Chinese Aviation Industry

Here is the latest as of Jan 2021 So they already deliver 50 planes sofar and transport 1. 8 million passenger interpolating. It is very normal for slow start when production start but gathering pace as they get more experience and built more production facility . Only last year they open the 2nd line Russia inherited much of Soviet Union humongous aerospace production facilities and they have enough skilled worker where China has to train new worker. I don't see the need to ramp up production by opening more production like because the market for regional jet is limited to western China the central and eastern part of China is better serve with HSR

China better off focusing on the production of C919

ARJ21 airliner reaches 46 planes delivered since its launch​

January 6, 2021

COMAC handed over 24 units of the first Chinese passenger plane in 2020

COMAC announced this week that it had completed the delivery of 24 units of the ARJ21-700 airliner in 2020. All aircraft were received by Chinese airlines, such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines.
Since 2016, the Chinese state planemaker has delivered 46 ARJ21, the first passenger aircraft developed in the country. The model has a capacity between 78 and 90 seats and a range of 3,700 km and was based on the design of the MD-80 (formerly McDonnell Douglas, now Boeing).

According to COMAC, at the end of 2020, the ARJ-21 fleet had carried around 1.6 million passengers. The first aircraft was delivered to Chengdu Airlines in June 2016, its largest customer, with 23 units.
In 2017, two more ARJ21 were delivered, six in 2018 and 12 in 2019, which shows how the aircraft’s production evolved during that period. The performance also reflects the Beijing government’s effort to pave the Chinese commercial aircraft program, which conditions airlines in the country to use COMAC models.

In a statement released in China, COMAC highlighted the progress of the ARJ21, with eight customers so far, but also the progress in the certification work of the , the most advanced single aisle jet ever developed in the country.

gadgetcool5 said:

Well they are on track to deliver 16 planes this year then. Slightly slower than last year when they should be accelerating. 16-20 planes a year is not enough for a successful aircraft.

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I presume you extrapolated to 4 a quarter? Again, you will see from last year they had lumpy deliveries. In general, expectation of around ~25 planes is probably reasonable. Assuming a 20-year program, that is roughly 500 planes, which is perfectly fine for a modern commercial jet from a company with zero experience. This about capabilities. C919 needs a higher standard. Definition of success there should be about 1500 airframes at least.

Does anyone know anything about Chinese industrial capacity and current or future production rates for aircraft (can be fixed-wing or rotary or both).

I struggle to find any numbers, even guesstimates. Like how many military aircraft does China produce or deliver each year. Would love to see comparisons to the US as I assume even though the US has 3-5x more manned military aircraft (fixed-wing, rotary) the gap could finally be decreasing soon by significant margins too.

Hendrik_2000 said:

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ARJ21 airliner reaches 46 planes delivered since its launch​

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January 6, 2021

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COMAC handed over 24 units of the first Chinese passenger plane in 2020

COMAC announced this week that it had completed the delivery of 24 units of the ARJ21-700 airliner in 2020. All aircraft were received by Chinese airlines, such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines.
Since 2016, the Chinese state planemaker has delivered 46 ARJ21, the first passenger aircraft developed in the country. The model has a capacity between 78 and 90 seats and a range of 3,700 km and was based on the design of the MD-80 (formerly McDonnell Douglas, now Boeing).

According to COMAC, at the end of 2020, the ARJ-21 fleet had carried around 1.6 million passengers.

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Thanks. For the 4.2 months from the previous report in July 2020 to the end of the year that would indicate the fleet performed at about 60 to 70h per month & airframe.

As for Russia and the SSJ100, Sukhoi had not developed a commercial airliner (let alone one aimed at competing in a Western-style operations enviroment) before, either. To be frank, as you say it might be better for COMAC to focus its resources on the C919 at this point - the ARJ21 will never become fully competitive. By the time its utilization rate approaches acceptable levels, fuel burn will be too high compared to its in-production peers (A220, E-Jet E2, possibly MRJ and/or re-engined SSJ-New).

Tirdent said:

Thanks. For the 4.2 months from the previous report in July 2020 to the end of the year that would indicate the fleet performed at about 60 to 70h per month & airframe.

As for Russia and the SSJ100, Sukhoi had not developed a commercial airliner (let alone one aimed at competing in a Western-style operations enviroment) before, either. To be frank, as you say it might be better for COMAC to focus its resources on the C919 at this point - the ARJ21 will never become fully competitive. By the time its utilization rate approaches acceptable levels, fuel burn will be too high compared to its in-production peers (A220, E-Jet E2, possibly MRJ and/or re-engined SSJ-New).

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I don't know why you said Russia never produced civilian aircraft Russia is just a name change for Soviet Union and they did produced 715 civilian aircraft in 1990's
ARJ21 maybe not as fuel efficient because it was designed in 2000's with maiden flight in 2008 using all metal construction based on Chinese industrial base at that time. Plus it was designed to serve high plateau in the west necessitating it to use bigger engine. I guess in the future they will replace the metal construction of the fuselage with Carbon fiber material and maybe use domestic engine. So the design is still evolving and young design. As it is now they keep improving it with the latest revision of cockpit and instrumental layout. But the market is not that big enough to justify full blown production. It is of limited production. You cannot compare it to Sukhoi S 100 or Embraer E jet because they are bigger jet

Aerospace was a well-developed industry in the

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. In late 1980s, the Soviet Union accounted for 25% of the worldwide civilian and 40% of the worldwide military aircraft production.

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The consequences of the Soviet Union's

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in 1991 were however catastrophic. The whole manufacturing sector was devastated by imports, while the aerospace and automobile industries barely managed to survive under highly protective tariffs.

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On the positive side, the military aircraft industry managed to benefit from improving export possibilities. It profited from a large stock of components and parts which had been produced during Soviet times. The civilian aircraft industry fared much worse: while in 1990, the country had produced 715 civilian aircraft, by 1998 the number had dropped to 54 and in 2000 only four civilian aircraft were produced.

Read again:

Tirdent said:

As for Russia and the SSJ100, Sukhoi had not developed a commercial airliner (let alone one aimed at competing in a Western-style operations enviroment) before, either.

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Almost 50% of the types in the table you posted are Ukrainian, and the SSJ is the only Sukhoi.

Tirdent said:

Well, there is - the Wrights never pretended the Flyer was anything other than a proof of concept and didn't force it on customers to operate at a loss (or with state subsidies, more likely)... What they did (and how AVIC should perhaps have handled the ARJ21) is more like the Boeing Model 367.

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Doing a proof of concept approach doesn’t make much sense when your objective is to develop and learning manufacturing process. It’s perhaps useful to see subsidies not so much as forcing customers to operate an inefficient product but as a human capital development program.

No reason for COMAC to more aggressively produce ARJ21 given the low demand for air travel over the past 2 years.
Chinese owned leasing companies are holding many excess aircraft returned from foreign operators because of the pandemic.

With constant improvement in technology, It is best to aligned the production rate to actual and eventual demand for air travel .

Not to mention that the high amount of foreign content in the aircraft makes it susceptible to an embargo just the same as foreign aircraft.
I think China should start working on a fully native replacement and manufacture the ARJ21 at a low rate. Once the replacement is available they should just convert the orders to that.

by78 said:

AG600's water collection and dumping apparatus (for firefighting) has successfully passed evaluation.

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AG600 testing its firefighting apparatus.