's purchase of US goods. , as long as he's tilting at this particular windmill with the force of a thousand Don Quixotes, negotiations will vacillate between being serious and being ridiculous.
Now it seems they may stay firmly in the ridiculous.