From Marco Rubio's research on CN:
View attachment 139501
Is this accurate? When will the CN reusable rockets be commercially available/used?
There are like over 10 different reusable rockets in the medium to heavy category that are likely going to have their first flights in the next year or two, of those 3 are from state developers, and the rest commercial. And of those 2-3 of those types have triple core variants that put them in the super-heavy category.
The ones from state developers include:
- CZ-12A
- CZ-12B
- CZ-10/A
(CZ-9 isn't included on this list because it won't be emerging in the next 1-2 years obviously)
From commercial developers include:
- Kinetica 2
- Nebula 1
- Nebula 2
- Pallas 1/B
- Hyperbola 3/B
- ZQ-3
- Gravity 2/3
- TL-3/H
I'd say most of them have a good chance of meeting their goals of launch in the next year or two, particularly those from the state developers and Landspace, Space Pioneer, Deep Blue Aerospace, and Orienspace
In terms of comparing payload to orbit, this discussion has been had before and I don't want this thread to be derailed too much like before. However, as previously discussed, SpaceX deserves credit for their achievements, however the majority of their missions are Starlink satellites, which while they certainly possess significant utility as an orbital internet system and they assist in squatting on orbital placements, they are individually not particularly medium end or even high end in terms of sophistication for imaging, SAR, or ELINT or communications nodes.
Matching high end payloads to orbital launch capability is something that has yet to be achieved, which if done would more genuinely augment a nation's orbital/space power.
The thing to watch in the future (including as the PRC ramps up their own reusable first stage rockets) will be what proportion of rockets carry higher end payloads versus G60/Guowang, Starlink style payloads.