Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
It has been more than a week since the line is open and sofar the public is happy some thing need to be ironed out
China's Westward One Belt One Road Strategy
- Thread starter tidalwave
- Start date
Blackstone
Brigadier
So far so good, but let's see what happens in 6 months when there are more data points for evaluation.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
I don't foresee any problem for the next 5 years since the Chinese company awarded contract for operation and maintenance for 5 years while training and supervising the Kenyan to take over eventually
So all the driver and maintenance personnel, railway engineer are still Chinese for the next 5 years
Guess they learn the lesson from Tanzania railway. You just can't built and leave there must be some transition time
But Kenya is well orderly States with strong british institution in place
Blackstone
Brigadier
Maintenance is only part of SGR's future, ROI is another. Can the Kenya RR operate at a profit, and at a rate to pay off loans at the appointed time?
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
That is the fallacy of western critic they only look thing thru narrow lenses and missed the big picture
ROI based on what Ticket sale and freight cost?. Of course looking only at those 2 it doesn't make sense
But if you look at larger picture like reducing transport cost by 40 to 50% and speeding up the travel time between Nairobi and port city of Mombassa and increase the efficiency of the port and avoid delay
Alleviating traffic jam and with it the attended cost of wasted gasoline, wear an tear on truck, Lost time
Spurring the development of industrial estate along the railway. Increasing the value of real estate along the line
Improving tourism and hospitality industry
Facilitating connectivity between neighboring country
Training and improving the skill of 23000 Kenyan in modern railroad and communication
Fostering industrialization etc, etc
It was estimated that the Kenya GDP will increase by 1-1/5% because of the railway
The answer to your question is BIG YES! They will recoup the investment cost in no time
Blackstone
Brigadier
You're off base in the Kenya SGR case, because it is Kenyans themselves questioning cost vs. benefit, and it is the Kenyan government that has produced videos and news infomercials to assure Kenyans the SGR would be profitable and a good investment for the country.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Because those Kenyan are reading the western NGO analysis, Western media and eat them alive without critical thinking. I guess new york time run an article critical of the railway
Notice the sour grape tone
It has proven the world over that improving infrastructure generate wealth
Blackstone
Brigadier
I'll venture a guess and say average Kenyans probably don't read the New York Slime newspaper or listen to Western NGOs. Instead, they probably get their SGR information from local sources and listen to pro-con debates from their own politicians and news media.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Where are those politician and media, Academic get their information
You guess it Reuter, AFP, associated press, CNN
That is what I meant by the Kenyan not the people on the street. They are just foot soldier
Blackstone
Brigadier
Humm, I'm not comfortable with your definition of Kenyans. But, putting that aside, most politicians and academics are smart, well educated, and successful people, and could read financial statements and make sophisticated analysis. I don't expect any different from Kenyan politicians, educators, and professional journalists.