Nice! Deino, what do you think is the yearly production? We see from the sat photos of around 15-20 Y-20s parked at XAC in different months. Obviously, not every aircraft seen is delivered at the end of each month. But if new aircraft are rotated out per month then the rate could be upwards of 100. Conversely at the other end of things, if aircraft are kept until the end of year before delivery (unlikely because of change in mix of A and B models) then production could be 15 - 20 per year.
China's transport, tanker & heavy lift aircraft - esp. Y-20/YY-20
- Thread starter Totoro
- Start date
Nice! Deino, what do you think is the yearly production? We see from the sat photos of around 15-20 Y-20s parked at XAC in different months. Obviously, not every aircraft seen is delivered at the end of each month. But if new aircraft are rotated out per month then the rate could be upwards of 100. Conversely at the other end of things, if aircraft are kept until the end of year before delivery (unlikely because of change in mix of A and B models) then production could be 15 - 20 per year.
Sounds like XAC's annual output for the Y-20 in general and the Y-20B in particular, moving forward, will largely be determined by the 606 Institute's capacity for and AECC's general ability to ramp up production of the WS-20 turbofan.
Any idea what the current quarterly or annual output for the WS-20 is looking like?
Not trying to be dismissive, but a little surprised the WS-20 has already reached full scale production, granted it is by no means implausible.
WS-20 is in production at least since late 2022 but on small scale.. they didn't reach full scale production of WS-20 overnight.
in 2021, AECC Shenyang completed the pulsating assembly line of WS-20.
due to this advanced process, single unit of WS-20 assembly time shortened by 2/3. speed has improved less assembly rework and turnover waste have achieved resulting in balance production and high volume delivery..
Shenyang didn't mention yearly production rate of WS-20 but WS-20 shared same lineage as WS-10 so engine will use same supply chain. as we know how many units of WS-10 they are producing annually so you can guess. its all depend on XAC now how many units of Y-20 they can produce. AECC Shenyang can deliver as many units as XAC want.
100x Y(Y)-20Bs (and KJ-3000s) per year is likely to be too many for such a large military aircraft - And also likely to be too much for Xi'an AC, which actually has other concurrent projects and products to tend to, namely:
- Fulfill any remaining orders for the H-6K/J/N;
- Fulfill any outstanding orders for the MA-60/600;
- Get the MA-700 to fly with WJ-10s; and
- Get the ever-mystique H-20 into the skies.
Speaking of production rates - There are only two jet-powered aircrafts that are of comparable roles to the Y-20 with significantly higher average annual production rates over their entire production runs, historically:
1. KC-135 Stratotanker, with 803 built from 1955 to 1965 = 73 airframes per year, and
2. C-141 Starlifter, with 285 built from 1963 to 1968 = 47.5 airframes per year.
There is also the Il-76, which could have considerably high level of annual production rates during the Soviet-era (maybe ~30-40 airframes per year).
However, it should be noted that:
1. Both the KC-135 and C-141 only have MTOWs of around 140+ tons (compared to the Y-20's 220+ tons MTOW (and more for MRTT/tanker variants)); and
2. Both the KC-135 and C-141 are less complex and challenging to engineer and build back then compared to modern day counterparts.
Therefore, while China certainly does have acute need for the Y-20 family (including variants), somewhere between/around 50 to 70 airframes per year could be a safe upper ceiling bet/estimation.
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If that's the case then China will have more Strategic airlift than the US in a few very short years, if Scramble.nl is to be believed there are currently 102 Y-20(With quite possibly even more currently awaiting delivery parked at the factory) of all variants active including aerial refueling variants. If production is truly 50-70 airframes per year then the number of Y-20s will easily surpass the 222 C-17 that the US has active. This could mean quite a significant boost for PLA strategic deployment. Speaking of which is there any news on the next generation tactical transport? Since it seems that the Y-9 still lags behind C-130s in both range/payload and numbers.
lcloo
Major
You cannot use production rates per year to calculate the total number of Y20 in certain future years. There is only one customer at the moment, the total number will depend on the needs and purchase orders from PLAAF to Xian AVIC.
In C-17's case, the total order accepted was 227 units and therafter they decided not to accept any more orders and shut down the production lines. This is the case of "we will only make 227 C-17 disregard of the production capacity and annual production rate".
How many Y20's will be produced over how many years into the future depends on how many Y20 and Y20 derivative that PLAAF needs.
The production rates will surge to meet orders of PLAAF, and therafter the production rates will go down to meet supplemtary orders of both transport and specialised variants and possibly orders from foreign customers.
The point is, we have no clear idea how long they are standing at XAC on the ramp before they are delivered. As such to try to conclude "new aircraft are rotated out per month then the rate could be upwards of 100" is as wrong as to think they "are kept until the end of year before delivery".
If you look at Scramble's list in the Database, when a new aircraft was see for the first and how many as such per month or maybe even quarter, we have a much better chance of estimating a realistic production rate. This is surely not 100% correct since we are always late, but still better (IMO):
For example ...
Y-20A transports were seen according to this:
3 in 2016 / 1 in 2017 / 2 in 2018 / 1 in 2019 / 15 in 2020 / 10 in 2021 / 12 in 2022 / 8 in 2023 / 1 in 2024
YY-20A tanker were seen according to this:
2 in 2021 / 2 in 2022 / 5 in 2023 / 16 in 2024 / 1 so far in 2025
in summary per year:
3 in 2016 / 1 in 2017 / 2 in 2018 / 1 in 2019 / 15 in 2020 / 12 in 2021 / 14 in 2022 / 13 in 2023 / 17 in 2024 / 1 in 2025
PS: Just added!
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Not sure where you see so many at Scramble?!
4th Div/12th Reg: 24 recorded
13th Div/37th Reg: 29 recorded
13th Div/38th Reg: 33 recorded (of which IMO not only the first two were renumbered! ... I have 26 realistically confirmed)
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86 maximum ... 79 realistically
Yes, several times already.
China's transport, tanker & heavy lift aircraft - esp. Y-20/YY-20
How come no winglet? What, you want the "C-17 copy" rhetoric to be even worse?
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