China's strategy in Korean peninsula

SamuraiBlue · Apr 15, 2016

Bltizo said:
Technically correct, but I think you're being a little bit naive to equate the willingness of other nations to impose trade sanctions on Russia vs the same willingness to impose sanctions on China.

The ability to wage economic warfare is quite related to the degree of importance of the target nation both as an importer of one's own products vs being an exporter of goods -- in other words it is not merely about what China can export to other nations for their demands, but also what other nations wants to export to China for their own economic growth. In other words, by sanctioning China they're losing a major market for their own goods, and they'll have to weigh those losses in GDP.

That can effectively be summed up by the place in which various nation ranks China in terms of their "most important" trading partners, and depending on where one looks, about 124 nations or territories consider China to be their most important trading partner (from 2012), not to mention China having taken the mantle of the world's largest trading nation about two years ago in 2014.
I'm not sure how many nations counted Russia as their most important trade partner back in 2013 before the sanctions began in 2014, but I think it would be reasonable to assume that they would be far less.

So it may well be possible for various nations around the world to try and place economic sanctions on China, but you are kidding yourself if you think it would be anywhere near as painless as placing sanctions on Russia. It would require substantially more political resolve as well as carry significant more economic damage to the nations doing the sanctioning as well due to the loss of China as an export market and Chinese economic retaliation.

Do you know what the first thing they will do?
They will freeze overseas asset of high ranking CPC officials and business figures that are close to power. This includes family members as well and since many of the Tax havens are now closed it going to be very difficult to do any behind doors negotiations with it.
Next modern sanctions are selective so neither side suddenly collapses but many of advanced components and sub-components will be banned so maintaining a military becomes a problem. Just by stopping shipments of ball barrings is enough to sabotage various equipment since we all know that PRC ones are sub par with a High ranking official openly criticizing PRC's defective ones saying PRC can't even manufacture the same quality ball point pens as the Japanese and PRC requires to import them.
At the end it's going to be a big chicken race but the rest of the world has a big advantage.
Ohh, I almost forgot many of the rival companies competing with PRC rivals would love to see PRC being placed under sanction being able to fill in the void.

vesicles · Apr 15, 2016

SamuraiBlue said:
Do you know what the first thing they will do?
They will freeze overseas asset of high ranking CPC officials and business figures that are close to power. This includes family members as well and since many of the Tax havens are now closed it going to be very difficult to do any behind doors negotiations with it.
Next modern sanctions are selective so neither side suddenly collapses but many of advanced components and sub-components will be banned so maintaining a military becomes a problem. Just by stopping shipments of ball barrings is enough to sabotage various equipment since we all know that PRC ones are sub par with a High ranking official openly criticizing PRC's defective ones saying PRC can't even manufacture the same quality ball point pens as the Japanese and PRC requires to import them.
At the end it's going to be a big chicken race but the rest of the world has a big advantage.
Ohh, I almost forgot many of the rival companies competing with PRC rivals would love to see PRC being placed under sanction being able to fill in the void.

You haven't gotten the point.

It is the huge Chinese market. Any change of China's economic environment will damage the financial bottom line of almost every nation in the world.

Using your example of Japanese ballpoint pen. What will the Japanese manufacturers do when millions of pen orders suddenly vanishes? Where else do they go to find another market that is remotely close to the size of China's? Simply impossible. The same can be said of almost any international manufacturer who is now selling to the Chinese.

About freezing assets of CCP officials. Yes, theoretically, you can do it. But these officials usually hold a lot of power in the Chinese government. They can influence decision making in China. They can also threaten the nation's doing the sanction with higher tariffs and other harsh economic policies toward the nation's doing sanctions. In the end, those nations will suffer as well. Then, politicians will lose donations when their interest groups stop supporting them.

Blitzo · Apr 15, 2016

SamuraiBlue said:
Do you know what the first thing they will do?
They will freeze overseas asset of high ranking CPC officials and business figures that are close to power. This includes family members as well and since many of the Tax havens are now closed it going to be very difficult to do any behind doors negotiations with it.
Next modern sanctions are selective so neither side suddenly collapses but many of advanced components and sub-components will be banned so maintaining a military becomes a problem. Just by stopping shipments of ball barrings is enough to sabotage various equipment since we all know that PRC ones are sub par with a High ranking official openly criticizing PRC's defective ones saying PRC can't even manufacture the same quality ball point pens as the Japanese and PRC requires to import them.
At the end it's going to be a big chicken race but the rest of the world has a big advantage.
Ohh, I almost forgot many of the rival companies competing with PRC rivals would love to see PRC being placed under sanction being able to fill in the void.

Oh, I have no doubt that if a group of nations were very, very determined they could use combined economic+political warfare to effectively sanction China and maybe even try to strategically economically attack high ranking officials... assuming they were willing to stomach significant economic consequences themselves and inevitable Chinese economic retaliation.

Still, I can understand why the fantasy of certain nations enacting punitive economic measures against China may be appealing to you, but realistically it would be a costly endeavour (not impossible, but costly) -- and far more difficult for nations initiating the sanctions compared to sanctioning against Russia.
So here, I'd also like to go back to your previous post, which seemed to assert that the world could somehow conduct economic sanctions against China as easily as western nations did towards Russia, is incorrect and I think I had provided sufficient premises to support my conclusion in my last post -- so the fact that you are no longer pushing this particular avenue of argument makes me assume that you concede you were incorrect.

And with year after year as China's economy continues to grow in importance to the other economies of the world both as an exporter and an importer, the difficulty of trying to enact economic sanctions against China will get harder, and harder and harder.
I'd also like to say that I'm not saying it's impossible for those nations to conduct sanctions against China. It just means they would have to be very, very determined and willing to suffer their own economic consequences and economic retaliation from China as well.

SamuraiBlue · Apr 15, 2016

vesicles said:
Using your example of Japanese ballpoint pen. What will the Japanese manufacturers do when millions of pen orders suddenly vanishes? Where else do they go to find another market that is remotely close to the size of China's? Simply impossible. The same can be said of almost any international manufacturer who is now selling to the Chinese.

About freezing assets of CCP officials. Yes, theoretically, you can do it. But these officials usually hold a lot of power in the Chinese government. They can influence decision making in China. They can also threaten the nation's doing the sanction with higher tariffs and other harsh economic policies toward the nation's doing sanctions. In the end, those nations will suffer as well. Then, politicians will lose donations when their interest groups stop supporting them.

Wasn't talking about the pen but the balls that's in them. They are the same balls that keeps engines rotating without jittering and various mechanism that maintains stability in all rotating objects.
I hear PRC still requires importing them from Japan especially the high precision ones that requires to be as close to a perfect sphere as possible. The machine will work without them but will require more maintenance in shorter intervals with lot less accuracy.

Influence now a days is bought and without that slash fund in off shore banks it becomes very difficult to do without exposing yourself in the process.

As for peace time economic warfare, tariffs has become very difficult to initiate without WTO intervening making it a bad choice of tactic.

vesicles · Apr 15, 2016

SamuraiBlue said:
Wasn't talking about the pen but the balls that's in them. They are the same balls that keeps engines rotating without jittering and various mechanism that maintains stability in all rotating objects.
I hear PRC still requires importing them from Japan especially the high precision ones that requires to be as close to a perfect sphere as possible. The machine will work without them but will require more maintenance in shorter intervals with lot less accuracy.

Doesn't matter. It is still China's huge market that is important and give people second thought when they contemplate sanctions.

And as the Chinese become wealthier and with more purchasing power, other nations will become increasingly dependent on China's market. it will become increasingly difficult for anyone to sanction China.

SamuraiBlue · Apr 15, 2016

vesicles said:
Doesn't matter. It is still China's huge market that is important and give people second thought when they contemplate sanctions.

And as the Chinese become wealthier and with more purchasing power, other nations will become increasingly dependent on China's market. it will become increasingly difficult for anyone to sanction China.

Don't kid yourself China's market although looks appetizing still not enough to kill off the domestic market.
Basically it's the same as an economic bubble, once people starts realizing it's not worth the trouble they will move their assets to somewhere else. Japan has already moved on and many other are starting to do the same.

Blitzo · Apr 15, 2016

SamuraiBlue said:
Don't kid yourself China's market although looks appetizing still not enough to kill off the domestic market.
Basically it's the same as an economic bubble, once people starts realizing it's not worth the trouble they will move their assets to somewhere else. Japan has already moved on and many other are starting to do the same.

I'm very impressed, you are still managing to make it sound like your original position was standing on solid premises.

Whether a company or a nation will be able to survive and transition after sanctioning China and losing China as an export market is not the issue of contention. After all, depending on the nation and depending on the company, the ease for them to transition after initiation of sanctions may vary.

The issue of contention is how difficult it would be for a nation to decide and try to sanction China to the same degree that various nations sanctioned Russia in 2014. You suggested that it would be as easy for nations to do to China what some nations did to Russia, when you said "neither does PRC" in response to Equation's post saying that Russia did not have much of an economic impact worldwide.

I think vesicles and I have amply shown the premises of why your original position is simplistic at best and virtually categorically false at worst.

vesicles · Apr 15, 2016

SamuraiBlue said:
Don't kid yourself China's market although looks appetizing still not enough to kill off the domestic market.
Basically it's the same as an economic bubble, once people starts realizing it's not worth the trouble they will move their assets to somewhere else. Japan has already moved on and many other are starting to do the same.

LOL. Moving on? To where? What is an alternative that can compare with China in terms of market size? Don't just make empty statements. Give me some concrete evidence.

China is still Japan's #1 or #2 trading partner. So Japan hasn't moved on? Has Toyota pulled out China? What about Honda? And how about Sony?

Why don't you show me some data? Show me that sales of Japanese goods to China have declined. Show me that Japan has stopped Chinese tourists from going to Japan. Any kind of decline would do.

SampanViking · Apr 15, 2016

I think some posts here are getting rather silly (not naming names). If they stay silly moderation may be called for. Lets hope it does not.

It takes years to build modern manufacturing hubs, getting the facilities, the right personnel, the infrastructure and the logistics in place. It also costs the corporations that build them hundreds of millions to do so.
Note the word hub, or of you prefer hotspot or cluster. This is because large companies; even in competition like to "Hub" as this attracts specialist contractors, research companies and general support services, which are the lubrication for excellence and efficiency

These are things you cannot simply pick up and drop down somewhere else overnight!

Sanctions against the PRC might succeed in doing enough damage to knock 1 or 2% of GDP growth, knocking current growth down to 5%.
Trade however is a two way street and if you knock 2% off growth on one side, you will knock it off the other side as well.
How would losing 2% GDP growth effect the national economy where you live?.

vesicles · Apr 15, 2016

Well, I made a mistake. I did a search on Japan exports. And indeed, Japan's exports to China did fall last year, mainly because of China's economic cool down. However, its overall amount of exports to China is still an uptrend. And China is still Japan's #1 trading partner.

What's important is that Japan's overall export fell by a similar % as their exports to China. This means Japan has not moved on. They are simply losing business. And as the result, Japan's overall economy suffered. This is exactly as I have been saying. China's huge market is key to Japan's economy. And the numbers back me up.

China's strategy in Korean peninsula

SamuraiBlue

Captain

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Colonel

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

SamuraiBlue

Captain

vesicles

Colonel

SamuraiBlue

Captain

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

vesicles

Colonel

SampanViking

The Capitalist

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Colonel