China's strategy in Korean peninsula

taxiya · Oct 13, 2017

Continue #1050 to extend the reason why I put a big question mark to that SK story about "blood bound".

Same people can say opposite words from opposite perspectives, or do opposite things from opposite angles, all to serve the same agenda.

On the one hand (in this story), one (SK) can loud the "NK-China blood-bound" to picture China as an equal devil as NK (a road block to SK lead unification) in front of the SK population. On the other hand, the same person can loud (the opposite) "NK-China's blood-bound is over" to picture that China has abandoned NK, putting a wedge between NK and China, therefor gathering support to what SK leadership is doing. Both acts serve the same purpose, can be done by the very same person/people.

The same tactic can be employed by the opposite SK faction (smaller perhaps), or by NK to serve their purpose. Either to claim NK's strength, or to strengthen Kim's domestic support (yes, adding the narrative of being betrayed by China does improve his image and a good excuse to purge any dissident moderates within NK).

The tactic is just another form of "good cop vs. bad cop", "stick and carrot", "persuasion and threatening" and "candy and knife" etc.

This is why I have said that I don't trust SK media because they are driven by their own (SK) agenda, no matter what that is, it is surely not necessarily in line with China's agenda. The same can be said about the pro-NK factions in China.

I personally like president Moon, but at end of the day, he is firstly SK president, I won't count on his good-will for China's future. He can swing any time if he can not resist Trump's pressure, just like Kim can swing back and forth.

The bottom line is, one does not bet one's life on good-will or bad-will of somebody else.

Phead128 · Oct 14, 2017

taxiya said:
I have read that quotation, it is SK's words, not from Chinese media report or directly from China's Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi or Xi himself. That is all I am saying, I have close to zero confidence to SK's media, I only believe it when Xi or Wang is quoted by CCTV 19:00 news or People's daily.

Here is a quote from FM Wang Yi on the China-NK "lips and teeth" relationship in March, 2017.

"The nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula is mainly between the DPRK and the United States. China is a next-door neighbor with a lips-and-teeth relationship with the peninsula, so we're indispensable to the resolution of the nuclear issue."
- Foreign Minister Wang Yi (March, 2017)
Source:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"According to
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, Xi Jinping said, “China has maintained a blood alliance with North Korea. There have been many changes, yet the relationship has not changed fundamentally.” (July 11, 2017)"

Do you know who is

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

??? It is the South Korea's version of "Blue House", the SK President's Executive office provided the original transcripts of Xi and Moon's conversation..

I have high trust in the official transcripts provided by the SK President himself. Why would the SK President's office lie about what Xi Jinping said?

There is no reason to believe that SK President's Executive Office's original transcripts (publically available) is a lie. Just because MoF doesn't report it doesn't mean it is wrong. Maybe PRC doesn't want to attract attention to the alliance because it's a sensitive time.

Lezt · Oct 15, 2017

Phead128 said:
Here is a quote from FM Wang Yi on the China-NK "lips and teeth" relationship in March, 2017.

Do you know who is
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
??? It is the South Korea's version of "Blue House", the SK President's Executive office provided the original transcripts of Xi and Moon's conversation..

I have high trust in the official transcripts provided by the SK President himself. Why would the SK President's office lie about what Xi Jinping said?

There is no reason to believe that SK President's Executive Office's original transcripts (publically available) is a lie. Just because MoF doesn't report it doesn't mean it is wrong. Maybe PRC doesn't want to attract attention to the alliance because it's a sensitive time.

The transcript say the peninsula, it doesnt necessarily mean NK. The statement is also conaistant with the last few major military intervention on the korean peninsula.

Jura The idiot · Oct 15, 2017

now noticed (dated October 13) the article
China's Trade With North Korea Slumps as Nuclear Sanctions Bite
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Customs says there’s no record of seafood imports in September

United Nations agreed on two rounds of sanctions since August

China’s trade with North Korea slumped in September, amid United Nations sanctions aimed at deterring Kim Jong Un from pursuing his missile and nuclear-weapons program.

Exports to North Korea fell 6.7 percent last month versus a year ago, while imports fell 37.9 percent, customs administration spokesman Huang Songping said at a briefing in Beijing. North Korea’s deficit with China more than tripled in the first nine months of the year from the same period in 2016, to $1.07 billion, he said, without giving further explanation.

With China’s support, the UN has agreed on two rounds of
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
since the beginning of August including bans on North Korean exports of iron, coal, lead, seafood, textiles, and oil import restrictions. The UN stepped up sanctions after Pyongyang fired missiles over Japan and tested its sixth and most powerful nuclear bomb last month.

The breakdown of trade with North Korea was given in response to a reporter’s question at a briefing following publication of China’s overall trade statistics for September. The customs agency doesn’t usually break out North Korean trade data until later in the month.

There are no records of seafood imports from North Korea, while shipments of coal, iron ore and clothing all declined, according to Huang.

Around 90 percent of North Korea’s documented trade was with China in 2016. Beijing been under pressure from the U.S. and others to show it is complying with UN sanctions designed to put an economic squeeze on Kim’s weapons programs. Still, Beijing is reluctant to trigger an economic collapse and chaos over its shared 1,350-kilometer (840-mile) border.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has given a mixed response on the effectiveness of China’s efforts to curb North Korea, will visit Beijing in November. Earlier this month he admonished of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson for "
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
" in seeking negotiations, a goal that the sanctions are designed to help achieve.

Though North Korea’s exports declined via official channels there is evidence that the country is smuggling shipments to and from China. North Koreans use boats, cars, trucks and several rail lines to carry everything from seafood to diesel fuel and mobile phones back and forth across the border, according to a
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
by Bloomberg News.

China’s overall trade with North Korea for the first nine months of the year rose 3.7 percent from a year ago to $4.03 billion, slowing 3.8 percentage point from January through August.

China’s exports to North Korea from January to September rose 20.9 percent to $2.55 billion while imports dropped 16.7 percent to $1.48 billion. The customs agency said it will publish details its trade in specific products with North Korea on Oct. 23.

taxiya · Oct 15, 2017

Phead128 said:
Here is a quote from FM Wang Yi on the China-NK "lips and teeth" relationship in March, 2017.

Wang Yi meant "peninsular" that includes both NK and SK. By using that word China does not accept any side shooting any other side. No preference here.

Do you know who is
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
??? It is the South Korea's version of "Blue House", the SK President's Executive office provided the original transcripts of Xi and Moon's conversation..

I have high trust in the official transcripts provided by the SK President himself. Why would the SK President's office lie about what Xi Jinping said?

There is no reason to believe that SK President's Executive Office's original transcripts (publically available) is a lie. Just because MoF doesn't report it doesn't mean it is wrong. Maybe PRC doesn't want to attract attention to the alliance because it's a sensitive time.

He is a SK official, that is all I care.

I believe more in what the Chinese Foreign Ministry Speaker says than a SK official.
What ever Xi really said behind the door to SK president is only known by Xi himself and SK president. I only believe when Chinese Foreign Ministry confirms it.
I suppose you are Chinese citizen, who would you believe (or willing to believe)? Chinese official or SK official? You can call both side lying if they contradict each other. But I would not assume one side is saying the truth until the other side confirms it. It is a matter of personal choice.

Phead128 · Oct 15, 2017

Lezt said:
The transcript say the peninsula, it doesnt necessarily mean NK. The statement is also conaistant with the last few major military intervention on the korean peninsula.

taxiya said:
Wang Yi meant "peninsular" that includes both NK and SK. By using that word China does not accept any side shooting any other side. No preference here.

Word choice in Chinese diplomacy is incredibly symbolic and carries immense weight. China has to choose it's words very selectively, but the usage of "lips and teeth" means the alliance is still on the table.

While FM Wang Yi does not explicitly mention NK by name, the underlying subtle message was clear to all what it mean by "lips and teeth" with the peninsula.

It is a message to NK that "The China-NK alliance is (still) on the table. The support is there." A few weeks later in April, 2017, the NK started their first ballistic missile test after Trump's inauguration.

taxiya said:
He is a SK official, that is all I care.

I believe more in what the Chinese Foreign Ministry Speaker says than a SK official.
What ever Xi really said behind the door to SK president is only known by Xi himself and SK president. I only believe when Chinese Foreign Ministry confirms it.
I suppose you are Chinese citizen, who would you believe (or willing to believe)? Chinese official or SK official? You can call both side lying if they contradict each other. But I would not assume one side is saying the truth until the other side confirms it. It is a matter of personal choice.

Um, SK official? I don't think this is a "person". If anything, he is Moon Jae-in himself, since Cheong Wae Dae = SK President's Office

The Blue House (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
: 청와대;
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
: 靑瓦臺; Cheong Wa Dae; literally "pavilion of blue tiles")
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
is the executive office and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
of the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
head of state

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Why would you doubt the veracity of SK President's Executive Office which has published original transcripts of the Xi Jinping and Moon Jae-in conversation and the MoF has not come out to reject the authenticitiy of the original transcripts?

It seems to me you already have a conclusion in mind (relationship isn't blood) but I proved to you FM Wang referred to "lips and teeth" and from a highly credible source (SK President's Office) that Xi Jinping says "blood alliance" has not fundamentally changed despite nuke and ICBM tests.

It seems like you already made up your mind and cherry picking the sources that fits or doesn't fit your agenda.

China MoF and Xinhua didn't publish the transcripts because China doesn't want to be seen as enabling NK behavior, but FM Wang Yi's "lips and teeth" statement in Mar, 2017, followed by NK missile provocations starting April 2017, few weeks after Wang Yi's statement, show that the alliance is still on the table.

taxiya · Oct 16, 2017

Phead128 said:
Word choice in Chinese diplomacy is incredibly symbolic and carries immense weight. China has to choose it's words very selectively, but the usage of "lips and teeth" means the alliance is still on the table.

While FM Wang Yi does not explicitly mention NK by name, the underlying subtle message was clear to all what it mean by "lips and teeth" with the peninsula.

You insist to substitute "peninsular" with "NK" and assert that is the unspoken true meaning of Wang Yi, aren't you? Isn't that "cherry pick" or "believe in what you want to believe"?

I am not going to argue to this end any more because I have repeated many times.

It is a message to NK that "The China-NK alliance is (still) on the table. The support is there." A few weeks later in April, 2017, the NK started their first ballistic missile test after Trump's inauguration.

By making this statement, are you suggesting that China is secretly encouraging NK's missile program?

That is a huge assertion and the first post in this thread of such opinion. Not arguing you are wrong, but you are surely holding a very rare opinion.

Um, SK official? I don't think this is a "person". If anything, he is Moon Jae-in himself, since Cheong Wae Dae = SK President's Office

Why would you doubt the veracity of SK President's Executive Office which has published original transcripts of the Xi Jinping and Moon Jae-in conversation and the MoF has not come out to reject the authenticitiy of the original transcripts?

It seems to me you already have a conclusion in mind (relationship isn't blood) but I proved to you FM Wang referred to "lips and teeth" and from a highly credible source (SK President's Office) that Xi Jinping says "blood alliance" has not fundamentally changed despite nuke and ICBM tests.

It seems like you already made up your mind and cherry picking the sources that fits or doesn't fit your agenda.

Yes I doubt anything unless the other side confirms because in diplomacy, no-comment means no comment, nothing more, nothing less.

China has not blamed US for being responsible to the current crisis in the past decades since Clinton time. China only called "someone stab on the back of China, someone fan the flame while others try to cool it" recently (2017). Does China's silence during the past decades mean that China accepted without rejection of US's position that NK is the sole trouble maker? Or "silence means rejection"?

China MoF and Xinhua didn't publish the transcripts because China doesn't want to be seen as enabling NK behavior, but FM Wang Yi's "lips and teeth" statement in Mar, 2017, followed by NK missile provocations starting April 2017, few weeks after Wang Yi's statement, show that the alliance is still on the table.

That is one plausible explanation. But not necessarily the only one, nor necessarily the right one. You apparently take the one you preferred rather than accept "none of us know for sure".

I must also remind you that "the blood bound" is a rhetoric, what it means and whether it is still there is defined by the acts. The term has been used up till the time of KJN's accession. It has not been mentioned ever since, by anyone. If hypothetically KJN renounced his nuclear program and welcomed China's proposal tomorrow, it won't surprise anybody that People's Daily will use "the blood bound" in its article tomorrow. The key point of mine was never about the wording, it is the essence of the relationship (whatever you want to call it).

The key point is that unlike you have suggested

China does not support NK's nuclear program.
China-NK relationship is very pragmatic (from China's side) based on national interest which can not be simplified by rhetoric (such as blood).
China will certainly enter a fight to save NK if anyone cross 38 from south, call it "out of blood bound" if you like, I have no objection to that wording, I am only interested in the line.
China may very likely let KJN to dry if he take initiative to attack SK, just like his grandfather did in the 1950s. Remind you, China waited for NK's forces to be annialated before sending PVA, I won't speculate why China waited that long, but I would NOT save someone until he learned the lesson in the hard way if he refused my advice at the beginning.

Our critical difference is that you take for granted of China saving KJN no matter what by your emphasizing of "blood bound", am I right? While I don't write that "blank cheque".

I must stop here as I have sensed that we are going around a cycling argument.

AndrewS · Oct 16, 2017

Newsweek Article.

The withdrawal of US troops from SK is also in China's interest.

It is also in South Korea's long term interest, because it will face a less hostile China relationship and because SK won't be dragged into a potential land war due to a separate US-China conflict elsewhere.

WAR WITH NORTH KOREA: WILL TRUMP MAKE A DEAL WITH CHINA TO SAVE THE WORLD?

But there was more to Kissinger’s visit. Given the growing threat of North Korea’s nukes, the Trump team is considering a grand bargain with China—one almost as audacious as Nixon’s: If Beijing will use all its diplomatic and economic leverage to pressure Kim Jong Un’s regime to give up its nuclear program—and if Kim followed through in a way that could be verified—the United States would agree to recognize the North diplomatically, supply it with economic aid and, eventually, draw down its 29,000 troops in South Korea. That has long been one of Pyongyang’s core demands of the U.S.

Read more

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

plawolf · Oct 16, 2017

With Trump screwing around with the Iran nuclear deal despite all parties agreeing Iran is abiding by the terms of the deal, just how does he expect anyone to take any deal he agrees seriously?

China would be keen to explore any possible diplomatic solution to the standoff, but it would be hard to think of what Trump could do to convince them that he would honour any deal reached?

mr.bean · Oct 16, 2017

AndrewS said:
Newsweek Article.

The withdrawal of US troops from SK is also in China's interest.

It is also in South Korea's long term interest, because it will face a less hostile China relationship and because SK won't be dragged into a potential land war due to a separate US-China conflict elsewhere.

that doesn't seem like a deal at all(there's nothing in it for China). China would be an idiot to take up a deal like that and Trump doesn't look like a guy who will stick to deals anyway.

China's strategy in Korean peninsula

taxiya

Brigadier

Phead128

Captain

Lezt

Junior Member

Jura The idiot

General

taxiya

Brigadier

Phead128

Captain

taxiya

Brigadier

AndrewS

Brigadier

plawolf

Lieutenant General

mr.bean

Junior Member