solarz
Brigadier
So they're still doing evacuations? Wonder how long the Taliban is going to let them keep doing this.
China's strategy in Afghanistan.
- Thread starter ohan_qwe
- Start date
So they're still doing evacuations? Wonder how long the Taliban is going to let them keep doing this.
Equation
Lieutenant General
Actually for the Taliban they would want as much of the "traitors" and future "rebels" and trouble makers to leave the country so that can rule easier in peace.
Formally, the US troop presence is supposed to terminate on August 31, so the Taliban can maintain face (or as our American friends would put it, "credibility") and let them keep up this farce until then.
solarz
Brigadier
Seems pretty stupid of those people to climb on the planes on the first day then.
My understanding of the situation at the time those images of people clinging onto departing C-17s was
i) The US had just taken control of Kabul International Airport (KBL) and replaced the civilian ATC with military ATC.
ii) It was also reported that in the first 24hrs, all civil air traffic was stopped by US Mil ATC to ensure the safety and priority of their own evacuation flights.
iii) The Taliban at this time was already closing in on the outskirts of Kabul city but haven't made it to KBL yet.
Amidst all this, the people who are in fear of the Taliban (especially given the bad rep of 20 years ago) will surmise that
a) The Taliban will be at the airport within hours
b) With civil flights stopped, the US Mil flights were their only bet.
c) Better to die trying
I can imagine the fear in the Afghanis on the ground if that was the only intel they had around KBL in the initial 24hrs.
It is only much later, past the 36~48 hr mark, that it slowly emerged that
1) The US was starting to allow some civil flights in/out
2) The US (had?) reached an agreement with the Taliban not to interfere with the evacuation and as such, it wasn't a matter of hours left to evac but potentially weeks to do so. This (along with the increased troops and better perimeter) probably explains the calmer atmosphere around the airport tarmac now.
Right now, reports are also emerging that the Taliban are providing escort for foreign passport holders trying to get to KBL. Supposedly the Taliban have ring fenced KBL and are only letting foreign passport holders through while the US Army have another perimeter within this further triaging who gets into the airport.
The Afghanis that are currently inside the perimeter then are probably holdovers from the initial rush at the airport before the US could secure it.
They could possibly comprise of legitimate airline ticketed passengers stranded because the US Military cancelled their civil flight. Possibly SIVs are there too but colour me cynical if I surmise they are there by their own efforts rather than by design of the US Military.
Taliban is just 30k fighters controlling a country of 30 million. They occupied territory without fighting. If people turn against them they could fall rapidly too. Saleh already controls 10k fighters concentrated in a single district and is taking back cities.
It is going to be difficult to trust the Taliban. They're
Just if you think that they're simply anti-murican: They are also
China shouldn't fall into the trap of putting boots on the ground but it may be worth seeing what sort of favorable policies VP Saleh could introduce if he were to retain power, and think about how to deal with him.
If you really do think they are going to kill Chinese (and may have already done so) then boots on the ground would give good practice for Chinese forces.
No nation building, just raids the way Israel does to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
Keep everyone on their toes and increase readiness and experience.
That's if they are going to or have already started killing Chinese. If they just want trade and investment no reason to fight or destroy anyone, US has already done enough of that.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
What a mess! You’d think the US would be better at fleeing from collapsing puppet regimes by now given how much practice they have had at it.
It may be fun to revel in an opponent’s discomfiture, but the reveling exaggerates the discomfiture. Deep in the mind of any thoughtful strategist it has been clear since 2002 that:
1. America has some appetite to bleed a little every year for many years in Afghanistan, but not at any time except the first 3 month did America have the appetite to bleed quite a bit in one shot to physically occupy the country. It gave that up in pursuit of the mirage of bigger game in Iraq.
2. What america has been claiming to be doing in Afghanistan ever since had almost zero chance of success
3. What America is doing is a long shot for enhancing America’s system of alliance and strategic position in East and Central Asia in the long run, but is immediate laborsome millstone around its neck.
There is no doubt whatsoever that America’s fundamental strategic position in East and Central Asia is strengthened, not weakened, by abandonment of Afghanistan. The disgraceful mode of exit creates a unnecessary blip of bad rep, but the scope of the bad rep won’t offset the fundamentally long term positive effect that abandoning Afghanistan would have on America’s position in East Asia and Central Asia.
1. America has some appetite to bleed a little every year for many years in Afghanistan, but not at any time except the first 3 month did America have the appetite to bleed quite a bit in one shot to physically occupy the country. It gave that up in pursuit of the mirage of bigger game in Iraq.
2. What america has been claiming to be doing in Afghanistan ever since had almost zero chance of success
3. What America is doing is a long shot for enhancing America’s system of alliance and strategic position in East and Central Asia in the long run, but is immediate laborsome millstone around its neck.
There is no doubt whatsoever that America’s fundamental strategic position in East and Central Asia is strengthened, not weakened, by abandonment of Afghanistan. The disgraceful mode of exit creates a unnecessary blip of bad rep, but the scope of the bad rep won’t offset the fundamentally long term positive effect that abandoning Afghanistan would have on America’s position in East Asia and Central Asia.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Well what happened in Afghanistan will have strong repercussion all around the world. Each of those countries will have to draw their own conclusion . But one thing is certain America does not have the stamina and will for long drawn conflict. They show it in Vietnam and now in Afghanistan. The lesson learned should be not to meddle in other people dispute. It is easy to start a war but once in it it is difficult to extricate yourself. No one should be world police ! Taiwan is for the Chinese to sort out their own dispute. If I were Taiwan I will be nervous now