Chinese Aviation Industry

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dingyibvs

Junior Member
b787 said:
China can force to the Chinese airliners to buy Chinese made aircraft, but outside China things are different, the US and European Markets are big too, but you forget that even the Latin American or African markets are important as a whole, Russia also forces Russian airliners to buy Russian made aircraft.

Larger aircraft are built in smaller numbers

B-747 less than 1600 in 47 years

B-777 less than 1500 in 23 years

B-767 less than 1100 in 35 years

these aircraft are built for the world stage, for Europe, Asia, Africa, South America etc etc, Russia has built less than 150 Il-86 and Il-96 since 1980.

Do you get it or not

A-340 has less 400 aircraft made

These aircraft are built for airliners around the world.

Aircraft need markets otherwise the profits do not come and the risk of not even recovering the investment exist, basically China will not fix that by forcing its airliners to buy Chinese made aircraft

Do you think Il-96 has recovered the investment and made profits with less than 30 made?

Why do you think MD got bankrupt? do you want the answer? well MD-10 was not as successful as B-747, Convair also made the 880 and 990 were not success stories, same L-1011, well not even B-146, if you want to know why Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer are the most successful makers, see how many aircraft have made and sold.


Russia despite is a minor player in sales, has aircraft like Tu-154, Tu-134 and Yak-40 which have been produced in larger numbers than any Chinese jet, and more important Russia has the jet engine experience to compete with western manufacturers.


the Tu-154 went beyond the 1000 aircraft made mark, China is struggling to sell the ARJ-21 and it is forcing Chinese made aircraft to the Chinese airliners.


Do you think Germany did not make airliners after WWII, well they did but this never went beyond a few aircraft made, the VFW-614 for example never reached 111 aircraft made only 110 were made
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Why they joined Airbus?
simple larger markets give more chances to any aircraft a Chinese Russian made aircraft might be bought by Cuba, Belarus, Iran, Kazakhstan and some former soviet states, if lucky this will lure African or other Asian nations, so Russia is a partner too for world stage markets
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How would partnering with Russia open up Cuba, Iran, et al? China has good enough relationship with almost all of them to garner orders without a Russian partnership. I didn't forget about Latin America or Africa, I just don't see how Russia can help in any appreciable manner for opening up those markets considering Chinese presence there already far outweigh the Russian one and the difference will only become starker by the time the 929 is ready. BTW, ownership of a plane isn't shared by the countries it flies to, China doesn't need to sell planes to Africa to fly their planes there, it just needs the planes to be certified to fly there, which again, I don't see how Russia can help.

Yes Russia still has some tech that China could use, but I repeat, there's no way in hell Russia would give them up.
 
b787

b787

Captain
dingyibvs said:
How would partnering with Russia open up Cuba, Iran, et al? China has good enough relationship with almost all of them to garner orders without a Russian partnership. I didn't forget about Latin America or Africa, I just don't see how Russia can help in any appreciable manner for opening up those markets considering Chinese presence there already far outweigh the Russian one and the difference will only become starker by the time the 929 is ready. BTW, ownership of a plane isn't shared by the countries it flies to, China doesn't need to sell planes to Africa to fly their planes there, it just needs the planes to be certified to fly there, which again, I don't see how Russia can help.

Yes Russia still has some tech that China could use, but I repeat, there's no way in hell Russia would give them up.
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Why airliners buy aircraft? first is safety, second is economic efficiency, and third is industrial benefits.

tell me how many Chinese commercial aircraft fly in Iran? none , Russian ? at least the Tu-204, in Cuba how many Chinese commercial aircraft? none at least Tu-154 and Il-96

How many Chinese civilian aircraft are flown in Uzbekistan? none Russian? at least Tu-154, what about North Korea? Chinese aircraft none, Russian at least Tu-204.


Russian aircraft compared to American or European aircraft are not as widely flown, but Chinese aircraft are non existent, do you get it? how many passengers will want to fly in a Chinese aircraft?


people buy tickets simply thinking i will take off and i will land safely, China has no reputation for civil aircraft, Russia`s Tu-154 is flow by several carriers from Europe, Asia, Africa and America even China flies them


A civil aircraft is not a military aircraft, first they do not carry ejection seats and parachutes, third they are flown by 300-400 people, if one or two aircraft crash it is enough to make bad reputation and making airliners and people to do not fly a certain aircraft.


Many airliners will fly Russian aircraft because they know they work

Now entering new markets is harder, S-100 is flown by interjet, a Mexican airliner thaat flies 24 Superjet 100s, the venturing into a market that is usually a market for Embraer or bombardier without any political attachment, is an example of how hard is to sell airliners outside the domestic airliner, if you can not understand that well i can not do anything for you
and the same is cityjet from Ireland

Partnering with Russia means China is partnering with a nation with some reputation and that people might trust more than an unknown Chinese manufacturer
 
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dingyibvs

Junior Member
b787 said:
Why airliners buy aircraft? first is safety, second is economic efficiency, and third is industrial benefits.

tell me how many Chinese commercial aircraft fly in Iran? none , Russian ? at least the Tu-204, in Cuba how many Chinese commercial aircraft? none at least Tu-154 and Il-96

How many Chinese civilian aircraft are flown in Uzbekistan? none Russian? at least Tu-154, what about North Korea? Chinese aircraft none, Russian at least Tu-204.


Russian aircraft compared to American or European aircraft are not as widely flown, but Chinese aircraft are non existent, do you get it? how many passengers will want to fly in a Chinese aircraft?


people buy tickets simply thinking i will take off and i will land safely, China has no reputation for civil aircraft, Russia`s Tu-154 is flow by several carriers from Europe, Asia, Africa and America even China flies them


A civil aircraft is not a military aircraft, first they do not carry ejection seats and parachutes, third they are flown by 300-400 people, if one or two aircraft crash it is enough to make bad reputation and making airliners and people to do not fly a certain aircraft.


Many airliners will fly Russian aircraft because they know they work

Now entering new markets is harder, S-100 is flown by interjet, a Mexican airliner thaat flies 24 Superjet 100s, the venturing into a market that is usually a market for Embraer or bombardier without any political attachment, is an example of how hard is to sell airliners outside the domestic airliner, if you can not understand that well i can not do anything for you
and the same is cityjet from Ireland

Partnering with Russia means China is partnering with a nation with some reputation and that people might trust more than an unknown Chinese manufacturer
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It's hard selling airliners outside the domestic market, I just don't see how the Russians can help. A few Tu's exported decades ago is not worth the trouble of a partnership. The performance of the C919 will go much further in establishing China's reputation to civilian airliners than a partnership with Russia, who doesn't have the greatest reputation anyway.
 
b787

b787

Captain
dingyibvs said:
It's hard selling airliners outside the domestic market, I just don't see how the Russians can help. A few Tu's exported decades ago is not worth the trouble of a partnership. The performance of the C919 will go much further in establishing China's reputation to civilian airliners than a partnership with Russia, who doesn't have the greatest reputation anyway.
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hard to sell? what about the E-190 family most aircraft have been sold outside Brazil, same Bombardier aircraft that sells its aircraft mostly outside Canada.

The Chinese like the Russians need to sell outside their own domestic markets, because the domestic market is never enough, do you think any one outside China will fly an C-919 if it never breaks in the international market.

Same is for any other contemporary aircraft, if the MRJ only is sells in Japan who will be interested? the Domestic market can be a way to protect your industry, but once your technology is over protected like in the case of the Soviet industry, you get the problems Russia got, Tu-204s the never could compete because Russia never had B-767 or A-330 type aircraft, and Tu-154 a contemporary of B-737 never could compete in equal terms to modernized B-737.

When a model breaks into the international market if it is successful it will cheapen its unit price tag and the development costs, further more, forcing your airliners to buy domestic does not work, Russia has paid dearly for such mistake, they are trying to compete in a segment of the market controlled by Boeing and Airbus because Russian airliners dumped the practice and started buying western types just for economy and efficiency.

Add C919 is competing with E-195s, CS-100s, MRJs and MS-21.
The one who sells the most of aircraft gets the best reputation with airliners the public and has the most money to invest in new variants and models and can offer cheaper jets.
 
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dingyibvs

Junior Member
I'm not disagreeing with any of those things, I just don't see how Russia's paltry overseas sales is gonna be of any help, at least not to the extent of warranting a partnership.
 
SamuraiBlue

SamuraiBlue

Captain
Actually it's all about the supply chain.
COMAC doesn't have one outside of China while Russia does even if it's a very thin one.Like I had said before, for passenger airliners maintenance is very important and a long haul plane like 929 you'll need a maintenance site where you arrive as much as you depart.
 
b787

b787

Captain
dingyibvs said:
I'm not disagreeing with any of those things, I just don't see how Russia's paltry overseas sales is gonna be of any help, at least not to the extent of warranting a partnership.
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start with the investment, why do you think Russia started with Sukhoi Superjet?
Russia already has the Il-96, the reason is the investment, larger the aircraft requieres more investment, because the aircraft are pushing the limits, so they started like China with the ARJ-21, but with Sukhoi superjet, and later with Ms-21, these aircraft can be built in larger numbers and are more in demand the chances they can recover the investment is higher.

In Europe was the same, all partners of Airbus can make aircraft by their own, but duplicating programs means you pay the whole investment, China will pay 50% and Russia 50% going alone means paying 100% and competing for smaller market allotted to each company going alone .

Sharing means sharing profits but also reducing risks.


Further more China has no experience, Russia already build the Il-96, has exported commercial jets, has some prestige.


The fact is COMAC understand that, so they so Russia as a partner, you like it or not Russia has much more experience but in modern times aircraft are becoming more and more expensive, so even Boeing goes to Japan and shares some work with them so they can sell more.Consider Japan has made the parts allotted to more than 3000 Boeing aircraft, yes you might think Japan is second fiddle to the USA, but it is not since the B-767, going up to the B-787 all these aircraft have parts made in Japan.

Russia`s UAC and China understand that, so like Airbus, Embraer or Boeing/japanese airspace are doing, going on a joint venture is much better than going alone/

Aircraft like B-777 are more expensive than B-737, you can make more money by unit airplane sold true but the investment risk is higher
 
Equation

Equation

Lieutenant General
No China can go it alone if it wanted to, it's Europe, Russia, and the US doesn't want to see a real meaningful competitor by restricting the market with FAA rulings. Russian definitely can't do it alone that's why they needed Chinese money. Similar to Russia's T-50 PAK-FA that needed a partner in order to get it the program going and it's NOT doing any better than China's J-20.
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
Equation said:
No China can go it alone if it wanted to, it's Europe, Russia, and the US doesn't want to see a real meaningful competitor by restricting the market with FAA rulings. Russian definitely can't do it alone that's why they needed Chinese money. Similar to Russia's T-50 PAK-FA that needed a partner in order to get it the program going and it's NOT doing any better than China's J-20.
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Unlike Boeing or Airbus, China can not go fully alone on commercial jetliners at this point in time, not even close. It can't make Trent 1000 or GNex turbofans for large aircrafts, nor can it make CFM56 engines for planes like the C-919. It will be decades before China could go it alone and be completely self-sufficient. All this isn't to say China Aviation hasn't made tremendous progress, it obviously has, but going alone is an entirely different matter.
 
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Pmichael

Junior Member
Aerospace is a multinational thing, so why is "going alone" somekind of benchmark here? Boeing's planes aren't 100% Made in the USA.

China is increasing the amount of domestic parts of their planes at an incredible pace. It's in fact Russia that is dealing with losing the ability of producing own domestic wide body twinjet airliners right now.
 
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