China's Space Program Thread II
- Thread starter Blitzo
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That's all well and good, but it still doesn't explain delusional statements like "we're expecting to launch 50 LM-8 a year". It tells of someone that isn't quite in touch with reality and the general trends going on within their own industry.
first read the statement. what Chief designer said,
''Song Zhengyu, the chief designer of the Long March 8 launch vehicle said in an interview that if two launchpads are made available in the future with the right configuration (optimizations?), then we can launch one Long March 8 every seven days, or 50 times per year. This is the goal we're working toward, and we're preparing to building a pulse production line that can make 50 Long March 8 vehicles annually''.
if everything goes well , means two launch pads available. and increase production capacity with pulsating assembly line .. and he also said this ''we are working on this'' .. so you mean, they cannot do this ?? its very much possible if CNSA decide to this..
with due respect, who are you ?? you know better than him ??
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Again, considering that the current launch and production rate has been 1 rocket per year, how many more years will it take? By the time that they can make and launch 50 rockets a year, it's very very very likely that China will have it's Falcon 9 clone in service. It's not like we're seeing a dozen LM-8 launch a year today, it's clearly gonna take them many more years to scale up production. It's an statement that's perfectly fine on it's own, but the rocket industry of today isn't the same as it was 10 years ago. Reusable rockets can make those 50 launches with 5 boosters. It's an investment into obsolete technology.
You really have to read the situation here. Imagine if someone high up in the government said "Coal is the future, we're gonna invest billions to build hundreds of coal plants a year", coal plants work fine and would be a good policy... 30 years ago. It's clear that the energy sector is moving away from coal today for many reasons. Or imagine someone going "EVs are not ready yet, we're gonna invest billions to build more ICE cars", again fine policy 10 years ago. Not so much today. Imagine if a semiconductor company goes "we're going to go all in American equipment and technology", makes sense 10 years ago, not today when it's clear that America is going to do it's best to sanction anything Chinese. Imagine someone trying to build a new heavy tank today when FPV drones are a thing. Techologny can get obsolete really fast.
Oh please Sunnymaxi, I've seen your post in the semiconductor thread. You get mad whenever a semiconductor company goes with western supplier instead of a dosmetic one when there's an dosmetic alternative available. Because like any normal human, you can see into the future and have common sense and know that it's a shortsighted decison that's gonna bite them in the ass once America gets sanction happy and that America is gonna get more sanction happy over time and that it will overall harm the semiconductor industry by spending money on a competitor.
Again, this is just shortsighted, they can't build and launch 50 CZ-8s a year today, they can maybe do it 5 years from now. By which time reusable rockets will be dominating the launch market. The only way this makes sense is it you're assuming that China's efforts at reusable rocket completely fail and are massively delayed, even though there's a dozen designs that will likely make their maiden launch in 1-3 years. So you're left with a massive factory that can make 50 rockets a year that's basically useless. How many billions are used to construct a factory that can make 50 rockets a year? That's around half of China's entire launch rate last year. That's one big factory that's gonna be obsolete real soon.
It's doubly stuipd if they eat up launchs in favor of resauble rockets. Like this might actually hurt the entire sector as a whole. Launchpads are limited and there's gonna be a dozen reusable rockets all fighting for launchpads in a few years. The thing about reusable rockets is that they're gonna take a few launches to learn to land and be reused, this means that they will need to be launched often. Can you imagine how long it might have taken SpaceX to make the F9 if they could only launch 1 time a year? The CZ-8 might be stealing launches from the smaller companies, launches that they will need to refine and perfect their rocket's landing and reusability, which the CZ-8 doesn't need to do because it's already a mature rocket using tired and test technology.
Someone with common sense. Which makes it more pathetic that I can see the writing on the wall and he can't.
What's next, you're gonna quote actual rocket scientist from 10 years ago that were laughing at the Falcon 9 and saying that it would never land and be reusable? Guess they knew better in the end huh. By this logic, the SLS is a perfectly fine and good program and not a massive waste of money, I heard it from the head of NASA and various SLS subcontractors, they are of course not bias at all, so this is 100% true.
Billion dollar companies and CEOs never make mistakes, they are always right. Boeing told me that their planes are safer then the Airbus, they must be right, I know nothing, I'm just a random dude, I don't have a PHD and thus cannot think for myself, I can't use common sense, I have follow what the obviously biased people are telling me and their corporate PR bullshit. The Chief designer of the CZ-8 of course isn't bias in anyway and not trying to fluff up his personal project to sound good.
Just because someone is educated and in charge doesn't mean shit. Common sense is still lacking for everyone regardless of money or education level. Just look at Facebook's attempts at the Metaverse. You would think that the company that literally made social media would know that they were doing, but literally everyone called the Metaverse a failure since literally day 1 and they were right, despite not being a billion dollar company with access to hundreds of people with PHDs.
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you have problem with unofficial news ... fine
you also have issues with official news.
he is a Chief designer not a roadside kid.. he clearly said this, we are working on this .. it means they are increasing the production capacity with pulsating assembly line.. its obvious he knows better than all of us.. if it wasn't feasible, he would never said this..
please start behaving like a mature person .. don't waste our time.
And Boeing's CEO called the 737Max the safest airplane ever made. Clearly this is 100% true because a obviously biased person said so. The 50 rockets a year thing was news from 2 years ago. Since then, the CZ-8 has launched twice in those 2 years. Clearly we're seeing the rapid stages of a massive 50x production ramp up in process. At this rate, it might take ?? years?
Again, what use of there for a 50 CZ-8 a year when a handful of reusable rockets can do the job? And every launch a reusable rocket makes is just more data for better landing and engineering. Every launch the CZ-8 takes from a reusable rocket is just slowing the entire industry down.
you seems forget. Chinese usually don't announce anything prior. its very rare from CNSA. that is USA style. and you are comparing USA with China ... interesting. LOL
if he said so, it means CNSA will achieve this.. not now but in near future..
And than what the point? If they take 5 years to do so, those 50 CZ-8 a year will be launching into a crowded market where there's a dozen different reusable rockets models in service, all completing for launchpads. The only time it makes sense is 10 years ago, when reusable rockets in China were many years away. Or if you think that China's own efforts in reusable rockets are doomed to fail and be delayed until the mid 2030s.
Do note that it will really only take a model of reusable rocket to entire service to dominate the launch market, like we see with SpaceX. And even then, the nature of reusability means that you don't need that many rockets. SpaceX is out launching the rest of the world with like 12 F9 boosters, with each are launching more then a dozen times. So out of the dozen different models and companies popping up, it just takes 1 to be successful to basically take over the chinese launch market in short order. There's a dozen of them and the chokepoint is gonna be in launchpads and payloads, reversing a entire launchpad for the CZ-8 that can't seem to launch more then once a year is just a massive waste.
And China is going to be racing for it's Starship to try to catch up to SpaceX anyway by the end of the decade. The CZ-8 and it's mega-factory capable of producing 50 of them is just gonna end up being a stranded investment, even if they start producing 50 rockets a year from 2024.
This is like coal mining companies saying that coal mining is the future of energy in China and that they are investing heavily to be able to mine and increase their supply of coal hundreds of times to supply China's growth in energy demand. They're delusional if they can't see that while coal is the backbone of China's energy supply today, it's also a field that China is clearly moving away from very fast and the future is rewenables and nuclear.