Actually what I wrote was the actual full matter being debated. To quote the post that you replied to:
I assume that most people would interpret "future success in catching up to spacex/starlink" is in context of whatever timespan exists to close the gap in a way that does not cause an irreversible or difficult to reverse long term trend -- keep in mind SpaceX itself and Starlink et al is a moving target, they are not staying still.
That might have been the scope before but I added that it's need-based. China's not like the Soviets; we don't build things just to say we have the most or largest. Do we have the need, or would be have much benefit from massively increase space launch capability?
It's reasonable to say that China has a chance to close the gap and/or catch up with SpaceX in capability.
Of course we do. There's not a technology out there where China doesn't have a very very good chance. Everybody has some kind of chance to do anything; this is a pointless understatement.
It is not reasonable to say that China is guaranteed to do catch up. If you seriously think China is guaranteed in doing so,\
I think it is very reasonable. Qualitatively, the most difficult technologies are lithography and jet engines. China is the fastest-moving in both areas, has become a world leader and in lithography, the most self-sufficient country while other advanced countries must piece their work together to achive a full production line. Rocket technology, to the best of my knowledge, are not only less complex, but also more affected by quantitative measure, which moves into manufacturing, which is China's specialty. If a rocket needs more payload, it is possible to improve it by adding more thrusters (to a limit imposed by structural load-bearing capability of the body). If a larger rocket could launch 10 satellites, a smaller more limited rocket can launch 5 but we can use 3 of them to launch 15, beating the larger rocket and our costs could still be lower. From what I know, China has done much more difficult things; if we are focused, we will surely get this done.
then that is a level of confidence that is more consistent with Jai Hind style chest beating.
How so?
India: Lost 6-7 aircraft without shooting down anything from Pakistan, loses Tejas at airshow.
Jai Hind: No, we didn't. The Rafale flew back to base without its tail. Actually, we shot down 15 JF-17 without taking any loss. Tejas crash is nothing; China crashed over 300 J-15. US sabotaged Tejas engine because it's scared of India.
China: Fastest growing super economy, largest PPP in the world, beat the US in 2 trade wars, currently beating the US in a tech war.
Me: If China can do what we're doing in lithography and jet engines, then with national priority, I'm sure we can catch up to and surpass SpaceX too.
Sounds like the same thing to you?
Edit: and if the argument is "China is guaranteed to succeed to catch up if they really tried, but right now they just aren't trying because it's not a priority" then that's an even worse thing to say.
How much of a priority do you think this is for China to build higher payload rockets? From what I know, it's not nearly a national priority as jet engines or semiconductors. Do you believe that China's development is significantly hindered by its rocket tech limits and that there is great need to quickly reach and exceed SpaceX's abilities? Would it significantly help us?
