China's strategy in Korean peninsula

Monday at 12:31 PM

Jura said:

Yesterday at 7:49 PM

more:
Trump says envoy 'wasting his time' talking to North Korea

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and now just the link, as the development isn't directly related to China at this point:
Tensions escalate after Tillerson calls Trump 'moron'
Updated 3:03 PM ET, Wed October 4, 2017

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sanblvd said:

I think when it come down to it, that would be the best outcome for Kim and his top officers, but from what I read so far ever since Kim took power he as been burning his bridges with China.

Unlike his father or his grandfather he shows no respect for China whatsoever and sometimes even deliberately trying to poke China, Kim never listen to China on not developing nukes or testing nukes, and during several top meetings like Xi's meeting with Trump or Xi's BRIC summit he tested rockets on purpose to embarrass China. He also assassinated or purged many officials who were pro-China in his government.

So I don't know how willing is he going to seek exile in China when crap hit the fan.

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I think KJU is more likely to exile in a comfortable life in Beijing than be trialed as a warcriminal by US-SK military tribunal court for warcrimes against NK public.

Given this choice, it is a no brainer for Kim Jong Un to seek a comfortable exile (like his brother Kim Jong Nam) in Beijing or Macau.. He clearly saw how Saddam was publically hanged for warcrimes and how Qaddafi was sodomized and killed by rebel forces sponsored by US.

Furthermore, the rift between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un is exaggerated since it will never impact the fundamental relationship (ie. blood alliance) between China and North Korea. China still views North Korea as an indispensable strategic asset regardless of the coincidental testing of missiles during some meeting that Xi Jinping heads. Western analyst are overanalyzing small incidents and trying to make implications on the larger relationship, which has fundamentally not change despite nuke and ICBM tests.

AndrewS said:

I doubt the Kims are thinking about defending their country.

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Explain to me how developing nukes is not defending their country? Do you think NK spend $2-3 billion dollars on nuke development just as a zoo exhibit to curry attention and news coverage for fun?

AndrewS said:

If they had been, they would have done SOMETHING ELSE over those 3 generations instead of bankrupting themselves with the military.

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Also, the entire North Korean nuclear program costs $2-3 billion dollars, which spread over 25 years, is less than $100 million per year spent on it's nuclear program. "Bankrupting" themselves with nukes is further from the truth - If NK spends $10 billion annually on military, spending $100 million per year on nuke development (less than 1%) is hardly bankrupting NK budget. This alone shows you have a pre-existing bias against North Korea.

AndrewS said:

If they had started reforming after the end of the USSR (like Vietnam did), then they would actually be secure instead of having to be paranoid today.

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Also, explain to me how economic reforms will guarantee the safety of their country? If I can recall, states such as Iraq, Libya, Syria which has economically liberalized were still taken down by US and NATO allies. It seems to me the ultimate self-defense is not economic reform, but nuclear weapons.

Phead128 said:

I think KJU is more likely to exile in a comfortable life in Beijing than be trialed as a warcriminal by US-SK military tribunal court for warcrimes against NK public.

Given this choice, it is a no brainer for Kim Jong Un to seek a comfortable exile (like his brother Kim Jong Nam) in Beijing or Macau.. He clearly saw how Saddam was publically hanged for warcrimes and how Qaddafi was sodomized and killed by rebel forces sponsored by US.

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That is what KJU may want, but not necessarily what China want or willing.

China will not allow a tribunal organized by US-SK, that I can guarantee you. If there is a persecution of KJU, it would be a NK organized one by the moderate NK communist factions, in the same manner as China trialed the gang of four.

China is clearly pissed off by KJU to the extent to want him to disappear physically, but China is surely trying to make sure that happens ONLY in the hand of the NK (if must happen), not anyone from south of the 38 line.

So the assumption that KJU is running away from the approaching US-SK is false. In the mean time, China will not let KJU to escape the NK persecution. Either way, China won't provide exile.

Furthermore, the rift between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un is exaggerated since it will never impact the fundamental relationship (ie. blood alliance) between China and North Korea. China still views North Korea as an indispensable strategic asset regardless of the coincidental testing of missiles during some meeting that Xi Jinping heads. Western analyst are overanalyzing small incidents and trying to make implications on the larger relationship, which has fundamentally not change despite nuke and ICBM tests.

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I think we should separate KJU the person from NK the country. All the fundamental relationship between China and NK is NOT personal with Kim family.

Yes the west is trying to do everything to alienate Chinese public opinions towards both NK the country and KJU the person, for the west the two are the same. But for a Chinese, the support to NK the country does not and should not equate to KJU the person. He is not cooperative to China at all. His father once promised China "eventual denuclearization". During an early meeting between KJU's delegate and China in Beijing, the delegate reassured that. However, later he has stated that "denuclearization is out of the question". I clearly remember the reassurance was broadcasted in "Xin Wen Lian Bo" which represents the most official stance of China, that is nothing that the west did, it is truly China's wish. KJU just renegaded from it. I don't see how could Xi tolerate Kim.

I think, from a Chinese perspective, we should not be swung by Western propaganda, but neither shall we allow KJU to hijack us for his own personal ambition. Chinese interest is different from both US-SK and NK.

To add a reference to the recent "providing exile" story, let me say two names and everyone can study and compare them with KJU and see what kind of person is regarded by China as true friend who deserved Chinese protection and being offered exile.

One is the late Cambodian King Norodom Sihanouk and the other is former Vietnamese leader Hoàng Văn Hoan (黄文欢). Both have been firm friends of China even under personal threats, for that China has provided protections and have them lived in China for decades. On the contrary, what good did KJU do to be qualified as a worthy friend for protection and deserve a safe exile? Nothing.

BTW, let's stay on NK and not to drift away.

Phead128 said:

Also, explain to me how economic reforms will guarantee the safety of their country? If I can recall, states such as Iraq, Libya, Syria which has economically liberalized were still taken down by US and NATO allies. It seems to me the ultimate self-defense is not economic reform, but nuclear weapons.

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That is both right and wrong.

It is right that economic reform along (like Vietnam did) can not guarantee safety.

But it is equally wrong to say nuclear weapon is the ultimate (=only?) guarantee of safety, again Vietnam (as you mentioned as the model of reform) and SK (as the direct concerning party) are safe enough without nuclear weapon.

What everybody (at least Chinese and Russian sides) expect from KJU is the same as Vietnam and SK and many others did, safety without nukes. And willingly to provide (Russia) or is being provided (China, the treaty) guarantees to NK's safety. It is only that KJU does not want that.

taxiya said:

China is clearly pissed off by KJU to the extent to want him to disappear physically, but China is surely trying to make sure that happens ONLY in the hand of the NK (if must happen), not anyone from south of the 38 line..

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Exactly. I agree. We both agree that as far as China is concerned, the Kim Dynasty hereditary system of governance in North Korea is replaceable. However, if forced to choose between a pro-US/SK faction ruling NK or pro-China faction ruling NK, China will easily choose the latter, regardless of whether to give Kim dynasty exile or not. To China, if Kim dynasty loses the mandate, it has lost it's purpose and must be replaced by someone INSIDE NK, not anyone from south of DMZ.

taxiya said:

So the assumption that KJU is running away from the approaching US-SK is false. In the mean time, China will not let KJU to escape the NK persecution. Either way, China won't provide exile.

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You are absolutely correct. Offering exile and pardon doesn't serve much purpose because if it gets to that point, then KJU would be on the brink of losing most if not all of his power. China would probably rather directly negotiate with the most powerful (pro-China) faction directly, bypass Kim dynasty, and let the Kim dynasty be scapegoat by NK rivals, and pre-empt US-SK unification by sponsoring a pro-Beijing puppet state or pro-China leader in rival faction. KJU would lose it's value at the point which he needs exile, and it's better to let he be punished by NK rivals than offer pardon/exile. But to your bigger point, he sure as hell won't run to US-SK for protection.

taxiya said:

I think we should separate KJU the person from NK the country. All the fundamental relationship between China and NK is NOT personal with Kim family.......
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Yes the west is trying to do everything to alienate Chinese public opinions towards both NK the country and KJU the person, for the west the two are the same. But for a Chinese, the support to NK the country does not and should not equate to KJU the person.......
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.
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I think, from a Chinese perspective, we should not be swung by Western propaganda, but neither shall we allow KJU to hijack us for his own personal ambition. Chinese interest is different from both US-SK and NK.

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Precisely, I agree 100%.

taxiya said:

Yes the west is trying to do everything to alienate Chinese public opinions towards both NK the country and KJU the person, for the west the two are the same. But for a Chinese, the support to NK the country does not and should not equate to KJU the person. He is not cooperative to China at all. His father once promised China "eventual denuclearization". During an early meeting between KJU's delegate and China in Beijing, the delegate reassured that. However, later he has stated that "denuclearization is out of the question". I clearly remember the reassurance was broadcasted in "Xin Wen Lian Bo" which represents the most official stance of China, that is nothing that the west did, it is truly China's wish. KJU just renegaded from it. I don't see how could Xi tolerate Kim.

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I wouldn't place so much emphasis on China's insistence on non-proliferation and denuclearization. It is the official policy of PRC for the "denuclearization of Korean peninsula" and "denuclearization of the world" eventually... but as Deng Xiaoping says "[China does] not advocate nuclear proliferation at all, but we even more strongly oppose nuclear monopolies."


So to summarize everything in a succint statement:

China's official stance on denuclearization allows it strategic flexibility - when NK state is unified + strong, it's nukes are aimed at US+allies, China can pay token lipservice to denuclearization because it strategically pins an adversary while China focuses elsewhere. On the Contrary..... When NK state is weak or collapsed, it's nukes are in uncertain hands during collapse (rogue general, sold to terrorists, lost in chaos), China can actually use it's official policy of denuclearization in real world by intervening to secure "rogue nukes", (but the True main focus is to set up refugee camps inside NK and provide humanitarian aid, pre-empt US-SK land invasion, and prop up a pro-China faction among NK elites) while the official reason for intervention is "denuclearization and securing rogue nukes". It's brilliant, even if US/SK sees through China's plan, China isn't being a liar or inconsistent with previous official policy proclaimations.

What do you think?

taxiya said:

But it is equally wrong to say nuclear weapon is the ultimate (=only?) guarantee of safety, again Vietnam (as you mentioned as the model of reform) and SK (as the direct concerning party) are safe enough without nuclear weapon.

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I agree, nukes are not the ONLY guarantee of safety. Like South Korea, having (atleast on Korean peninsula) a monopoly on high-tech (non-nuclear) weapons is another form of safety. Having defense treaties are another form of safety... but there are examples where defense treaties kinda fail.

taxiya said:

What everybody (at least Chinese and Russian sides) expect from KJU is the same as Vietnam and SK and many others did, safety without nukes. And willingly to provide (Russia) or is being provided (China, the treaty) guarantees to NK's safety. It is only that KJU does not want that.

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Vietnam was really "safe" though even though it had defense treaties with US and USSR.

South Vietnam (despite US mutual defense treaty guarantees) was conquered by North Vietnam in 1975, so it was not "safe".
Unified Vietnam (despite USSR mutual defense treaty guarantees) was invaded by China in 1979, so it was not "safe".

South Korea is different from Vietnam, which neither had high-tech weapons, nor nuclear weapons, nor a strong economy to begin with.

Really, aside from the Sino-Soviet border skirmishes and the Pakistani-Indian border skirmishes, there has never really been any instance where a nuclear power has been invaded, much less conquered by a foreign power.

The purpose of China is a peacefully reunited Korea. That necessitates that South Korea becomes an independent country, an end to US suzerainty and US garrison. From there China can help negotiations on reunification and even before that is achieved rail, road and pipeline connections can be built between South Korea and both China and Russia.
Propaganda wrt KJU is a distraction by Western media.

Phead128 said:

I think KJU is more likely to exile in a comfortable life in Beijing than be trialed as a warcriminal by US-SK military tribunal court for warcrimes against NK public.

Given this choice, it is a no brainer for Kim Jong Un to seek a comfortable exile (like his brother Kim Jong Nam) in Beijing or Macau.. He clearly saw how Saddam was publically hanged for warcrimes and how Qaddafi was sodomized and killed by rebel forces sponsored by US.

Furthermore, the rift between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un is exaggerated since it will never impact the fundamental relationship (ie. blood alliance) between China and North Korea. China still views North Korea as an indispensable strategic asset regardless of the coincidental testing of missiles during some meeting that Xi Jinping heads. Western analyst are overanalyzing small incidents and trying to make implications on the larger relationship, which has fundamentally not change despite nuke and ICBM tests.

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I would add the following.

I think "blood alliance" is too strong a description of the relationship between North Korea and China.

North Korea is only a strategic asset because it is a buffer that keeps US troops away from the Chinese border.

If US troops are removed from the Korean peninsula, China has very little reason to support North Korea, and many reasons to get SK and NK to work together.