No one has jumped to the conclusion that exports would be gone forever. However with the chief market of China, the EU, falling apart you will have to explain where China will be making up this export short fall. There is no evidence that by 2013 China will be back in the driver's seat with exports to the world.
And with pressure on China from other countries undercutting Chinese pricing on manufacturing goods, China faces some tough choices ahead. Its the new face of competition as lower priced manufacturers based in developing countries pressure China from below
Yes there will be demand for many kinds of products to be shipped to the world. The question is will China be the manufacturer of those products.
Good points there, but the fact remains is that China is still in the drivers seat due to several reasons:
1. Good infrastructure has already been put in place. Yes you can try to send low end products into another country that can produce it for less, but they don't have the necessary tools, like roads, water, and even enough electricity to keep the lights on and the machines running.
2. Raw materials is available around the world, but no one can match with China's near monopoly in processing rare earth elements to produce computers and high tech gears, plus the infrastructure to get the materials at the factories quicker and more efficient.
3. Chinese engineers and workers are being sent over seas to do construction projects such as bridges, office buildings, air ports, and roads and rail roads. Not to mention many of the architectural and engineering firms all over the world are outsourcing their drafting and construction documents to China and India using CAD (computer aid design) systems.
4. To make up for the trade differences China is working with South American nations and African countries to open up trades to China as they too are suffering from a slow down of economic activities. Lately China, Japan, and South Korea are doing a study to together to see how each would benefit from an all out open trade among each other.