China's transport, tanker & heavy lift aircraft - esp. Y-20/YY-20

Deino said:

Yes, but IMO these are unlikely still Y-20As since their numbers were getting smaller thru 2024 ... if I remember correctly, then in October only 4 Y/YY-20A vs 11 Y-20B were seen and in June there have been 9 Y/YY-20A vs 6 Y-20B.

So I think it seems at least more likely and reasonable to assume, until the end of 2024 the final Y/YY-20As were delivered or are due to be so and production of the Y-20B was ramped up.

Click to expand...

Nice! Deino, what do you think is the yearly production? We see from the sat photos of around 15-20 Y-20s parked at XAC in different months. Obviously, not every aircraft seen is delivered at the end of each month. But if new aircraft are rotated out per month then the rate could be upwards of 100. Conversely at the other end of things, if aircraft are kept until the end of year before delivery (unlikely because of change in mix of A and B models) then production could be 15 - 20 per year.

GiantPanda said:

It would make sense to mass produce in large numbers since the Y-20 now has its intended engines. Though it is impossible to tell if those are Y-20Bs.

That said, I recall that there were satellite pictures of XAC having similar numbers of Y-20s parked on its grounds before so even Y-20A was produced at a pretty good clip.

Click to expand...

Sounds like XAC's annual output for the Y-20 in general and the Y-20B in particular, moving forward, will largely be determined by the 606 Institute's capacity for and AECC's general ability to ramp up production of the WS-20 turbofan.

sunnymaxi said:

WS-20 is in full scale production.. they have pulsating assembly line means this process greatly reduced assembly time of single machine.

and Y-20A doesn't make sense now.. so mostly all these Y-20s are equipped with WS-20 engines.

Click to expand...

Any idea what the current quarterly or annual output for the WS-20 is looking like?

Not trying to be dismissive, but a little surprised the WS-20 has already reached full scale production, granted it is by no means implausible.

zyklon said:

Sounds like XAC's annual output for the Y-20 in general and the Y-20B in particular, moving forward, will largely be determined by the 606 Institute's capacity for and AECC's general ability to ramp up production of the WS-20 turbofan.



Any idea what the current quarterly or annual output for the WS-20 is looking like?

Not trying to be dismissive, but a little surprised the WS-20 has already reached full scale production, granted it is by no means implausible.

Click to expand...

WS-20 is in production at least since late 2022 but on small scale.. they didn't reach full scale production of WS-20 overnight.

in 2021, AECC Shenyang completed the pulsating assembly line of WS-20.



due to this advanced process, single unit of WS-20 assembly time shortened by 2/3. speed has improved less assembly rework and turnover waste have achieved resulting in balance production and high volume delivery..

Shenyang didn't mention yearly production rate of WS-20 but WS-20 shared same lineage as WS-10 so engine will use same supply chain. as we know how many units of WS-10 they are producing annually so you can guess. its all depend on XAC now how many units of Y-20 they can produce. AECC Shenyang can deliver as many units as XAC want.