China's strategy in Korean peninsula

Janiz said:

Without US SK will go nuclear in no time. The same with Japan.

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You need to read the rest of his statement. There is no SK in that scenario since NK and SK are united. Why would they need nukes then? No threats from anyone in any direction. Besides, small countries like Korea or Japan with nukes are... not that scary. They wouldn't dare misbehave because it really only takes a few return nukes to fully blanket their country. If they decided to trade nukes, it'd be like playing Street Fighter but you start with 5% health and you can't dodge LOL. Having them is symbolic really.

I firmly believe that China should under no circumstances allow a unified Korea under Seoul, even with the promise that American forces are withdrawn due to the inability of democracies to keep promises across leadership swaps. Even if war is the only option, China cannot allow US/SK to simply take out NK and unify.

Has anyone else here entertained the possibility of China simply taking North Korea, Crimea style? If Trump tries to pull another Syria and NK comes into disarray, especially if SK/US decided to strike Pyongyang by Tomahawks and execute a land invasion northwards from 38 parallel simultaneously, NK troops will concentrate there and suffer badly. Wait a bit, then China sends in 300K soldiers across the Yalu (face-off against some leftover NK troops if needed, otherwise offer them and their families amnesty in China, which, is going to be right where they are after this LOL) and grab as much territory as possible. Once they encounter US/SK troops further south, then hold their ground. If the Yanks wanna get nasty, then let's play 1951; everything down to Yeosu's up for grabs. If not, we'll fast-forward to 1953 wherever the new line is. Maybe they'll get all the way to the 38th, maybe not, but certainly they'll get a huge chunk and that will serve nicely as a barrier. When that's done, like I said, just keep it. Don't offer SK any deals on getting it back; don't say we're there to keep the peace until something something; just pull a Russia. It's a lot of people to take care of but if they come with their own land, why not? NK isn't that densely-populated so population/density wise, this would actually be in China's favor. And if the US wants to throw a tantrum with some sanctions, etc..., let it. China's economy isn't as easy to pick on as Russia's and honestly, I'd be surprised if China wasn't ready for a trade war the second Trump was elected. Plus, as a nation I'd take solid territory over artificial cash any day. SK will forever be angry as hell but, whatever. It was their decision to host US troops in Asia at China's doorstep so let them lose half of their country as they deserve. This way, use US action to expand Chinese territory.

I fully expect the Chinese leadership to have the audacity to respond this way in case of an actual attack on NK.

Janiz said:

Without US SK will go nuclear in no time. The same with Japan.

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US want them to remain satellite states.

Would South Korea, whoever has the last word there, prefer to have nukes or reunification. The majority of the people want the second.

And what would the reaction be to a Japan that increases its debt ad absurdum and also goes and acquires nukes? Japan is too weak to be able to do that.

manqiangrexue said:

It was their decision to host US troops in Asia at China's doorstep so let them lose half of their country as they deserve.

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It was not a decision by South Korea to host US forces. South Korea is under US suzerainty. It is a satellite state. The deal is remove all US forces, let North and South Korea be reunited with Chinese help and let Korea be an independent state. No independent Korea will allow US forces to return.

delft said:

US want them to remain satellite states.
Would South Korea, whoever has the last word there, prefer to have nukes or reunification. The majority of the people want the second.

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Also, the US has a history of allies turning into enemies. I wouldn't be too comfortable especially when they've tried to bring up the ghosts of the Japanese Empire to try to scare China today. If they've forgotten the US was Japan's enemy too. Back then the Japanese didn't like taking a back seat to the West after they broke a lot of promises hence why they attacked. Not to mention too even though the West distrusted Russia, they didn't like how it was Japan that defeated Russia. In the hierarchy of things they rather have Russia win. And ally South Korea has a history of anti-American protests. The recent Presidential scandal shows how the people can turn against a pro-American South Korean President... easily.

delft said:

It was not a decision by South Korea to host US forces. South Korea is under US suzerainty. It is a satellite state. The deal is remove all US forces, let North and South Korea be reunited with Chinese help and let Korea be an independent state. No independent Korea will allow US forces to return.

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Are you sure? I think you have SK confused with Japan. Japan has no control over American military presence on its territory. I believe that SK is able to command American forces to leave as they are bound by no WWII master-slave kind of contract. Or do you know of any legal document that takes the power away from SK hands?

Logically, yes, a united and stable Korea should have no inclination to harbor foreign militaries but... do you trust them more or do you trust yourself more? I'd rather hold that land under Chinese control so that certainly no foreign forces would be permitted on it AND also, it would become Chinese territory that can create jobs developing it into a GDP-generating productive province!

manqiangrexue said:

Has anyone else here entertained the possibility of China simply taking North Korea, Crimea style?

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I don't believe China wants that kind of headache. Crimea is full of Russians, not just ethnic Russians, but people who identify with the Russian nation. North Korea is full of North Koreans. The last thing China needs is yet another separatist movement.

The best outcome for China is North Korea becoming capable of economically sustaining itself. China can then safely sever ties with the country without worrying about a regime collapse and the ensuing problems.

North Korea is not a threat to China, and as long as South Korea exists, will not stand against China either. A fully independent NK is the best outcome for China.

No, best case scenario is an unified Korea without American boots on the ground. That can be achieved by China taking over NK, hand it over to SK, and withdraw Chinese troops only when American troops withdraw. The rebuild process in NK will inevitably lead to links magnitudes stronger between China and Korea than between Korea and the US.

solarz said:

I don't believe China wants that kind of headache. Crimea is full of Russians, not just ethnic Russians, but people who identify with the Russian nation. North Korea is full of North Koreans. The last thing China needs is yet another separatist movement.

The best outcome for China is North Korea becoming capable of economically sustaining itself. China can then safely sever ties with the country without worrying about a regime collapse and the ensuing problems.

North Korea is not a threat to China, and as long as South Korea exists, will not stand against China either. A fully independent NK is the best outcome for China.

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Yeah, but that is only a problem when you have an area of land with a highly concentrated local population compared to your native population. 2 points on that. 1. North Korea isn't that densely-populated, especially outside Pyongyang. When Chinese workers rush in, there could easily be more Chinese people there then than North Koreans even now. And 2. When there's fighting, if China opens its gates, North Koreans will flee en mass into China, clearing out the area. They will flee to different areas within China and become diluted into the general Chinese population. As they clear out of NK, NK will be even less populated with North Koreans so when China launches an initiative to populate it with a majority Han population, it will be even easier.

delft said:

South Korea is under US suzerainty.

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Being Dutch yourself you should know the hardships of being satellite state yourself...

manqiangrexue said:

Yeah, but that is only a problem when you have an area of land with a highly concentrated local population compared to your native population. 2 points on that. 1. North Korea isn't that densely-populated, especially outside Pyongyang. When Chinese workers rush in, there could easily be more Chinese people there then than North Koreans even now. And 2. When there's fighting, if China opens its gates, North Koreans will flee en mass into China, clearing out the area. They will flee to different areas within China and become diluted into the general Chinese population. As they clear out of NK, NK will be even less populated with North Koreans so when China launches an initiative to populate it with a majority Han population, it will be even easier.

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Tibet and Xinjiang are also sparsely populated.

However, the real issue is one of legitimacy. The CPC has a narrative of opposing imperialism and defending the sovereignty of nations. Occupying NK would seriously undermine the legitimacy of the CPC, and that is a far more serious threat than even American hositility.