Chinese Economics Thread

[plawolf]

Not even the most rabid China haters are accusing China of taking measures to actively push down the value of the Yuan. What Trump and his ilk are upset about is that China isn’t intervening enough to prop up the value of the Yuan against market forces. Let that sink in, in effect America is calling China a ‘currency manipulator’ for not manipulating its currency enough to America’s liking.

At this point, labelling China a currency manipulator is almost exclusively a symbolic act of petty name calling, as Trump has already exhausted the options labelling China a currency manipulator could have granted him.

As such, I see this as a sign of the Trump Administration’s growing frustration and impotence to squeeze out concessions from China. Far from being a powerful attack from a position of strength, this looks more like the proverbial kitchen sink being thrown for the lack of better options.

Trump thought this trade war would be easy, painless and quick to win. So thought it would be a great bold move to wow the American voters and secure himself a second term. Now that the reality is starting to sink in, he is growing increasingly desperate to get a ‘win’ before the next presidential elections, but his ego and brand won’t allow him to back down.

Expect more, similarly showy but ultimately ineffective stunts to follow.

 

[localizer]

Not even the most rabid China haters are accusing China of taking measures to actively push down the value of the Yuan. What Trump and his ilk are upset about is that China isn’t intervening enough to prop up the value of the Yuan against market forces. Let that sink in, in effect America is calling China a ‘currency manipulator’ for not manipulating its currency enough to America’s liking.

At this point, labelling China a currency manipulator is almost exclusively a symbolic act of petty name calling, as Trump has already exhausted the options labelling China a currency manipulator could have granted him.

As such, I see this as a sign of the Trump Administration’s growing frustration and impotence to squeeze out concessions from China. Far from being a powerful attack from a position of strength, this looks more like the proverbial kitchen sink being thrown for the lack of better options.

Trump thought this trade war would be easy, painless and quick to win. So thought it would be a great bold move to wow the American voters and secure himself a second term. Now that the reality is starting to sink in, he is growing increasingly desperate to get a ‘win’ before the next presidential elections, but his ego and brand won’t allow him to back down.

Expect more, similarly showy but ultimately ineffective stunts to follow.

Meh no point saying what we all know here. In fact, there's no point talking to most people nowadays about politics and stuff, they all brainwashed by the media. I got tired lol.

 

[AssassinsMace]

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This article acts like this is Trump alone. The media birthed people like Trump because those are lies that have been told long before him. The media and US politicians have been cheering on slapping tariffs on China for decades. Even some of the Democratic candidates before Trump became President were calling for even larger tariffs on China. Now that Trump implementing tariffs have exposed the truth, those democratic candidates are still singing the same song but sung to a different tune. They think cooperating with allies would be different. Like how the US has been courting Brazil so they can gang up on China over soy beans? So Brazil will help the US take back their share of the Chinese soy bean market to the US while China buys none from the primary benefactor, Brazil, of the US-China spat over soy beans. That's the pipe dream idea of cooperation with allies against China means.

Trump is the result of Beijing not confronting the lies that have been talked about trade and other things for decades. Beijing makes the same mistake Americans make and that is thinking everyone else thinks just like you. In the US when someone lies about you, Americans will confront the liar, immediately. That in turn means if they see someone not confront a lie, it must be because it's true.

China allowing the Yuan to float naturally to its own level for a day by not supporting it set off panic bells in the West not because money is being lost but because they thought China would never entertain playing with it. Some tried to spin China's display as a mistake by Beijing not foreseeing the possibility that Trump would label China a currency manipulator. Someone here posted Trump's demand's of China early on which was equivalent to demanding China signing its soul away to the devil. Basically it's an extortion not a negotiation. The only thing China would get from the deal is still being able to trade with the US. They think being able to trade with the US is so important that China will give into every demand Trump is making which would mean the US would be in control of China's economy. Some here posted that was just a ploy in the beginning with room for negotiation. Apparently Trump has given no ground since and the only thing China gets is being able to sell to the US market but nothing close to like it was before. China is stepping into hardball territory now. This dance with Trump is going nowhere. Trump charged past Presidents were giving the store away to China yet somehow he thinks China would get a better deal with him. China might as well do everything on their end to make it bad for Trump in the upcoming election.

Trump thought China wouldn't dare cross this line here or there in response to his actions. That happened day one of his trade war over a year ago when he thought no one would dare retaliate to his tariffs. China hasn't collapsed day one as Trump believed was going to happen. The only road left ahead "that'll show China" is for Trump is to end all relations with China. That'll open a whole hellish nightmare for the US when China under no obligation doesn't have to follow any treaties the US wants upheld to keep the world in check anymore. What are they going to do? Slap sanctions on China? Maybe the US will threaten trade in response. China thinks trade with the US is that important that it wouldn't dare...

 

[Jura The idiot]

now noticed the tweet

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·

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China's foreign trade import-export volume reached 17.41 trillion yuan ($2.47 trillion) in the first seven months of 2019, up 4.2%; China-US trade volume hit 2.1 trillion yuan, down 8.1%, with imports from the US down 24% and exports to the US down 2.1%: customs data

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[Jura The idiot]

now
China’s exports post surprise growth in July despite dramatic escalation in US trade war

• Exports grew by 3.3 per cent year-on-year in July, two full months after US President Donald Trump ratcheted up trade war tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese goods
• The data marks the anniversary of the US-China trade war, but does not factor in the latest threat of a 10 per cent tariff on US$300 billion of Chinese goods

Updated: 12:10pm, 8 Aug, 2019

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China’s external trade reported surprising stability in July, with exports growing 3.3 per cent and imports shrinking at 5.6 per cent, which was slower than analysts expected.

Exports, having dropped by 1.3 per cent in June, beat the median forecast of a Bloomberg poll of analysts who had suggested a 1.0 per cent decline. This is despite July being the second full month under which China’s exports to the United States faced a higher tariff of 25 per cent. July’s total exports were US$221.53 billion.

July was the only month in which exporters enjoyed a relative truce in trade war escalation, after President Xi Jinping and US counterpart Donald Trump agreed to a pause in new tariffs at the G20 summit in Osaka at the end of June.

Imports, meanwhile, fell by 5.6 per cent in July, according to data published by the General Administration of Customs in China on Thursday. This was above the analysts polled by Bloomberg, who had expected a 9 per cent slump. July’s total imports were US$175.47 billion

China’s overall trade surplus was US$45.06 billion in July, down from US$50.98 billion in June. This was ahead of the median poll by Bloomberg, which had predicted a balance of US$42.65 billion.

In a week when the trade war escalated and threatened to morph into a fully blown

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this was some good news for Beijing. It comes at a time when both the US and China seem to be entrenching their positions, gearing up for a bitter and sustained stand-off, indeed, President Xi has warned the Chinese people to expect a period of hardship.

More talks are expected to take place in

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but few harbour substantial hopes that a deal to end the trade war will come any time soon.

Last week, Trump also announced a further 10 per cent tariff on US$300 billion of Chinese goods as of September 1, but this has yet to be confirmed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, Washington’s trade authority. The effects of this tariff, should it be confirmed, could take months to filter into the economic data.

Nonetheless, the trade war - which began in earnest in July 2018 - has gnawed away at trade between the world’s two largest economies. Last month, exports from China to the US dipped 6.5 per cent, while imports fell 19.1 per cent.

China’s trade surplus with the US was US$29.98 billion last month, which was a 0.4 per cent decrease on a year earlier, and a 6.5 per cent decrease on June. This is a piece of news that will doubtless be well received by the White House. The US’ trade deficit with China has long been a major bugbear of Trump, who railed against it on the 2016 election trail.

The overall increase in exports runs counter to a series of data which had suggested that a slump was in store. In the purchasing managers’ index for June, in which manufacturers are asked a series of questions about their outlook, producers were negative about new export orders. The gauge was 46.9 in July, slightly up from 46.3 in June, but below the 50.0 mark that signifies positivity.

Furthermore, June’s inflation numbers suggested that China’s production prices are flatlining. In June, the producer price index, the price charged to buyers from producers at the factory gates, was 0.0 per cent, suggesting that China’s manufacturers are unable to receive the prices they want for their goods. July’s inflation figures will be available on Friday, and analysts are expecting it to have dipped into deflationary territory.

There is a likelihood that some front-loading occurred, with exporters sending their goods to market ahead of potential new tariffs from the US, however, with warehouses and inventories across

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due to previous bouts of front-loading, there was minimal room to manoeuvre on this front.

China’s import slump is persistent and points to continuing lags in consumption and manufacturing. Retail sales, however, have remained surprisingly robust, growing 9.8 per cent in June, largely due to the Chinese government’s efforts to pump stimulus into the economy to boost spending.

Overall, the picture remains bleak.

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grew by 6.2 per cent in the second quarter of the year, the weakest rate since modern records began in March 1992, with analysts expecting worse ahead for a nation facing severe headwinds on multiple fronts.

 

[Quickie]

Ouch! to you know who. With the ongoing trade war, China's foreign trade is still growing.

The doomsayers like to throw in big figures like an additional tariff on 300 or 320 billions of goods. The actual figure is likely to be much less because of the continuing contraction of trade between the 2 countries since the start of the tariff war.

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China's foreign trade up 4.2 pct in first seven months

BEIJING, Aug. 8 (Xinhua) -- China's foreign trade of goods rose 4.2 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year to 17.41 trillion yuan (about 2.49 trillion U.S. dollars), customs data showed Thursday.

Exports increased 6.7 percent year on year to 9.48 trillion yuan during the period, while imports grew 1.3 percent to 7.93 trillion yuan, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) said.

China saw its trade surplus widen by 47.4 percent year on year to 1.55 trillion yuan during the same period.

China's trade mix continued to optimize with the general trade growing both in volume and proportion in the January-July period. General trade grew 5.7 percent year on year and accounted for 59.8 percent of the total trade, 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.

The European Union remained as China's largest trading partner in the period, with bilateral trade volume up 10.8 percent from one year earlier to 2.72 trillion yuan, followed by the ASEAN, up 11.3 percent to 2.35 trillion yuan, and the United States, down 8.1 percent to 2.1 trillion yuan.

China's trade with Belt and Road countries totaled 5.03 trillion yuan, up 10.2 percent year on year, 6 percentage points higher than the overall pace, said the GAC, adding that the amount accounted for 28.9 percent of China's total trade volume.

China's private businesses reported faster trade growth in the first seven months, with the trade volume increasing 11.8 percent to 7.31 trillion yuan. The amount accounted for 42 percent of the total trade volume in the period, up 2.9 percentage points year on year.

 

[Just4Fun]

Chinese economy has successfully broken American tariff encirclement, expanding its dominance over the US in world goods trade.

The primary goal for Trump to launch his tariff war against China is to crush China economically. So far the US has failed in its primary goal, and its trade war against China. Trump has counted on an easy win in the trade war because, he believes, now that China exports more goods to the US than the US to China, therefore, imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods to the US will crush Chinese economy. To his surprise, the trade war hasn't worked in his favor. Although the trade war does decrease China's trade with the US, it speeds up China's trade diversification. China now is US number three trade partner after Mexico and Canada, and the US is China's number three trade partner after EU and ASEAN, while in the meantime, China's total trade with the world has been increasing, making it an indisputable number one goods trader in the world.

Put it in a bigger economic picture, China is taking over the vast territory of the Belt and Road countries, while the US is digging in at its north America stronghold. Clearly, China is much better positioned than the US as long as world trade is concerned. It is ominous to Trump's trade war against China, and is disastrous to US influence worldwide.

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China's foreign trade up 4.2 pct in first seven months

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Tariff Fight Knocks Off China as Top U.S. Trading Partner

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Yup China is less dependent on trade with US than ever before telling that to the pea brain ad visor who use simplistic reasoning that as China export more to US she would be vulnerable to coercion But trade is dynamic like water and wherever it face resistant it can flow elsewhere which is exactly what happened. China trade less with US but increase trade with the rest of the world But those neo con does not see the light yet. Trade war is loose loose preposition

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TRADE DEFICIT WIDENS & 3 MORE DATA POINTS PROVING THE U.S. IS LOSING THE TRADE WAR
Mac Slavo
August 5th, 2019

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Read by 1,351 people

As the trade deficit continues to widen and President Donald Trump ramps up his rhetoric on China, one thing is for certain: the data points show that the United States is the loser in this trade war.

There is no coming out on top when the tariffs, which

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, are a financial burden and additional tax on your own.

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investment in American businesses has fallen sharply since the start of the trade war, and

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.

The gap between how much America exports to China and how much it imports from the Asian nation grew to $30.2 billion in July, up from $30.1 billion the previous month, according to Commerce Department figures. But there are three more data points of importance that prove the United States is losing the trade war.

The widening gap was due to a decrease in the value of American exports,

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. The trade deficit has been a problem for Trump and one of the main reasons he started the trade war. Trump has used America’s trade deficit as a

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for his trade policies, and he has repeatedly promised that tariffs on China would reduce that deficit. But as predicted, when one uses central planning and government intervention to mess with the free market, things get worse. Economists generally agree that

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, as free trade is more important for a stable economy. This is the same reason that you wouldn’t worry about running a “deficit” with a grocery store,

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.

Trump’s tariffs are having an impact, but not in positive ways for the United States. During the first six months of 2018, U.S. exports to China

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relative to the same period last year.

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Both sides are doing less trading, but the trade deficit persists.

Three other data points are showing the trade war as an abject failure too:

1. Business Investments Plummeted

According to the Commerce Department, investment in American businesses has fallen off sharply since the start of Trump’s trade war in mid-2018.

This is a sign that businesses are holding off on hiring and expanding in the face of uncertainty and higher costs.

2. Loss of Goods-Producing Jobs

Trump has also tried to justify his bellicose trade policies by citing the importance of American manufacturing jobs. Not only is the

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but the job losses will have a ripple effect across the landscape of the American economy.

The long-term unemployment rate also hit its pre-recession low (there's been a lot of discussion about that number given the recent work from Ahn and Hamilton)

As a perfect encapsulation of where the economy is right now, after a gangbuster 2018, job growth year-over-year in goods is just about where it is for services. Goods has seen a dramatic slowdown, while services has held up better.

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1. Loser for The Treasury

The trade war has been a net loss for the treasury. Sure, there are the billions of tariff dollars paid by American consumers and businesses, but the amount paid to farmers to offset the damage done to them is higher.

It’s time to remove the partisan political blinders that keep people supporting the horrible trade war policies and open our eyes to what’s really happening. The U.S. is losing this trade war and the American consumer is the biggest loser of all.

More government intervention will not fix the problem. Central planning has only made things worse, and it’s past time we realize exactly what’s happening.

Brace yourself; the future economy’s outlook is bleak.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

USA trade deficit increasing, means the world (and China) getting more addicted to the USA money.

More and more Chinese businessman /politician become interested to push the cart of the USA foreign politics , due to the increasing holding of dollar dominated assets.

And as an add-on, the general employment of China become more dependent of the USA consumers.

Why is it good for China ?

It is good for the Capitol, for the USA businesses, but bad for the USA electorate .

 

[localizer]

USA trade deficit increasing, means the world (and China) getting more addicted to the USA money.

More and more Chinese businessman /politician become interested to push the cart of the USA foreign politics , due to the increasing holding of dollar dominated assets.

And as an add-on, the general employment of China become more dependent of the USA consumers.

Why is it good for China ?

It is good for the Capitol, for the USA businesses, but bad for the USA electorate .

Well, US economy is at a peak and Yuan devalued so this was expected.

Just wait for the recession.