China's Space Program Thread II

[CR400BF5033]

At Oct 23 22:30 Beijing Time, the TongxinJishuShiyan-20(通信技术试验卫星二十号, Communication Technology Experiment Satellite-20, TJS-20) has been successfully launched by a Long March 5 rocket from WSLC.

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My guess: another strategic early warning satellite for the Indian Ocean, considering the TJS series' tradition and the obvious meaning of the mission patch

 

[victoon]

At Oct 23 22:30 Beijing Time, the TongxinJishuShiyan-20(通信技术试验卫星二十号, Communication Technology Experiment Satellite-20, TJS-20) has been successfully launched by a Long March 5 rocket from WSLC.
View attachment 163107

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My guess: another strategic early warning satellite for the Indian Ocean, considering the TJS series' tradition and the obvious meaning of the mission patch

So...a space station module sized satellite...

 

[Daniel707]

At Oct 23 22:30 Beijing Time, the TongxinJishuShiyan-20(通信技术试验卫星二十号, Communication Technology Experiment Satellite-20, TJS-20) has been successfully launched by a Long March 5 rocket from WSLC.
View attachment 163107

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My guess: another strategic early warning satellite for the Indian Ocean, considering the TJS series' tradition and the obvious meaning of the mission patch

Launch successful, sending TJSW-20 Large Satellite to GTO by Long March Y9

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1981384397694677501

 

[huemens]

So...a space station module sized satellite...

No, they are using LM-5 because of the higher orbit. It's a GTO mission. For GTO missions heavier than 7t they have to use LM-5. If the satellite is using the DFH-5 bus, it's probably around 8t. LM-5 max to GTO is 14t. Space station modules are 23 tonnes. That kind of capacity is only for LEO.

 

[CR400BF5033]

No, they are using LM-5 because of the higher orbit. It's a GTO mission. For GTO missions heavier than 7t they have to use LM-5. It's probably using the DFH-5 bus, so should be around 8t. LM-5 max to GTO is 14t. Space station modules are 23 tonnes. That kind of capacity is only for LEO.

Considering the long payload fairing(not the usual 12m fairing of LM-5, but a ~20m fairing, which has been used in another confidential mission in 2023), the satellite will not be something small. And we don't know if it's using the DFH-5 bus(although this is the most possible possibility), maybe a bigger, havier customized version for some super confidential super advanced military purpose. Maybe we'll never know.

 

[iewgnem]

No, they are using LM-5 because of the higher orbit. It's a GTO mission. For GTO missions heavier than 7t they have to use LM-5. If the satellite is using the DFH-5 bus, it's probably around 8t. LM-5 max to GTO is 14t. Space station modules are 23 tonnes. That kind of capacity is only for LEO.

It actually is a space station module sized satellite as it uses the same 20m fairing as LM-5B space station missions.
Most likely it's an SIGINT / ELINT / GEO-SAR satellite with an absolutely massive aperture possibly 50m or bigger.

 

[zayid]

dual pupil bird
A sacred bird that can destroy animals on the ground when it flies

 

[tiancai8888]

I wonder what those pair of fins are for

Chinese sources say they want to increase the AoA when stage reentry. The fins could help to slow down the stage & save fuel for landing burn (the stage may hover on the LZ for a few seconds before the touch down). At the result, higher % of a successful landing. But it's dead weight after all, It may be cancelled for the future ZQ-3s once they figured out a more robust landing algorithm.

 

[TheRathalos]

Shenzhou 21 roll out.

Whats their entire timeline of missions up until manned landing on lunar surface? How many test launches of LM-10?

There are no detailled timelines, but it can be roughly be considered as following:

2025: Static fire and hopper test of the Long March 10A, Ground and Max Q abort tests of the Mengzhou lunar capsule, ground test of the lanyue lunar lander (Some have been accomplished)
2026: Completion of the CZ-10 launch pad, uncrewed maiden launch of the CZ-10A (single core) with Mengzhou, First recovery attempt of the CZ-10A
2026-2027: First Crewed launch of the CZ-10A with Mengzhou (at minimum on the 2nd CZ-10A/Mengzhou)
2027?: First launch of the tricore CZ-10 Y1 for a test (the nature of the test is uncertain)
2027-2028: Launch of the lunar equatorial remote sensing satellite to pick landing sites
2028: Launch of a crewed CZ-10 (Y2 or Y3) with Mengzhou on a lunar orbit mission, launch of uncrewed CZ-10 (Y2/Y3) for another uncertain test
2029: Launch of two CZ-10 Y4/Y5 carrying Mengzhou and Lanyue for the crewed lunar landing

The largest uncertainty comes from the date and roles of CZ-10 Y1/Y2/Y3, at least one of them will carry a crewed mengzhou in an Apollo-8-type mission in 2028, a few years ago it was announced tricore CZ-10 will launch in 2027, but that information has not be repeated in recent years. There are no informations on what the order and payloads of these launches could be, except that one will be a lunar orbit mission (there is a slim chance the crewed lunar orbit mission could be on the first CZ-10, but IMO unlikely).
However the fact that they need 5 CZ-10 (tricore) total for the preparation and execution of the crewed lunar landing was announced 6 months ago.

 

[GulfLander]

Elon Musk commenting on Landspace rocket

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1981399997699805613