Chinese Aviation Industry

Richard Santos said:

Russia experience in designing competitive passenger liners may seem deficient next to those of airbus and Boeing, but their experience is still greater than those of the Chinese by a larger margin than theirs might be less than those of airbus and Boeing. Their last wide body passenger liner is the Il-96. Previously they have produced a number of wide and narrow body modern passenger jet liners that, while not all together competitive in efficiency, nonetheless meet all international standard. Examples include IL-86, Il-62, Tu-204, Tu-154, etc.

In the field of airliner design and production on a scale of 1 through 10, Boeing and airbus might be 9.5. Anything less than 9 is not probably not really competitive. The Russians may be 8.5. The Chinese at the moment might be 6-7. It is not a bad idea to leverage Russian experience to get to 8.5 quickly.

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When did the Russia design the II-96? How good was it at the time? How much of the technologies from II-96 are still applicable today? Did Russia have any other wide-body passenger airliner design experience since? How old are the people who were involved in the II-96 project?

I don't think technologies are the primary reasons for China to form the joint-venture with Russia. You would think China has gained tremendous experiences after ARJ-21, C919, and Y-20, any experiences and relevant technologies brought by Russia on wide-body passenger aircraft, while helpful, are rather limited and are not something that China can not overcome by their own efforts. Relative to the potential risks and challenges such joint-venture could encounter, the benefits are not large enough. Someone also mentioned about financial, I think that's even less a reason than experiences and technologies.

The question then is what exactly are the reasons China decided to pursue such a path instead of going it alone? I believe SamuraiBlue touched on above one key reason: market and marketing. C929 is not C919, which has much larger demands and the Chinese domestic market alone can absorb a large number of them to make it close to commercially viable. C929, instead, is much larger and longer range, and is therefore not meant for domestic market. China needs a partner that can bring both some demand and credibility for marketing purpose. Russia is the best, realistically speaking, candidate partner out there.

The other reason is international politics. A strategic program like this one binds the two nations more closely. The trading relationship between the two countries is a bit too one-sided.

Having said the above, I feel that this partnership is fraught with risks and potential roadblocks.

longmarch said:

C929 is the most disappointing news in many many years.

Buying a few su-35 is fine for me but this one really sucks big time.

Most important subsystems will always come from the west, makes you wonder what Russia has to offer, and what COMAC is lacking, or capable of.

I'm downgrading China's aerospace industry to automobile level, at least civilian wise.

Very depressing.

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I agree with you.

I guess this is perhaps due to the so-called "residual effect" from "the old comrades", who received their education in the soviet union, and have a favourable memory of it.

Russia has very little to offer, Russia is also a very difficult partner who has a miserable record in honoring its commitments.

Airbus's joint venture in China is way more important than whatever Russia can bring to the table. It's not even funny how behind Russia is in engineering and technolgy.

This can only be a result of China often acting to conservative and unambitious

Everyone here seems to want to put down the Russians. But the Russians still have more experience than China does building passenger planes since they have been doing it for decades now and China just got started. The Russians may not be up to the level of Boeing and Airbus but they still have useful skills and technologies that China still lacks or is very weak at as of this moment. The Russians maybe more willing to share some of those things with China than Airbus and Boeing are willing to do. So China still can learn a lot from its cooperation with the Russians. Its not about the C-929 plane today but its about the future.

Franklin said:

But the Russians still have more experience than China building passenger planes since they have been doing it for decades now and China just got started.

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No. The Soviets had done it for decades. The Russian has done nichts since the collapse of Soviet Union. As technologies advance, and aviation standards become more stringent, the know-hows that Russia inherited are becoming ever more irrelevant. What I think is the most useful role that Russia will play in C929 project is this: Russia can threaten to cut off natural gas supply to Europe in the middle of winter, should EASA drags its feet in issuing an operational certificate.

The last thing I want to see is China's aerospace industry becoming another automobile industry, a total disaster, never growing up and not even trying.

And they are all "joint" adventures. Joint my ass.

You can give me a thousand reasons, but workings with Russians and the talk of buying into Bombardier tells plenty about COMAC's confidence and capabilities.

And no I'm not being disrespectful to Russians. I admire them and they are a great people. Just take a look at the latest ACM programming contest, 4 Russian universities end up in final top 10, with China followed with 3. And I've never had problem with su-35 deal, because China does have things to learn.

But it is not about what Russia can do, it is about what COMAC representing China can and want to do, and I only see a lack of spirit, not just from this single event, but as a whole, just like automobile industry. They think they can get there by throwing money, by doing cheap things fast instead of developing core capabilities and attack the problem head on like it's military sibling. and they will never get there with this kind of thinking.

That's what I'm mostly disappointed about.

longmarch said:

The last thing I want to see is China's aerospace industry becoming another automobile industry, a total disaster, never growing up and not even trying.

And they are all "joint" adventures. Joint my ass.

You can give me a thousand reasons, but workings with Russians and the talk of buying into Bombardier tells plenty about COMAC's confidence and capabilities.

And no I'm not being disrespectful to Russians. I admire them and they are a great people. Just take a look at the latest ACM programming contest, 4 Russian universities end up in final top 10, with China followed with 3. And I've never had problem with su-35 deal, because China does have things to learn.

But it is not about what Russia can do, it is about what COMAC representing China can and want to do, and I only see a lack of spirit, not just from this single event, but as a whole, just like automobile industry. They think they can get there by throwing money, by doing cheap things fast instead of developing core capabilities and attack the problem head on like it's military sibling. and they will never get there with this kind of thinking.

That's what I'm mostly disappointed about.

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Not going to happen. Unlike the auto industry the aerospace industry is seen as a strategic industry and will get the priority and resources to match.

longmarch said:

The last thing I want to see is China's aerospace industry becoming another automobile industry, a total disaster, never growing up and not even trying.

And they are all "joint" adventures. Joint my ass.

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IMO, the reason why the chinese domestic auto industry fails, is because its largely made up of SOE´s that care mostly to keep a domestic industrial base and jobs, and not so much quality brands and profits. Some private firms are the exception: Great wall motors, geely, BYD

vincent said:

When was the last time Russkie designed and built a wide-body passenger aircraft? Where are those expertises now?

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Ilyushin Il-96, first flight 1988. The expertise is still in Russia, I think.
China has not yet designed and built. C929 would be the first Chinese effort.
I don't think being overly proud is Chinese character.

taxiya said:

Ilyushin Il-96, first flight 1988. The expertise is still in Russia, I think.
China has not yet designed and built. C929 would be the first Chinese effort.
I don't think being overly proud is Chinese character.

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Pretty sure the design team are all retired by now