Re: China's transport plane capacities
Russians offers help with WS-13 because that's the only way to get any order from PLAAF. PLAAF weren't high on FC-1 anyway, a Russian engine will kill it. That's why WS-13 was developed. For Klimov, helping with WS-13 is very logical, getting only a piece of the pie is better than having none at all.
so you got your theory that they got help for WS-13 because plaaf would otherwise not place any FC-1 order? So, now Klimov went from having 250 PAF orders + orders around the world to only 100 orders? Brilliant, Klimov is getting more smart.
As for China's own "high bypass turbofan", that's nothing but vapor ware. If they have it already, then the new Large aircraft project would not have included the need to develop China's own high bypass turbofan. WS-15 is pretty much in the same category as it's just RUMORED to be developed and has years to go before even turned on for the first time. WS-10A is low bypass engine designed for fighters and it's thrust is not enough when compared to D-30.
Have you read any of the stuff I posted in the WS-10 engine thread? Maybe you should go through that first.
Russians don't control them. But most of the parts are produced in Russia, and the Russian government certainly controls those. Plus, the factory wanted to sell blueprints precisely because Russia had cut off their supplies of parts and support, so how are they going to help China getting parts when they can't do that themselves?
No, they wanted to sell blueprints and the tooling and the production line because they were being bypassed. Orders for IL-76 were no longer given to them.
That IL-76 Phalcan were constructed from a stock IL-76 airframe, using a plan modified from basic A-50 setup, but not modified from an existing A-50. It's hard to imagine China not had at least some liaison officers in Russia to observe the modification process and reviewing the plans. So China definitely had the technical information on how that modification took place. But just for the sake of argument say they DIDN'T get it. The Israelis deal were canceled in year 2000, and KJ-2000 was flying at around 2006 or 2007. That's 6 years from start of project, assuming they only started it AFTER the cancellation of Phalcon, to an actual example flying. That's 6 years to complete the modification project, using all those modern equipment you were talking about, and using experience gained through servicing them and operating them. Don't you think setting up a complete new production line would take just as long, if not longer than a modification project?
IL-76 Phalcon? They are called A-50I everywhere for a reason, why don't you find a legitimate link that said IL-76 Phalcon?
this is according to sinodefence:
China started a three-way talk with Israel and Russia, the country’s two traditional suppliers of weapon systems and technologies, in 1994 for a possible purchase of advanced AWACS aircraft. The project involved acquisition of the Russian-made Beriev A-50 Mainstay Airframe, and to fit it with the Phalcon airborne early warning (AEW) radar and associated C3I system developed by Israeli Aircraft Industries Ltd (IAI). In 1996 China, Russia, and Israel reached initial agreement on a US$250 million deal to supply one such AWACS aircraft to the PLA Air Force (PLAAF).
In May 1997, Israel and Russia reached agreement on modifying one A-50 for $250 million, with the option of three more AWACS for a total cost of $1 billion. Russia secured about 20 percent of the deal. After some delay, in October 1999, Russia transferred an A-50 airframe to Israel for the installation of the Phalcon AEW radar system. By May 2000, Israel had nearly completed work on the aircraft under the designation A-50I.
KJ-2000 first flew in 2003 and already had the first trial regiment of 4 by end of 2005.
Again, J-11B is a sanction modification as permitted in the original purchasing contract for Su-27. It's flying only some 15 years after the start of license production agreement, where the Russian provided all the technical document, production tooling and 100% of parts initially needed to produce and service Su-27, and provided assistance each step of the way until SAC mastered the skills needed to produce them. Surely that proves that China can copy IL-76 within 2 years after receiving blueprints and production documents?
I think not.
Have you read all the recent articles where the Russians are freaking out about Chinese competing with them with J-11B? Have you read articles where the Russians said that they have no idea what is going with the J-11B program or how many are being produced? 15 years after the start of licensing production agreement? They didn't sign the contract until 1996 and J-11B achieved IOC at the end of 2007. Does that sound like 15 years? And no, Chinese aerospace industry has advanced from the 90s, something that would take them that much time back in the days would not be the case now.
Yet again, you have no proof behind your conclusion, and it doesn't fit China's track record. Take ARJ-21 for example, the project started in 2002, and even with all the assistance from foreign companies on ALL the critical subsystems, (Antonov on the wing, GE on the engine, Rockwell (or was it Honeywell) on the avionics), using existing production tooling left from MD-90 project, the first flight of the prototype is only going to take place by March of this year. That's six years from start of project to first flight. Yet you believe that on a much more complex project (the new large transport), without foreign help from the West(since military project can't receive their help), it's going to take shorter time than the much simpler ARJ-21. Let's put it this way, it's NOT going to happen.
I think you just refuted your own statement here. China would go for IL-76 only if can be done far faster than their own. So 2 years as stated by someone above and which you apparently agree to is not fast enough? Remember, that's 5 years ahead of your own very optimistic prediction on getting a new aircraft. So 5 years plus the track record of a mature design isn't as attractive as a new design. That could only mean one thing: There isn't too much time difference between copying IL-76 and getting a new design.
they are getting help from Antonov on the transport. Haven't you read? Maybe you should go back a few pages, search through the antonov containing posts to see how much cooperation there will be between Antonov and AVIC? They are getting Western avionics + engine, because they can and they need it for FAA. For their military fighters, bombers and transport, they haven't got those Western suppliers, did any of their project ever got delayed because of that?
As for the schedule wise, they've already announced that the civilian airliner is to be ready before 2020. Transport is a far more urgent project, so they are devoting a lot of resource for it. Consider just the engine side of things, as soon as the high bypass engine achieves design certification, they will be able to put it on their military transport. However, they will not be able to make modifications and put it on an airliner until much later when it becomes reliable and mature. Otherwise, how can it compete with the fuel efficiency and reliability of CFM series?
As for me refuting my statement, I simply stated that I don't see the need for this interim IL-76 solution and I don't think they will go for it, because it's an old platform. And a lot of your previous arguments don't reflect the reality of AVIC1. And no, I don't think it can be completely cloned and certified in 2 years, but I certainly think your statements about taking 20 years and then 5 + 5 years to be based on older examples where China had no discernible aerospace industry.
